Is Iran Headed for War?

The recent standoff between Iran and EU reminds one about the past situations; the Afghanistan during Taliban and Iraq during Saddam period. And remarkably, both have seen their fates early, with dreadful consequences for the civilians. Let us go back and see what has happened and where it has led Iran and the world

Iran has categorically denied any involvement in nuclear proliferation. It says that its nuclear project is strictly for civilian purposes only. World (essentially, Christian world) can’t believe Iran. And they have a strong reason for it. When Iran was asked about how it got the nuclear technology in the first place, it told media that Pakistan’s nuclear hero Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan had passed it to them. If, one might reason, Iran’s nuclear ambitions are intended for civilian purposes only, why then it went for underground dealing with a lone hero? And why not did Iran get this technology in broad daylight i.e., within full knowledge of world community? Sure enough, Europe feels that Iran had other purpose in mind.

Now that West has come to know of Iran’s nuclear powers, it wants it to abandon it urgently. And they are not prepared to hear any arguments from Iran, whatsoever. With a hardliner in Iran as head of its state, Iran is adamant about its policy. And it says, it will continue enriching uranium for civilian purposes. For this reason Iran faces total isolation from the West. UN is already considering tough sanctions against it. Needless to say, that will be the last blow to an integrated and an independent Iran. And we know from experience that whenever West wants to beat down a Muslim state it first slaps it with a crippling sanctions, followed closely by military attacks; an invasion follows as a course of action. We saw that in Iraq after the Gulf war. Millions died in Iraq due to sanctions; later it was easily defeated by American and British armies. Similar thing happened to Afghanistan. In both cases, brutal killings were followed by invasion. And today America flatly refuses to leave these countries. We now ask ourselves, Is Iran next?

Let us see what fallout, if any, this standoff between Iran and West can potentially create. The major looming disaster, as we know from history is obvious: War. But who will proclaim war on Iran, a country that has got a long experience in it (Iran-Iraq war)? To answer this question we will have to look at Iran’s relations with the countries that might take part in Iran war in the future.

America is the first country that comes to mind. It hates Iran and it has made no bones about it. And the reasons are economic rather than political or religious; it wants oil and gas. But, is it possible for America to fall into yet another death trap after quagmires in Afghanistan and Iraq? Probably not. Its resources are dying, its men are not willing to sacrifice their lives for America, and it is deeply unpopular in the Muslim world. Another war with a Muslim country could mean a more dangerous world for Americans (not to say about the escalation of oil prices). And America knows well that the results of the war don’t come that fast. So off course, it will try to use someone else (like it used Iraq against Iran; or Iraq against Kuwait or Pakistan against Afghanistan). Who will then become the next puppet for America this time around? Europe? Maybe.

And it is easy to see why. Europe, especially France is at loss of words over Iran issue. It was Iran’s closest partner during its war with Iraq. Yet today, France feels betrayed by Iran’s refusal to stop Uranium enrichment program in Iran. And it is not happy. Similarly, other countries in Europe, notably England and Germany are also not glad to see Iran stand up on its own feet (and become a nuclear power). It is here, perhaps in France, that US may find its best partner for war against Iran. Though the combination looks unlikely, but to understand this possible consortium of countries against Iran, one can go back and see what happened in Gulf war 1. America, with its lies and intense public relations, managed to bring together powerful countries against Iraq. Today, America has got yet another chance of a war with Iran. And this time it has too many bases (army and otherwise) and basis (reasons) for it. Will EU fall for American trap this time? Probably yes. Because Europe can’t imagine yet another Muslim country getting nuclear technology up and working.

Apart from Europe, what is the possibility of Pakistan going against war with Iran? Pakistan is the best country to attack Iran. It has American troops on its western borders, which were brought to keep in check the Taliban forces in East Afghanistan. The only problem that may arise on that border might be the Baloch factor. They live on both sides of the border, so naturally they may try to protect their ‘brothers’ across the border. But the question is whether Pakistan will ever allow them to use its borders or not.

If history is a good judge then I can say with some surety that Pakistan will allow Americans to attack Iran from Pakistan border. In fact, it might well become a proxy state for the Americans like it did during the Afghan war against Russia.

But before throwing the country into that (senseless) war, Mr. Musharraf will have to imagine the consequences of the war. For one thing, he will find himself increasingly isolated, as was the case when he decided to join America’s war on terror. In fact, he may face an increased risk from his own officers, because some of them happen to be Shias. This last bit can easily add a religious face to a thoroughly military/political problem. And that is the last thing Musharraf wants at home. Already his un-wavering support for the Americans has seen his popularity drop down. Iran shall be the last nail on his presidency’s coffin.

