Red Sea Rising

Remember the eighties? When so many things happened, practically the face and history of Pakistan was changed. The debates about Islamization, Afghanistan and Russia affected everyone. At the time, General Ziaul Haq took a number of decisions that are criticized, mostly negatively, even today. His iron fist rule that denied two elections (him dying before the second elections could be postponed) and his implementation of the shariah are constant thorns in the sides of secular Pakistani’s. Much abused, these rules are very controversial, and extremely difficult to counter with Pakistan’s legal system. Despite all this, has anyone ever thought that it might actually be necessary to impose such laws and constitutional amendments in order to protect the sovereignty of Pakistan?

The cold war promised us this, that Russia would spread its communist influence in Afghanistan. At the time when Russia invaded Afghanistan in order to help its Marxist government and imminent threat to Pakistan evolved. With the USSR holding considerable influence and military power, as well as India being a hostile state following generally the same communist principles, it became necessary for Pakistan to procure external help and protect it’s sovereignty. At the time, as today, the United States was a preeminent counter the communism, and at the forefront of the fight against the USSR and it’s influence across the world. Pakistan, even before partition, had received support and naturally associated itself with the United States ideologically. Despite being an Islamic state, Pakistan’s outlook was capitalist and secular and Bhutto’s apparent Islamic socialist ideals were clearly rejected by money making influentials. It was because of these overt principles, and a few covert ones that the Government of Pakistan needed to take drastic measures to save itself from a threat from two borders.

India, with its unstable government (which was built on emotional maneuvers by J.P. Narayan), was already a hostile state and had needed to take the people's attention off internal affairs and onto Pakistan. The people of India still hold a grudge against Pakistan for its creation. At the time, because of the not too distant Bangladesh issue, sentiments were high and local political tremors (mostly because of the alleged political arrests in the Indira Gandhi government) were felt all over. These needed to be focused on something external. Therefore, it became imperative that Pakistan take sides to protect itself against two threats, one anti-capitalist and one anti-separatist.

Because of Pakistan’s links with China, and the residue of Bhutto’s socialist influence, Pakistan could not expressly deny communism, at least militarily. Although China disagreed on a number of the Kremlin’s principles, they were expressly communist. Fortunately, because China was pro-Pakistan, and the US had already made secret deals with China, a natural alliance was already beginning to form in the region. Unlike the people of India, the people of Pakistan were progressive faster economically, and therefore did not care much about international relations. Two large, covert, political blocks were forming which promised military strength to developing countries, like India and Pakistan, and greater political influence to developed countries, like the US and the USSR.

Based on the prevalent regional scenario, and mentioned above, it was imperative for Pakistan to take a two pronged approach. One, to preemptively counter the threat of a Russian invasion into Pakistan, at least into the Northern Areas, and two, to preemptively argue an arms race with India in order to ensure a future wall of deterrence, especially nuclear. It seems that General Zia killed two birds with one stone, the huge boulder of Islamization, the inertia of which no one has been able to challenge since the time of Hazrat Omar (RA). He encouraged local Islamists by implementing Hudood laws and giving them the stage to speak. Because their influence had been stifled earlier because of democratic, secular government, such release was not only welcomed, it was seen as the only chance the Mullahs would have in Pakistan to have their say. Because of this, local youths and militias were developed, trained and sent into Afghanistan, along with weapons and training from Pakistan’s military and intelligence services.

All this was backed by American CIA operatives and funding. The brilliance of the strategy was this: As such the Afghans did not need any motivation, the dogma of Jihad was enough, all they needed were weapons and training. With just a tangible push from the Frontier Mullahs and the American CIA, the Afghan danger was taken care of, and with American support for Pakistan in return for its efforts, the Indian threat was countered with the tactic of nuclear deterrence. The lukewarm war in the South Asian region had significantly affected the cold war in the rest of the world.

