Pakistan Alert: Revolution in the Making?

This is for the first time in the history of Pakistan that an army coup happened independently of the United States: the previous three similar examples had American blessings. Hence, any illogical effort at American engagement to the present military take over in Pakistan may trigger events resulting in the retreat of US interests in the region.

The US so far as the latest reports suggest is set to impose sanctions against Pakistan. A spokesman of the US State Department told the regular briefing Friday (Oct. 15), that the US had now determined that there was a military coup in Pakistan and under section 508 of the Foreign Operations Appropriations Act, sanctions had been imposed.

The American response to the situation in Pakistan seems to be based on premises relevant only in the American society, but they have little germaneness to the Pakistani society. When US President says that he desires early return of the democratically elected government, it shivers poor people who believe that the return of the 'goons' would rip off the society.

In fact, the so-called democratically elected governments in the recent past were product of a series of palatial conspiracies, and not the ones of a process of democracy. Would we say that Hitler or Mussolini, who were also elected to their offices, could be supported on the basis that since they were democratically elected therefore, they were democrats by any means?

Some one, other than a person like Monica Lewinsky, must warn Bill Clinton that resorting to any misadventure against Pakistan in the name of protecting civil society or restoring democracy, will be disastrous for the very civil society and democracy. If Mr. Nawaz Sharif happens to be his buddy, Clinton must not overlook ground realities, which clearly indicate that the Sharifs dynasty is over.

There are certain factors that must be considered before taking the Pakistan Army on:

\\* Good governance is merely a dream and will remain a dream in the present Constitutional Order (the mutilated 1973 Constitution);

\\* Pakistan is a nuclear power, therefore, it cannot be bullied;

\\* Fundamentalism is still not a popular doctrine among the people of Pakistan;

\\* People of Pakistan believe that America and its interests in the region are the root cause of the problems in the region;

\\* Sanction-clamped Pakistan will breed a peculiar kind of poverty-stricken people who would be willing to die an honorable death (martyrdom) while fighting against America;

\\* It is also seriously considered that if Pakistan form a strategic alliance with Iran and China, it can change the destiny of the region;

\\* Pakistan with China and Iran can eliminate the American influence and interest in the region, which would pave the way for a new order in Asia;

\\* General Parvaiz Musharraf has potential of taking any decision as he has already showed it;

\\* Moreover, the general would soon fit into the popular image of a Rambo-like hero who can take the control of 'Airforce One' from hijackers. This would elevate him to the highest level heroism;

\\* A country with acknowledged potentials is poor. But any adventurism against her would make the people ready to give sacrifices, thus, sanctions would fail to force military leadership to change its stand vis-a-vis 'civil society'.

\\* The only factor that would remain a threat to Pakistan is India. However, India would not be able to take on a nuclear Pakistan.

Keeping in view these few but important factors, would it not be a better advice for the State Department and the White House to engage present Pakistan in a constructive diplomacy. It would be counter-productive if the US bullies military leadership that happens to have become a rallying point for the big and small as well as poor and rich segments of the 'civil society' of Pakistan.

Pakistan is neither a China where America wants to find a Tiananmen Square incident nor a Soviet Union where jeans-clad youth would overpower Tanks on Moscow roads. The civil movement was stronger in these two countries in spite of the fact that they were under authoritarian rules.

But here in Pakistan, 'civil society' was not only weakened during the martial law of General Zia-ul-Haq (a US protege), but was now being stifled by the so-called democratically elected government. Stories of storming the Supreme Court, press-bashing adventurism power-seeking legislation, writing off of loans worth billions of rupees, etc.

People in Pakistan like a democratic system, want to promote and strengthen civil society, but that was not happening during the so-called democratically elected government of the buddy of Clinton. High courts and district bar associations in Pakistan have already supported the military take over.

This shift of the pillar of civil society in favour of military rule cannot be comprehended by the advocates of civil society living in the west unless they live the political saga of countries like Pakistan. The façade of a system does not matter to them. People want whether they can live a prosperous and honourable life or not.

Do not make people hate democracy by supporting a facade of democracy that was built in the persons of corrupt rulers. It is high time that Pakistan restructured its body politick; Pakistan drafted its new Constitution. This is the time where the advocates of Good Governance should come forward and help Pakistan in laying foundations for a civil society.

But if the short-sighted policies of level-headed thinkers of US State Department prevail, then be ready for a big game in the region and subsequently in whole Eurasia. Perhaps, this will be the beginning of the World War III.