Islamabad Nagging

The rhetoric out of Islamabad, after the recent visit by Mr. Holbrooke and Adm. Mullen, has been a defiant one. They claim to have refused to allow American boots on Pakistani soil and insisted that the drone attacks should cease. The same day, Pakistani ambassador in Washington asked for 30 billion dollars to fight against militants.

The US has stated some goals for Pakistan, including, democracy and transparency. Democracy has recently been installed as the ruling elite waits for the aid to arrive, but the demand for transparency sounds odd to them. They are used to enriching themselves of such international aid in lieu of their services to the donor countries.

State of violence in the country is such that the elected representatives hide from the electorate. There is this violent picture of Pakistan, internationally and locally, which scares every Pakistani, specially the huge majority that lives in poverty. The poor and the weak perish first in conflicts and those who survive are displaced. The rich have safe havens abroad.

The changed attitude in Islamabad reflects the dissatisfaction of the military and the ruling elite, over the US demands for democracy, transparency and the sovereignty of civilian rule. Such demands have thrown the equilibrium of power in the country in doubt and the most powerful is flexing muscles and showing off anger by demanding that the drone strikes be stopped and claiming that they will not allow foreign soldiers on their soil.

It is common knowledge among the people of Pakistan that the drone strikes were mutually agreed upon between the US and Pakistan military. They had expected the rest of the deal to go through without a hitch as well. But the US insistence on unseating the Pakistan army in the country it owns, has thrown a spanner in the wheels.

The choices, the Pakistan military and the ISI have, are limited to two. They could resist the US and become rogue like North Korea and Iran or accept the American demands. In May 1998, when India declared successful testing of their nuclear weapons, Pakistan waited 2 weeks until they tested theirs. For those 2 weeks, Pakistan government tried their best to secure some aid for not conducting the tests. Mian Nawaz Sharif, who proudly claims to have presided over the nuclear test explosions of Pakistan, had sent Mr. Mushahid Hussain to US, to negotiate a deal for not exploding the bomb. For reasons best known to Americans, they let Pakistan go nuclear, publicly.

If history is any indicator, Pakistan would accept the demands made by US in the war against al-Qaida and Taliban but it is hard to believe that the powers in Islamabad would relinquish any authority. This issue of authority and rule over the country is so sacred and dear to the Pakistan Armed Forces that they did not mind losing more than half of the population and the east wing of the country in 1971.

For America, looking pretty with their demands for civilian rule and the rule of law in Pakistan, it is a question of the length of their interest in that country. Rule of law and democracy cannot be super-imposed on a people who do not have access to any signs of modernity in hundreds of miles of Balochistan, NWFP, Sindh, southern Punjab and FATA. Not too long ago, a federal minister and senator, Mr. Zehri, was explaining the burying alive of 2 teenage girls and their mothers on the senate floor. Defending the brutality, he said, “These are centuries old traditions and I will continue to defend them.� To undertake a task of building institutions could be a lengthy process.

The need for a change is felt for long but the military and the elite, with the help of US, has acquired a choke-hold on the people. The rulers will play with all ideas thrown at them from the international community, for a price.

Musharraf received 10 billion dollars for the war against insurgents, but to assume that the army would give up its position of being the supreme power in Pakistan, could be a mistake.