Afghanistan Strategic Choices for USA and Regional Actors

The distinction between Islamist and non Islamists is being fast transformed into US versus Anti US Forces. Afghanistan may prove to be an area of strategic convergence for Islamists, China, Russia and even Pakistan and Iran which are logically phase two US targets.

It is naive to think that the USA came to Afghanistan to deal with the Talibs.


USA's choices

1-Deal with Afghanistan alone and consolidate. This would not be cost effective for USA. The investment it has made is too big.

2-Widen the front to phase two. Pakistan and Iran. Phase three may be Chinese Singkiang and Phase Four Central Asian Republics.

3-Withdraw from Afghanistan while retaining a central position to strike at any target in the area. Possibly an independent Baloch state carved out of Iran and Pakistan or Iran alone at first and Pakistani Baluchistan later.


China and Russia's Choices

1-Allow USA an uncontested stay and risk a Muslim rising in Singkiang in the next ten years and US domination of Central Asian republics.

2-Aid anti US forces using non state actors in Pakistan and state actors in other areas. Strengthen alliances with Iranian and Pakistani states.


Pakistan and Iran's choices

1-Accept US domination and scrap WMD programmes.

2-Strengthen alliances with China and Russia.

3-Aid anti US forces in Afghanistan with Chinese and Russian blessings.


Major Actors

1-The anti US forces are divided in two parts , state and non state actors.

2-Main bases of non state actors are in Pakistan, Iran and Middle East.

3-The Pakistani and Iranian states are the forward states having direct borders with Afghanistan and are involved in the Afghan game via state and non state actors.


Strategic trends

1-Realisation in Pakistan that Pakistani WMD apparatus is a future target of USA with Afghanistan as base.

2-Realisation in both China and Russia that the strategic salvation of both lies in aiding anti US groups, particularly in Afghanistan.

3-Pakistan as the best base area of anti US groups operating in Afghanistan more because of non state actors.

4-In order to deal with non state actors USA at some stage will have to deal with both Pakistan and Iran. USA seems strategically clueless and is playing a waiting game.

5-Time is the key, anti US forces can wait for ten years but every second USA is losing money.

6-USA has to achieve a tangible strat objective.

7-Both China and Russia will use the Islamic card like USA used it in Afghanistyan from 1979 till 1989.

8-Militarily an anti US war in Afghanistan aided by China and Russia can prove to be USA's Spanish ulcer. Anti US forces in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran are intact and can change the strat balance. US hold in Afghanistan is confined to key cities.

9-The drug mafia is a major US opponent and can sustain anti US forces in Afghanistan.

10-Islamists have realised that they must have China and Russia as allies.

11-The same realisation is taking place in China and Russia.
Thus the convergence of interest.


US strategic options are:--

1-To create alternate drug mafia which is non Pashtun and create new states which are US allies. Interdict drug supplies of Taliban thus reducing their financial potential thus reducing their military effectiveness.

2-Create a non Pashtun state in North Afghanistan retaining bases there while withdrawing from South Afghanistan.