What about Afghanistan taking part in Iran war. Probably Karzai will agree as he is a confirmed puppet of the Americans. But his power in Afghanistan is centred around Kabul only. The rest of the country is lawless; some parts still have Taliban as their rulers. So Karzai could be of limited help towards Iran war, if any.

This takes us to Arab states. Will they take part in such a war effort from the West? It should depend on the agreement among various Arab states, and on the present situation at home. Saudi Arab is a confirmed enemy of Iran. And the reasons are religious. The Wahabi Saudi establishment does not like Iran’s Shia government; Iran’s shia wants Islam’s Holiest lands in their hands. Perhaps, war can decide who will keep what. And America will be up, playing with religious sentiments of the two nations. But Saudi Arab faces an up hill task here. If it allows Americans to launch war from its shores, it will mean an open invitation to people like Osama to freely attack Saudi forces inside country. Even if Saudis only pay for the Iran war (as they paid for the Gulf war) they will have to face the music at home.

What about other states like Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Lebanon? Of the mentioned countries probably only Kuwait might be willing to allow American soldiers to attack Iran. But being a small country it might not be of much help in America’s war effort against Iran. Not to mention the dangers of taking part in it.

This leads us to Turkey. Turkey is a confirmed partner of America in war against terror (or more appropriately, against Muslims). It is desperately seeking EU membership and will not stop of anything short if it can fulfil its EU membership dreams. And if Europe decides to attack Iran, Turkey shall be an important partner in that war. And after Pakistan, Turkey is the only country that can be utilized nicely against Iran (due to its western border with Iran).

Another place that can be used against Iran is Iraq. This time Iraq is not in the hands of puppet government as it was during Iran-Iraq war when Saddam was ruling it. Today, it has its own set of leaders. Unfortunately for Americans, most of them are Shias and sympathise with their Iranian brethren. This is a potential conflict of interest in the region. Though Iraq shares an important border with Iran it shall still be of minor use to the Americans against Iran, primarily due to rampant insurgency there.

So, who will fight this proxy war for Americans or/and Europeans. Israel? Probably yes. It has had too much of Iran’s military claims. And it is genuinely afraid of Iran’s potential nuclear threat to its own expansionist plans in the region. Iran is the last country that separates Israel from a total annihilation of Muslims in Arab world. And it dearly hates Iran for that. Given the chance Israel might attack Iran at the least of provocations (in fact, there are stories – real or imagined – that say Israel is planning such an attack on Iran). And given Israeli might (all bought from American aid of $ 3 billion per year aid) it might not even think about any consequences of the war.

What can Iran do to avert this looming and largely possible war? Compromise? Perhaps with so much at stake and with so many bad relations in the world, Iran has started resembling Taliban’s Afghanistan or Saddam’s Iraq. And already we have seen that Muslims countries are fast distancing themselves from Iran. It is clear that Iran does not have any choice except to accept EU’s proposals. In this way Iran will save itself from the looming UN sanctions. It will also help Iran in economic terms. Iran will be able to export more oil, gas and consumer goods to European and Asian markets. Will that solve all of Iran’s political and economic problems? Hardly. But meanwhile it will save Iran from a total disaster.

A long term strategy is needed by Iran to keep itself away from future dangers. One of those strategies involves building an oil pipeline to Pakistan. Pakistan has consistently said that it will go ahead with the pipeline even if India is not interested. And with the recent visit of President Bush to India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. And after that offer India is fast looking in other direction, although some of the analysts still insist that India being a major energy consumer will need lots of energy to continue with its boom. But it remains to be seen, and after getting green signal from President Bush (not necessarily Congress) India is fairly content with the nuclear fuel energy that has been promised to it.

But another twist to the story is that China has finally come to the door of Iran. It has asked Iran to chalk out a permanent deal that could ensure energy coming to China non-stop. Happy with such a situation Iran has jumped on the wagon. And why should it not be so. Iran knows well that through it it will be able to stop the menace of America for a while. It also knows that it has to sell all that energy before another group of energies are introduced in consumer markets, say for example Solar energy. And in any case, Iran needs money desperately to keep an edge over other countries in development and purchasing of arsenal. It has to, as Israel has become increasingly threatening to its survival.

Isolation in any case will not help Iran’s case. It must ensure that its ties get strengthened with China, India, Pakistan and Russia. Remember Russia. It was defeated because it was isolated completely. Iran must not allow the similar strategy to be played against it by the wily Americans.