Vajpayee’s Srinagar offer of Talks to Pakistan

Instead of strife and warfare in South and Central Asia, need for Economic and multi-facet cooperation like Asean & EU- begin with a gas pipe line for a lasting solution.

Apart from the usual -let us discuss all subjects including Kashmir- there is a refreshing caveat in Pakistan’s welcome to an Indian offer of bilateral talks. Foreign Minister Khurseed Mehmood Kusuri in a statement called on India to participate in a major pipeline project that will transport natural gas from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan, and then on to India.

"Since tension in South Asia has diminished in the last several weeks, we desire India to take part in the Turkmenistan gas pipeline," said Kusuri.

He added that Pakistan was ready to give international guarantees for the protection of the 1,600 kilometer pipeline that will cost around US$3 billion. India has not agreed earlier to energy pipelines either from Turkmenistan or Iran because of lack of security. For participation by Indians and others, the guarantees for security have to be given for the region as a whole.

The offer of talks and hand of friendship to Islamabad was made in a speech on 18 April in Srinagar by Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the first Indian Prime Minister to visit the Kashmir valley since more than a decade. But Pakistan must respond positively and see that cross-border terrorism and infiltration stops for a meaningful dialogue to resume, he added. "We are willing to discuss all issues including Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). But the route of cross-border terrorism cannot go on. There has been no benefit from it and there cannot be any benefit in future. I hope there (would) be an appropriate response from across the border." The Indian Prime Minister underlined that there was a change in the situation in J& K and the international situation had also changed. "What happened in Iraq is a challenge to us but I do not want to go beyond that" --"Kashmir is at a turning point after successful assembly election in which people defied threats and guns."

At a press conference next day before returning to Delhi, Vajpayee recounted his peace initiatives, like his bus journey to Lahore and the invitation to President Musharraf for the Agra Summit. He added that there was a need for a new beginning, but emphasized that no proper dialogue with Pakistan could take place till cross- border terrorism was stopped. Pakistan Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali welcomed Vajpayee’s offer on 18 April itself. "I welcome this offer and appreciate it but the basic principles on issues will remain the same," Jamali told reporters in Islamabad while reacting to Vajpayee’s speech. Pakistan President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, a red rag for most Indians has also chimed in his approval.

Foreign Minister Mian Kasuri had earlier responded immediately on 19 April to the offer of talks in a telephone conversation from Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, where he was on an official visit. He had said that Vajpayee’s statement was significant because it showed his remarks were "well thought out" and not just "off-the-cuff." "When you say where do we go from here, our position is very clear. We are prepared for a composite dialogue with India on all outstanding disputes including the Kashmir dispute," "If India is serious about a dialogue, India will find that Pakistan is willing to go more than half the way to meet India," Kasuri said.

Economic solution to Political problems:

It may be recalled that the establishment of European community took roots, after the second World War, in 1950s when a European Coal and Steel Authority was created to monitor armament manufacture in Europe, specially in France and Germany (and avoid another war.) Ironically, distrust was the basis of a now expanding and flourishing Europe Union. It had strong support from US Secretary of State Dean Acheson. USA and its companies are greatly interested in transporting gas and petroleum from Central Asia to India which is short of hydrocarbons as industrial raw material and for power generation.

Unfortunately, oblivious to everything else, with its policy of strategic depth in Afghanistan having been unraveled, Pakistan in spite of joining the war against terrorism has remained paranoid about Kashmir. It has not kept its promise of 12 January, 2002 to stop cross border terrorism. Kashmir is in the blood of Pakistanis said President Gen Musharraf. For India, it is the very backbone of its secular fabric and unity and hence the stability of the region.

Opposite perceptions of Kashmir coin from the two sides have made the Kashmir problem like a koan (Zen riddle). Perhaps, it is time for a fresh, unorthodox and transcendental look at a canvas extending beyond India and Pakistan. Certainly Afghanistan and beyond. With the sole hyper power now calling the shots we might also look at solutions, in line with its economic and strategic interests. The solution must subsume political and other differences not only in South Asia but in Central Asia too. But we must first cut through the last 150 years of British and Russian colonial fog, which separated South and Central Asia. The two regions share five millenniums of history, culture and civilization. Therefore, for peace and stability in the region, time has come to seriously study and promote the concept of a Free Trade Zone and later even an Economic Community for the countries of the regions. And change the current Agenda from ethnic, linguistic and border strife to close economic cooperation and integration like in Europe Union (EU) or nearer home in ASEAN.

Last year’s Free Trade Area agreement between China and ASEAN should make the leadership of South and Central Asia sit up and take note. In April this year in Athens, the EU summit admitted 10 new members to the existing 15 members Union, extending its frontiers to Russia and through Cyprus to Eastern Mediterranean. But coming back to Asia, it may be recalled that in November last year, in the Cambodian capital of Phnom Penh, an economic cooperation agreement was signed between China and ASEAN to create the world’s biggest free-trade area which would come into force on July 1, 2003.

