No Short Cuts to End Terrorism

The terrorist attack on Mumbai has shaken India to the core. All the earlier hit and run or suicide bombings, including the twin towers at New York were over in minutes or hours unlike this one that was a commando type penetration attack with new developments occurring every few minutes. Every Indian was therefore glued to their TV’s for 59 hours followed by many hours of analysis and recriminations. Thus the sense of outrage grew with every passing minute almost as if the nation was witnessing itself being gang raped hour after hour after agonizing hour. It was therefore no surprise that there was such a huge feeling of outrage against the lapses of the intelligence and security services, the custodians of law as well as all the politicians and officials who were supposed to manage them.

Having seen what huge havoc a small handful of terrorists could do everyone is volubly insisting that something must be done to prevent such things happening again and there are strident demands for better intelligence, better weapons, better communications equipment, better security screening, more security personnel, better coordination and more of everything that might make life more secure.

Unfortunately the attack has also shown that all the familiar old systems are now hopelessly obsolete and will fail if again put to the test. We need better trained, equipped and managed defenders but simply increasing the numbers is no answer because if the entire force of 1.3 million active soldiers of the Indian army were deployed in just the state of Maharashtra there would be only 4.2 soldiers per Sq Km to protect the 308,000 Sq Kms of the state. Thus increasing the numbers of army, police or other security personnel will not ensure protection to every city, coast, port, airport, station, ship, oil depot, bank, hotel, cinema, market and defense or other installations.

It is also very easy to condemn intelligence failures but here too there are no easy answers because the numerous security agencies are often on different trajectories with different masters but they are also quite easy to fool with the huge volume of false, mischievous and deliberately deceptive messages they have to try to digest every day. After the event it may be easy the track back some of the clues but before an incident occurs it is very difficult to determine what is false or genuine. Much more can be done but cosmetic restructuring of the Home Ministry and its many agencies will not help very much.

Media has clearly shown us how inadequate the weapons and equipment of the defenders were. Apart from wooden lathis their few bulky World War II 303’s that fired about 10 rounds a minute were hopelessly outclassed by the AK47’s that can fire 600 rounds a minute. Even worse, we do not even know if these weapons had fresh or sufficient ammunition or whether the cops had any regular training in their use. The cops also lacked lightweight flack jackets and carried bulky and obsolete communications equipment. Small secure `hands-free’ systems should have been used if helmets were not to be removed as we saw in the fatal case of the ATS chief Hemant Karkare. Technologies are changing so fast and the Government’s procurement process is so slow that it is probable that terrorists, smugglers and poachers will always be better equipped than the defenders but there is no need for our security personnel to be so hopelessly outclassed.

A thorough scrutiny at entrances of airports, stations, ports, hotels, cinemas, etc., may help a little. Cars are now being more thoroughly checked but every car would need a check of over an hour including the ripping up of the upholstery to absolutely ensure that there were no explosives under or inside the seats or in the other nooks and crannies of every vehicle. A determined and intelligent attacker would be able penetrate almost any defense but the task can be made very much more difficult.

Drastic situations need drastic measures. Several long postponed reforms need to be implemented especially identity cards for every Indian national to identify of the millions of Bangladeshis, Nepalis and Pakistanis who can penetrate India’s porous borders. Better checking on SIM card enrollment, mobile and internet traffic is being done but nothing is being done to check the huge number of stolen cars and motorcycles frequently used by terrorists or criminals especially as terrorists usually use the criminal underbelly of every society. The long delayed system for connecting all the many Regional Transport Authorities to a central computer to monitor the issuance of driving licenses and the registration of vehicles throughout the country needs to be urgently implemented as well as the theft proof digitalized number plates over which the states have also been dragging their feet.

Surprise is vital to success both in attack and defense. So attackers should be given as few sitting targets as possible. The movements of VIP’s should be subjected to constant and unpredictable change as also the security systems at the immovable establishments. Regular routines of surprise inspections and mock attack simulations and war games will keep the defenders on their toes. The generally lethargic public should also be involved in some of these exercises to make them much more vigilant to sources of danger than they are today. And if these are televised it will make the wider public much more alert. If the special security for most VIP’s, that are mostly expensive status symbols, were withdrawn they would demand better security systems for every citizen.

Modern, not very expensive, surveillance systems are very useful at all sensitive places but there is need for many more of them and for many dummy CCTV cameras so that terrorists and criminals do not know where they will be watched. If these installations are Government property many will not be properly maintained so the service needs to be outsourced. There should clearly defined accountability and negligence or delays should attract strong immediate punishment. Today there are millions of digital cameras and camera phones everywhere and if the public could earn a bounty on every crime or suspicious activity they spot the public would happily become a part of the security system and there would be a huge and inexpensive addition to criminal surveillance.

Attackers are also confident of slow Government reaction. The elite NSG is located near the capital and needs many hours to get to any trouble spot but even the local police in any town are incredibly lethargic. A routine of regular war games will help wake them up. Like Turkey, faced with Kurd terrorism, we can have roving squads of armed two man teams on motorcycles capable of reaching any trouble spot in minutes. All these will not eliminate terrorists or criminals but they will make life much more difficult for them and make them less willing as terrorist recruits.