Pakistan’s Prevailing Political And Economic Mess

Pakistan’s prevailing political and economic mess, what is the solution?

By Mehroz Siraj Sadruddin

Many people believed that a peaceful and democratic election held on February 18, would play a vital role in getting Pakistan out of the political crisis in which it had been stumbling into for quite some time. The high electoral mandate given to the Pakistan People’s Party and the Pakistan Muslim League—Nawaz, is enough to prove the point that the people of Pakistan were actually buying the words of the leaders of the two parties.

Many people actually believed that the dismissed judges of the higher judiciary would be reinstated without any serious constitutional complications. People believed Mr Zardari and Mr Nawaz Sharif when they said that they would turn the tables on inflation, poverty, increasing suicide rates, illiteracy and politically speaking, the most important thing, military authoritarianism.

However, at the time of this writing, nearly six months after the election, the real situation on the ground, is starkly different. The reinstatement of the judiciary has become a more politicised issue where it simply requires one single executive ordinance to get implementation.
The differences between the leaders of the coalition government on the reinstatement of the judges have come out openly.

Nawaz Sharif’s perceived rock solid and defiant stance on the issue has indeed shifted. He has given in to the various political pressures operating on him and is now willing to accept the post-emergency PCO judges in the judiciary.

Inflation has once again taken the centre stage in Pakistan’s economic and political turmoil. At the time of this writing, inflation was already going way above the roof. Natural gas prices have been increased by 31 per cent and diesel prices have hiked by ten per cent. The prices of petrol have been increased five times this year.

Petrol, which was around Rs 53 in February, is now being priced at Rs 75.69 per litre. Natural Gas, CNG which was being sold at Rs 33 per kilogram in February, is now being sold in between Rs 43 and Rs 53 in the country. Other than that, in the melting heat of summer, frequent power shortages have added considerably to the ever increasing list of woes of innocent and hard-working Pakistanis.

The government is correct to an extent in claiming that due to high international oil prices, fighting inflation has become a difficult task and that more subsidies on petrol, gas and electricity cannot be sustained financially.

However, there are many structural and political measures that the government can and should have already taken by now.

The recent issue over CNG pricing clearly shows the limits of the government’s writ when it comes to enforcing stable prices around the country. In the last budget, the government should have come up with certain positive initiatives which would have eased some of the pressures at the markets, the petrol stations and most essentially, at the kitchens across Pakistani households.

The Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) that the government has launched recently, though a laudable incentive, is highly insufficient. With rising inflation, the Rs 1000 package may be next to nothing, not even peanuts. Food prices have risen substantially over the last few months.

On April 15, for instance, The News newspaper reported that the government had increased the price of wheat being supplied to millers, from Rs 465 per 40kg, to Rs 625 per 40kg. This has led to the increase in the market prices of wheat substantially.

A second wave of a wheat crisis may not be too far. According to media reports, wheat, which was being sold at up to Rs 18 per kg in February, is now being sold for around Rs 22 per kg, a hefty 22 per cent increase. Along with the 31 per cent hike in CNG prices, there has also been a 38 per cent hike in fuel prices. All this, along with the increasing scale of violence in the North West and the increasing political uncertainty in the country has driven business confidence to a historic low. The World Bank recently estimated the real economic growth of the country to be only a paltry 3.5 per cent for the ongoing financial year.

The ironic reality at the moment is that all these things are unfolding under a government which was talking about bringing relief to the people.

One may correctly argue that the wrongs done by the democratically defeated turncoat regime of General Musharraf over the last five years, cannot be corrected in a short period of six months, but however, by all means considered the current government does not even seem to be on the right path.

Just like its predecessors, the current government is not strongly resolving to take the right initiatives. Because of its many drawbacks, BISP may be taken as a token measure only.

Long term initiatives need careful analysis, thought, research and political will to be successfully implemented. It would surely take time for the government to completely grasp the situation and come with suitable measures. However, in order to achieve that, the government needs to have two basic things, short term tactics and initiatives to fight inflation and increase economic activity by providing the much needed political stability and a team of committed, non politicised and efficient group of economists, sociologists and researchers who can provide the government with the much needed research based knowledge, which is so important to make well-informed long term strategies.

At the moment, both these things are missing. The government and the foreign embassies are being stuffed and staffed with the loyalists of Mr Zardari and Mian Nawaz Sharif. Government appointments need to be done on the basis of merit and experience only. If the government continues to do appointments on the basis of favours and loyalties, then the people of Pakistan might be in for greater economic miseries amidst greater political uncertainty and collapse of law and order.

Announcing some short term initiatives is very necessary. The government must work out measures to reduce the costs of doing business and work towards creating new decent paying jobs. This is the best way the government can empower the masses to fight inflation. Strong public-private partnerships in this regard would be highly valuable. The government should provide reasonable subsidies on energy to businesses. This, where on the one hand would significantly bring down the cost of doing business, there on the other hand, the booming small businesses would create many new jobs.

The challenges that this new government faces at the moment, are many. The government is right in asking the people of Pakistan for more time, but what is missing, is the much needed leadership skills and qualities that leaders like Z.A. Bhutto once honed. From the current cream of leadership, there is not a single politician in sight who has the much needed ideal combination of charisma, hard-work, leadership skills and the courage to take strong decisions.

As said earlier, the government must now work towards first getting on the right track. The government’s rank and file must comprise of competent and efficient politicians, economists, etc. and the government shall now put its foot down on dealing with corruption, inflation and illiteracy, along with all other socio-economic problems which currently afflict our society. It is high time that we get serious about putting our own house in order.