Message in the Bubble Burst

".....out of about 8,000 students who completed their graduation from different IT institutions every year about 20 per cent met the required standard." - Dr. Atta Ur Rehman (Chairman HEC) in his address at a University in Islamabad on July 9, 2003.

I hope an exercise was conducted to define what ’required standard’ means and also that the number ’20%’ is more than just gut feeling.

Dr. Atta Ur Rehman should not be complaining about the poor quality of IT graduates – instead, these figures are his scorecard. Students and even more so their parents (who foot the tuition bills in this country) are the aggrieved party in this transaction – in more than one ways.

Our IT policy was put together in 1999 – the year when the longest running US economic boom was peaking. A lot has happened since then. Firstly, US tech stocks collapsed in the year 2000, causing the bubble to burst and sending the economy into a downturn. US officially declared the start of economic recession in March 2001. "The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee has determined that a peak in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in March 2001," the panel said in its announcement. "A peak marks the end of an expansion and the beginning of a recession." Shortly afterwards, in September the same year, two steel birds hit the twin towers of world trade center. While all of this was happening on other side of the Atlantic, In Pakistan, before and after 2000-01 picture of our IT policy looked similar – as if nothing had happened.

The bubble burst had a message – paradigm which was driving the pre 2000 Information Technology hype was flawed. NASDAQ was just a barometer of investor’s confidence in that paradigm. The stocks collapsed when the paradigm failed to deliver. IT is not out. Infact, it will make a come back. But it’s post 2000 look and feel will be fundamentally different from what we are used to. And it is precisely this message that we have failed to listen to. Our IT policy and education is preparing for pre 2000 world – like driving by looking in the rear view mirror. We are gearing up for the wrong times.

Bad things happen to good and inflexible people. As Shumaila Hemani in her article “IT graduates virtually Jobless” in daily times of 2/7/2002 writes:
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story _2-7-2002_pg5_6

“More than 300 software engineers out of 1,500 at 150 software houses were sent home after September 11,” said Hamza Mateen, president, Pakistan All Software House Association (PASHA). “Since February an estimated $17 million to $18 million in orders have been cancelled in software exports.

” On the home front the numbers are rising. “An estimated 2,800 people in IT and software related businesses lost their jobs from July to August last year,” said Khurram P. Rafiq, member of the chief executive committee, PASHA. “Unemployment numbers reached 5,400 by October 31.” He said an estimated 125 software houses have virtually no work to do these days and are heading for closure if the bleak situation shows no signs of improving.”