The Nawaiwaqt Generation and the Power of No!

“What is this civil society crap? Sindhis and the Balochis fought the army for the last 40 years and they are not the civil society but the Punjabis who just woke up, are the civil society!” I asked. It was a gathering of some old friends and as usual we were discussing politics and the changing political situation in Pakistan. Sounds like you forgot about the Nawaiwaqt, someone laughingly pointed out. The lightening struck. I jump up and raised my glass to that friend. Yes, now I know the infamous “civil society” that has been quoted so frequently by every one for the last one year! So should I just call it the “Nawaiwaqt Generation,” I asked again. People agreed that I would not be far off if I did!

I am not the only one who is perplexed by the term civil society that has rapidly gained coinage in Pakistan. The civil society consist of middle class Punjabis mostly from Lahore and the other urban areas of Punjab. They are Lawyers, Teachers, Bankers, Students, and other professionals. This had always been the group from Punjab that had seemingly eternally supported the army in the last 50 years, yet it turned against the army overwhelmingly over the Chief Justice issue and practically turned Pakistan’s political fortunes around in matter of days.

President Musharraf, who looked so good right until the end of February 2007 that people could not figure out a way to remove him from the office, was a bumbling, incoherent, almost idiotic General on the 10th of March after the Chief Justice refused to take orders from him. Nothing that Musharraf and his political friends did or connived after March 10th worked for them. Finally on February 18th 2008, they had conceded defeat in the elections and are now fighting a battle which they are bound to lose as they have not won a single political battle in the last one year!

Before Jang opened offices in Lahore couple of decades ago, Nawaiwaqt was the Newspaper of choice for Lahore and the Punjabi middle class. Lahore boasted many progressive papers both in English and Urdu before the 1958 coup, yet none ever reached the kind of influence or circulation that Nawaiwaqt enjoyed.

While Jang was a Jamaat Islami influenced newspaper, Nawaiwaqt was always considered closer to the Pakistan establishment, especially the army. The army enjoyed enormous respect in Punjab and for a long time politicians from the smaller provinces thought they would never be able to break the army stronghold over the political situation in Punjab. But as luck would have it, the newspaper that was considered the mouthpiece of the army was now the newspaper that had created a generation that though intellectually closer to the Nawaiwaqt support of the army, yet politically did not agree with the Junta rule of the country especially after 9/11 and the army U turn after that dreadful day!

Listen to Nawaz Sharif carefully, he speaks the language used by Nawaiwaqt against Musharraf, take note of the lawyers speaking in the Bar Councils and they use the postulations found in Nawaiwaqt op-ed columns. Pay closer attention to what Imran Khan says and the voice of Nawaiwaqt echoes in his tirades for the rule of law. Listen to Aitzaz Ahsan, generally more intelligent than the rest and find Nawaiwaqt expressions creeping in his speeches!

While the Nawaiwaqt might have provided the intellectual fodder to this new breed of Pakistani nationalists who insist on rule of law, civilian rule, perhaps democracy, and sending the army back to the barracks; the real change is the rapidly changing economic realities in Punjab.

For more than 100 years the sons of small landowners and the poor peasants in Punjab found jobs first in the British Indian army and then in the Pakistan army. For a long time, Punjab and the army interests became synonymous! Whenever Bengal had to say something against the army, it used Punjab as the metaphor. Sindhi, Baloch, and Pushtoon all were unanimous that it was the Punjab that was exploiting them. The reality as most knowledgeable politicians knew was the army that was eating up Pakistan’s resources and in return providing jobs to only the Punjabi youth.

In the 70s, the Bhutto government opened up the Middle East for the job hunters from Pakistan and swiftly people from Punjab started taking up whatever was offered to them. In the coming decades the reliance on the army for the jobs reduced and a new breed of Punjabis came alive that did not depend on the army for the livelihood. The army began to look for recruits in the other areas and the nature of its political influence in Punjab changed. New businesses developed who either relied on the Punjabis outside of Pakistan or had made money outside and were now investing in Pakistan. The War on Terror that played havoc in FATA, brought ton load of money that was invested in Punjab and parts of NWFP. With the change in economic reliance the need for the army reduced and the army support in the urban areas weakened. A new breed of Punjabis was ready to finance politicians who would bring more business to the cities and who would not hesitate to use the government money to invest in infrastructure to facilitate their businesses. This is still a class that is learning to stand up on its feet, yet is not afraid to take chances against the army rule.

