Can Status-quo Save Pakistan?

Pakistan, after surviving a serious threat of collapse finds itself weak and hurting. The finance minister has asked for a 4 billion dollar loan from IMF. Shortage of electric supply has aroused protest and destruction. Displaced persons return home to find Taliban FM radio still blaring. It is not only the war in the north; Baluch also demand the right to secede.

Government had to reduce the budget deficit, retract subsidy and raise price of energy under IMF conditions so they imposed tax, but they resorted to artful deceit by calling it a carbon tax as if they planned to cut carbon emission. Supreme-court ruled against the tax and the government re-imposed it as a Petroleum Development levy though this tax is intended to reduce the budget deficit without contributing to development of petroleum.

Generous offers of aid from the friends of Pakistan may not materialize on time so Finance Minister requested for another loan from IMF. A country already under a huge burden of debt receives harsher conditions for new loans. IMF had offered a list of conditions but the government chose to leave the agriculture sector exempt from tax. Instead, citizens already hurt from economic crisis will be squeezed at the pump as well.

Shortage of electric supply has drawn protests in Lahore and Karachi. Protesters burnt down a train in Punjab. Karachi witnessed another power failure after the first rain of the season. Some parts of the city are without electricity and water for last 4 days. Textile manufacturers say they are moving out to Bangladesh because of un-favorable conditions in the country.

War continues in the north though some areas have been declared safe for the return of displaced people. No insurgent leader has been reported killed or arrested and returning citizens still hear the FM broadcasts of Taliban propaganda. Military spokesman General Athar Abbas offered to bring Taliban to negotiate with the Americans in Afghanistan.

Baluchistan, the province that provides natural gas to the whole country, constitutes 43% of the total area of Pakistan and resides only 4% of the population. The province was annexed by sending military to Kalat in 1948. Demands of autonomy and secession have been countered by brutal military force and there has been no effort at comforting the grievance of the people. The actions of Pakistan government come close to genocide compared to the size of population.

The richest province is the most under-developed. The gas fields and airstrips were built to accommodate migrant workers and technicians but Baluchistan did not see any infra-structure development aimed to benefit its people. Gwadur port has been completed with the help of China. An Australian company is mining a single gold reserve in Baluchistan estimated at 65 billion dollars. A gas pipeline running between Iran and India through Baluchistan was announced a few years ago. A US plan for a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to India running through Afghanistan and Baluchistan has been reported in the media.

Baluch have continually expressed dismay against plundering of their resources. Increased business activity in this resource rich province in presence of warring armies in the region makes situation particularly volatile. Pushtuns have been devastated by three decades of war and a political change in their situation could be imminent. The establishment suggested dividing Punjab into an ethnic Seraiki and Punjabi province instead of addressing the demands of smaller provinces.

The mass protest against shortage of electric supply has not been supported by any political party. Politicians, the parliament and senate appear numb to the pressing issues faced by the people and the country. The movement for restoration of judiciary had invigorated the people but that activism has dissipated. General Musharraf’s ministers blamed CIA for instigating that movement.

Should we request the CIA for leadership and organization again in resolving the electric supply problems and providing tax relief to people? Imposing tax on agriculture could lead the country towards financial strength and self-dependence. Allowing people to share in the resources of their land could harmonize relations between peoples and government. Pains of political change in the region could be less agonizing if clarity of mind, openness of heart and urgency of action is deployed.