The present scenario, I believe, is heading the same direction. The block is still the same, and the players are still the same. The sides and the weights have shifted. China has grown into a major player in the world economy, and India is producing manpower and technical support to all who can’t afford it elsewhere. Pakistan is still the same, and its importance is determined by the absolutely beautiful skill of diplomacy that it’s famous for. The United States is still at the same place, using double standards and double edged swords to promote both Pakistan and India, the former by diplomatic patronizing and the latter with economic and military assistance. However, one key player has changed. That is China. Along with Pakistan, China is developing it’s economic independence and military alliances.

The Gawadar port is one of the major trade routes for oil transport in the greater region. With China’s cooperation, and with natural gas reserves, Pakistan can not only become energy independent, but also militarily strong. President Musharraf’s five day visit to China’s top secret facilities and Pakistan’s technical cooperation with China is saving Pakistan a lot of money, and is giving China a natural ally of geo-strategic proportions. In essence, China is attempting to take the strategic place of the US in this region, and is making Pakistan it’s Canada, by making partnerships and strategic alliances, while making India economically dependant upon it by making India it’s Mexico. Along with Russia, a new politico-strategic giant will be formed, comprising Pakistan, China and Russia, which will be countered by the US and India, and perhaps a few countries with American proxy governments, and this will lead to a new cold war.

A ‘hot war’ so to speak, will not occur due to diplomatic tactics and apparent submission of Pakistan to American principles, however, the economic standoff has already begun. Pakistan’s need for oil is offset because of it’s production and import of natural gas, and it’s military needs are filled by manufacturing equipment with China. It appears that in the near future, Pakistan and China will enter the market for air force equipment by selling F-17’s and other aircraft as inexpensive substitutes for F-16s, which are already getting obsolete due to F-10s. India, on the other hand will control technical expertise in terms of market development and ecommerce, providing inexpensive labor to the countries who either are running dangerously low on youth (like Germany) and those who cannot afford it at home (like the United States). Pakistan, on the other hand, pays some of it’s senior managers more than they could get in Dubai.

There is more mismatch and unregistered employment in the job sector in Pakistan than there is actual unemployment. The Pakistani government is directly confronting the sectarian and terrorist insurgency inside its borders and has made it a public issue to economically liberalize Balochistan. India, on the other hand, still faces Hindu-Muslim riots which its government still refuses to acknowledge as an important issue. It is the opinion of this writer that within the next fifty years Pakistan will have resolved the terrorist issue, sent back the Afghan mujahideen and cleaned up the streets of Karachi. With development work and high level privatization, Pakistan will, in fact, technically reach the status of a second world (developing) country. With China’s help, the textile and other manufacturing sectors in Pakistan will become independent of import from outside this region, automatically cutting costs of transport and passport problems associated with the stigma of being a Pakistani and a Muslim.

Fuel costs, border problems and other issues will be considerably reduced and therefore will the end consumer prices. On the other hand, India, the United States and Afghanistan will form an economic alliance based on labour intensive practices, since this is India’s primary qualification. The next one hundred years will see the tables turn, making the west a labor intensive area while Pakistan and China will become capital intensive (because manufacturing will happen locally in China and Pakistan and will then be exchanged inexpensively). Then there is Iran.

With India fast becoming an American ally, and Iran further distancing itself from the US, the only natural option for Iran is to join the Sino-Pak block. This will open Iran to more employment opportunities, access to inexpensive and easily available medicines and military equipment. Pakistan and China will get natural gas, and perhaps a joint nuclear energy production program that will solve the yet to arrive energy crisis. In essence, China and Iran will provide the base, and both countries have proved that they do not require US permission to produce and work on internal or external projects. Pakistan will provide the logistics and diplomatic functions in the face of the United Nations and other international organizations.

Who knows, with Saudia providing free oil, if the Arab block can associate itself with Pakistan, at least economically (if not ideologically, since China is a communist country), then we further not only have a source of energy, but also a greater market for export of goods manufactured in this block.

In conclusion it seems that another Red Sea is rising, however, it is not rising alone. If you look close enough, and from the right historical and strategic perspective, you might yet see a hint of green.