The lame politicians like Aitazaz Ahsan who had spent years in Assemblies doing nothing, all of a sudden found some people pushing them to stand up to the army. The Sharifs who had run away from the country now were looking for ways to come back. While Benazir felt making a deal with the army would help her come back, the Sharifs thought they could bully their way back in the country. They initially failed but not for long!

Political changes follow changing economic realities and the politicians fight to make the economic changes permanent.

The army in Pakistan had the sole control over the money and resources. Now the new capital in Punjab wants to share the resources with the army or if possible get a complete control over the resources. The resources that have multiplied over the last several years are the bone of contention. The army which was never willing to share the loot with the smaller provinces in the country is now confronted with new business from Punjab which sees the smaller provinces as potential markets and would love to increase buying power in the far flung areas of the country.

The provincial autonomy which was considered a crime next only to blasphemy in the 70s and 80s in Lahore, now is a welcome commodity. The Feudal elitists in Punjab have given way to the grouchier in the urban areas and the Lawyers have become guerrilla warfare experts.

The Power of ‘NO’!

The Muslims believe when God created Adam, he wanted the Angels to bow before him. All complied but one and the closest Angel to God, now known as Shaitan, said No! With that simple No, he became an equal of God and now the entire corps of God’s prophets had only one job and that was to tell people how bad the Shaitan was!

Sometime in the early March, 2007 the Chief Justice of the Pakistan Supreme Court said No to the COAS of the Pakistan Army an almost God like creature in Pakistan and instantly became the COAS equal in the country. It was an unheard of refusal! No Chief Justice had ever said No to the army Generals. One PM did and he ended up on the gallows. Some in Bengal did and the whole Bengal paid a heavy price, some small and unheard of political operatives in the smaller provinces did and they died in the army brigs and the army occupied historical forts. Lastly, Sardar Bugti did and a cave collapsed on him!

The times have since changed. Instead of sending the Chief Justice to the gallows, the army Generals eschewed their pride and sent him home forcibly. When that did not work, the Army Chief imprisoned the Chief Justice and his family. Now even that is not working. The Chief Justice after saying No to the COAS, is his equal and you cannot keep an equal down for a long time. In the semi feudal societies when the equals fight, they fight to eliminate the other.

The refusal by the CJ was not the beginning of the crisis it was the culmination of a clash that was brewing under the surface since the day the army made the U turn. The U turn that was not acceptable to the Nawaiwaqt Generation as they did not believe they had any thing to do with 9/11. Except that they were never aware of what the Pak army was doing in and around the neighborhood for a longtime. And appropriately, the reason for the CJ crisis was his quest to find out the missing persons. Missing persons who were used by the army as fodder in Afghanistan and Kashmir and some of them illegally taken on the rendition flights in the CIA planes. The raison d’etre was set for the fight and the CJ stood up to take the cudgel!

Is the fight over?

The election results and the apparent resolve of the political parties would let people believe that. However, this is just the beginning of a new phase. The army had controlled the country for the last 50 years and it would not give up that control easily.

Imtiaz Alam, a prominent left leaning commentator writing in daily Jang recommended a compromise. But the moderate to almost rightwing Sharifs and the Lawyers disagree and vow to continue the fight. This is the state of politics in Pakistan. The left which fought the establishment for years is now looking for a compromise but the right which always stood by the army wants a confrontation.

Parag Khanna speaking to a Pakistani cable channel emphasized Pakistan’s strategic situation. The curse of being on the crossroads will keep Pakistan in the crosshair too.

The US is faltering in Iraq and Afghanistan; the election results in Pakistan have been a blow to the overall US strategy in the area. The GWOT has almost backfired on the US policy makers. The Pak army and the US have to find ways to correct the situation in Pakistan. They will bully, buy, coerce, and intimidate their way back in to the mainstream. More than the US itself, which is not looking for a major upheaval in the area during the election year, the Pak army would be hard pressed not to give up its position to milk the GWOT for financial gains.

The Pakistani politicians and their business supporters see the greenbacks too and they too want the US to know that they will not backtrack on the GWOT. John Negroponte is now talking about tripling the aid to Pakistan while still intimidating the politicians about the dangers of making a deal with the Taliban by sending missiles down the known hideouts. The Taliban are suicide bombing to intimidate the politicians. The situation is already complex. The politicians at the helms have little experience and many traps are being set for them.

The next few months would be crucial and if a resolution is not reached or no one blinks, then we may see an epic battle in Islamabad, which could perhaps see a repeat of Chile of 1973!