It covers 1.7 billion consumers with their GDP totaling $3.56 trillion and two-way annual trade of $1.2 trillion. The agreement would eliminate tariffs and non-tariff barriers to goods and services and gives special differential treatment and flexibility to newer and poorer ASEAN member states, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam. China also decided to write off Cambodian debt of about $200 million.

China and the original 6 ASEAN states - Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand would be in free-trade zone by 2010, while Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam would join by 2015. It also soothes Southeast Asia’s worries because of China’s entry into the World Trade Organization late last year. An ASEAN study estimates that the new agreement would raise ASEAN’s exports to China by 48 percent and China’s exports to ASEAN by 55 percent.

China and ASAEN also signed a nonbinding declaration to reduce political and military tension in the South China Sea. China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Brunei have claims to all or part of the strategic and resource-rich sea lanes and islands, like the Spratlys. Confidence building measures include prior warnings of military exercises to reduce chances of conflicts.

A day after the agreement, Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi also signed an agreement to form a free trade area with ASEAN, but the details are extremely vague. It is more of a pact for a framework. Mr. Koizumi agreed that its realization was at least a decade away. Japanese economy is struggling to emerge from its 10 years long recession while China has shown near 10% annual growth for the same period. Still, why cannot South and Central Asians learn from East and South East Asians?

Also attending ASEAN on the sidelines for the first time, India declared that it was also eager to negotiate a free trade zone with ASEAN. But can Indian leadership overcome its geography and history? Its destiny lies in South Asian subcontinent known as Hindustan in history with its many millennia old natural linkages with Turkistan, Iran and Turkey via Afghanistan. It was another of India?s declarations with out much thought behind it, an escape from failure to resolve current problems up north.

After 9/11, events in Afghanistan and elsewhere and the invasion of Iraq, coming together of South and Central Asia is essential. Recent events have given a totally different complexion to the problems in Kashmir, Afghanistan, Ferghana etc in this vast region with five millenniums of shared history and exchanges.

The region comprising India, Pakistan and others in SAARC and Central Asian Republics (CARs) and others in ECO now presents a depressing spectacle to the world. Beset with problems of economic under development, the region remains mired in ethnic, religious, territorial and other disputes and problems.

Because of US foisting a former Unocal consultant Hamid Karzai as the president of Afghanistan, who is not acceptable to the majority of Pushtoons, the situation there remains unstable. Talebans and Al Qaida leaders and cadres had gone into hiding in southern Afghanistan and Pakistan, especially in north mountainous regions and sprawling violence prone city of Karachi. Such elements and ethnic minorities in neighboring states like Tajikistan, in and around Ferghana valley remain a source of constant concern and spill over of violence. With the US attention focused on Iraq and likely to remain so for some time, Afghanistan’s warlords, Talebans and other groups are becoming active again. What is needed is a change of agenda from wars and strife to commercial and other exchanges.

Throughout history Afghanistan has been a fulcrum of trade routes and Afghans are known to be intrepid traders. The Europe Union In the background of distrust and suspicions following wars between India and Pakistan since independence in 1947, recently Kargil incursions and support to terrorism in India by Pakistan, it may be pointed out that during the first half of 20th century alone millions of Germans, French, British and others were killed by each other in wars and other battles But since the creation of an European Economic Community, disputes have been subsumed into economic rivalry and competition and peace has reigned in west and central Europe. In the very near future almost all former east European communist states would also be integrated into the Europe Union.

Kashmir and Alsace Lorraine dispute between France and Germany; After the formation of European community, even the historic Alsace Lorraine dispute between France and Germany, no less complex than Jammu and Kashmir, with change of hands and an autonomy movement got subsumed into economic collaboration and rivalry. Similarly before the creation of ASEAN in South East Asia in late 1960s there used to be constant quarrels between Indonesia and Malaysia and bilateral and multilateral disputes among others.

The idea of a European community, inspired by Monnet and sketched by French Foreign Minister Robert Schumann, took root when a European Coal and Steel Authority was created to monitor armament manufacture in Europe (and avoid another war). Ironically, distrust was the basis of now an expanding and flourishing EU. It had strong support from US Secretary of State Dean Acheson. In the days preceding the establishment of the Authority in 1950, Europe was at sixes and sevens. There was tension and fear. Animosity between France and Germany had led to two World Wars. East Europe was being sucked into communism.

Now countries of South and Central Asia are in the danger of being sucked into terrorism, which only brings death, destruction and misery for its people. South and central Asian leaders must also seriously consider the highly competitive international economic environment with expanding EU, NAFTA, ASEAN and other Economic Communities. It was a few years ago, that wary of being left behind in the Global bazaar by powerful western trading and negotiating blocks, leaders of China, Japan, S Korea and 10 ASEAN states, had initiated steps for closer economic integration and even discussed proposals for a Security Forum. China and ASEAN are already on way to fulfill that objective. Only the squabbling South and Central Asia and ever-divided Arab world remain unprepared against the economic challenges of this century. Even marginalised Africa has at least taken steps towards an economic union along the EU model during a meeting in South Africa last year.