A Fatal Act-Bad News for India Pakistan Relations

The assassination of Indian Defence Attache in Kabul on 7th July 2008 is a watershed in the ongoing undeclared low intensity war in Afghanistan.

Reportedly the suicide car bomber followed a diplomat's
vehicle and detonated the explosives at the building's main entrance, only 30 yards from where dozens of Afghans had lined up to apply for visas.

The blast was the deadliest in Kabul since the fall of the Taliban in 2001. Nearly 150 other people were wounded. The incident was a routine one if Brigadier S.D Mehta the key victim did not belong to the Indian Army’s Intelligence Corps. Thus Mehta's assassination was no random event just like assassination of any Pakistan key diplomatic military figure would not be in Kabul.

To compound the situation, Mehta had also at one time been head of military intelligence in the insurgency-hit region of Jammu and Kashmir .

History as the old quote says never moves in zig zag lines. In this case the zig zag rule appears not to have been followed! This blast was not business as usual. The act was committed on the most guarded road in Kabul. One which has only two entrances and all vehicles are
checked on both entrances.

The Indian vehicular movement had a pattern as diplomatic corps vehicles generally enter the embassies between 8 and 9 in the morning. The possibility that Mehta was observed and his final solution war gamed cannot be ruled out. In Kabul as far as I have seen most defence attaches other than American use diplomatic plates.

In low intensity war as in all other wars no war is a single act war. And the Mehta episode will once again merely reaffirm this fact. Security is not foolproof and there are always unattended sides which can be exploited by motivated and thorough perpetrators.What happened in this case was however unique because till 07 July 2008 it was one of the undeclared rules in the ongoing undeclared war that no major sub continental targets were attacked in Kabul.
The Mehta episode has however changed the whole scenario.

It is the beginning of a new act. A bitter and bloody act. Who did it is not as important as the fact that Indo Pak relations will be badly affected.Thus no credit to whoever committed this silly act. Diplomats are soft targets that can be hit but this is against the rules of the game. Some say that murder is not the best revenge.

Mehta's Kashmir connection and intelligence background certainly could be a factor in his bloody fate.But Mehta was an individual. His assassination is only the beginning of
a new chapter.A rude realisation that policy is being conducted by crude simpletons who are either mindless fools or clever conspirators who want to intensify India Pakistan
rivalry.

It is no secret that Afghanistan is one of the favourite proxy battlegrounds of India and Pakistan since 1947. It is also well known that India has been accused by many
in Pakistan of being involved in sabotage activities in Pakistan using Afghanistan and Tajikistan as a firm base.

All this complicates the situation and is going to harm the India Pakistan rapprochement if there was ever one.

India sees a change in Pakistan's policy over Kashmir and apprehensions have been expressed in Indian policy making circles and think-tanks that the infiltration in Kashmir with active Pakistani state support may be resumed as a policy in the near future.

Pakistan is going through a crisis which can lead to a major breakdown in the near future or a martial law.Seen in this context Mehta's assassination is no feather in anyone's cap! Its a faux pas par excellence by anyone, by any group, any country or any agency that planned it!

Pakistan needs a statesman to steer it out of troubled waters. Unfortunately there is none. On the other hand all factors indicate that a well planned international conspiracy is going on to discredit Pakistan's democratic government and once again bring back Pakistan's military junta into power. Not a good omen for Pakistan and its people. Pakistan remains condemned to darkness and Mehta's assassination is another nail in Pakistan's coffin.