Crisis and Opportunity

Following the terrible events of September 11, I find myself struggling with a complex set of emotions. First of all, this is a colossal tragedy by any standard. Murdering thousands of innocent people is inhuman and beneath contempt. Whoever did this needs to suffer dire consequences. There were

many heartbreaking incidents reported in the media over the last couple of days. One that affected me greatly was that of a person calling his wife on his cell phone to say goodbye to her and his two sons --- ages 1 and 3 --- as he was waiting to die trapped in the WTC. A lot of the people who died there were like us --- men and women in their 20's, 30's or 40's, with young families and dreams of a bright future. Their murder must not go unpunished.

All this said, I think that this crisis is ultimately a consequence of myopic policies in the US and in the Muslim world. As we mourn for the thousands of innocent dead, we must not forget who created Osama bin Laden and the various so-called Jihadi groups that form today's terror networks. It was the US that encouraged, trained and bankrolled these people to fight against the Soviets,

and it was the Pakistani government that greedily accepted its role as conduit

and training ground in return for a pittance of US aid. Then the Soviets left

Afghanistan and the US rolled up its operation, leaving the people of that

region holding the bag. Pakistan has paid the price of these policies in

violence and anarchy over the last 16 years. Afghanistan, of course, has been

destroyed completely. The same sort of approach was used by the US in Iraq,

where, having protected the oil, they left the source of the problem --- Saddam

--- intact, creating a long-term hazard. Contrast this with the way they

responded after WWII, where the US pumped vast resources into Germany and Japan

to build up the infrastructure and create civilized societies that could become

useful parts of the international community. A similar approach is being taken in Yugoslavia. This time, if the US goes in to destroy the Taliban and bin Laden, I have no problem with that as long as they finish the job and then help in re-establishing a functioning society in place of what has been destroyed. But if they just go in to destroy a few camps and kill a few people, they will just create more bin Ladens for the future, and destabilize the region even more.

At this point, I would also like to point out the further complications created

by criminally inept Pakistani policy-makers. In their zeal to fight India, they

fed the Frankenstein monster of militancy for years. Now the monster threatens

Pakistan too. It is quite sad to watch as the current government struggles to

control the forces it helped unleash in a previous incarnation.

Whether it is the US or Pakistan, what I see is a remarkable degree of

short-sightedness on the part of "leaders" who overestimate their own capabilities and underestimate the magnitude of the forces unleashed by their

unthinking folly.

Finally, I know that this will not go well with some, but here's my opinion on

what should happen. Regardless of whether bin Laden was directly behind the

terrorist attacks, forces of a broad international alliance, led by the US,

should build up bases of operation in Pakistan, Uzbekistan and elsewhere in

the region, systematically --- and over a considerable period --- wipe out the

terrorists and their trainers in Pakistan, install UN peacekeepers in Afghanistan, and provide long-term financial support for the whole region to steer towards a more secure future. At the same time, the US should force India and Pakistan to abandon their animosities and move towards a regional common market. But all this will require the committment of time, effort, and even lives, and I am not sure that the US, used to fighting antiseptic wars with minimal casualties, has the will to make this committment. I am also not sure whether Russia or China will allow such display of American power in their neighborhood, or if the Pakistani government will have the courage to stand up to its militant scourge. I do know that it would require long-term strategic thinking that looks well beyond the 2, 4 and 6 year election cycles that govern the ebb and flow of American politics. Unfortunately, at this time of crisis and opportunity, the greatest power on Earth is led by a neophyte who can barely put three words together and is surrounded by Cold Warriors with no understanding of the new realities. As Time magazine recently asked on its cover, "Where have you gone, Colin Powell?" Or, as appeared to be the sentiment on Manhattan streets this afternoon, "Will you come back, Bill Clinton?"