Iranian Nuclear Program nettles the US

War on terrorism is proceeding too fast to control by the United States. Countries one after the other are being victimized in the guise of terrorism as the superpower advances its interests. The US attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities on the grounds of stemming nuclear proliferation will not be refuted by many. Setting the deadline in the latest United Nations Security Council's resolution to coerce Tehran to fully comply with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) demands, could be a big stride towards that endeavor.

IAEA's assertions that its latest tests discovered traces of highly-enriched uranium in environmental samples taken at Iran’s incomplete uranium enrichment plant at Natanz reinforces US, European and other countries’ apprehensions about another Islamic country gaining nuclear power status. While Iranian officials' claim that the traces come from imported equipment that had been previously contaminated, the IAEA resolution calls on Iran to suspend all uranium enrichment activities, provide a full declaration of all imported material and components for its uranium enrichment program and to give IAEA inspectors unrestricted access to all its facilities. Iran’s hesitance to return the used uranium has fretted Russians about Tehran’s true intentions.

Feelings of Iranians are getting nervy about the US intentions regarding their nuclear programme – as both parties reject each others’ claim over real rationale behind the project. Since the 35-member governing board of the IAEA issued a provocative ultimatum to Iran setting a deadline of October 31 to comply with all demands related to its nuclear programme, rightists and powerful ayatollahs are asking their government to quit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and expel ambassadors of the three nations that initiated the resolution, and “revise” Tehran’s relations with all the nations that supported the controversial resolution. Iranians want their government to toe the North Korean line which is aggressive toward the West regarding its defence and has been successfully warding off any military move from the US.

There are many reasons forcing the US administration to put pressure on Tehran to halt its nuclear plant construction. The fundamental reason is that Israel – which is already within the range of Iran’s Shahab 3 missile – feels most threatened from this newly-emerging military state. Israel is already restraining itself by not threatening Iran openly but advancing its policies against Tehran through the UN using the US leverage on other permanent and non-permanent member countries. Surrounded by harmless Arab states, Israel is more fearful of Tehran’s intentions now than ever before.

Iran's becoming a nuclear power sends a chill down the US administration spine. Its closest ally, Israel, coming within the range of a hostile Islamic state will never be acceptable to it. Before resorting to the final option of bringing into action its powerful military, the US will exploit all the options at its hand. And if US deems that all its endeavours to stop Tehran from acquiring a nuclear capability are in vain, final option will be inevitable. It could be at the cost of even weakening ties with European Union (EU). It is evident from history that US policies always have tilted in favour of the Israeli interests rather than the EU. However hard the EU may pressurise Israel, it will not be effective because it never succumbed to Union’s pressure in the past. But, in fact, on many occasions what transpired was quite the opposite. It was the Union which had to bow to US-Israeli pressure in such instances. Terming Hamas’ political wing a terrorists outfit is the latest case in point.

A second Islamic country, Iran, after Pakistan, going nuclear is a hard pill to swallow for the West. The US and its allies have swallowed the pill of Pakistan becoming a nuclear state, but digesting it has been hard. From time to time, antagonistic reports emanate from the western media, mostly US, about Pakistan’s nuclear programme. The unfounded fear of Pakistan’s nuclear equipment (facilities) falling in the hands of terrorists is constantly hounding it. In the guise of such speculations, it’s promoting its interests by bullying Pakistan. The West is apprehensive lest Iran also acquire nuclear capability without ever accepting it openly, just as Pakistan never acknowledged possessing nuclear device until it detonated it in July 1998.

The failure of United Nations to stop Afghan and Iraq wars has heavily disappointed the Islamic world. These two historic events have inculcated a sense of weakness among the Muslim countries that feel their survival under threat. These two incidents have changed the political calculus in the whole world. This feeling is strongest in Tehran which is at the centre of a crisis against the same state which attacked one and occupied the second Islamic state.

The sense of insecurity will strengthen Iranian tenacity to make a nuclear bomb. This may alienate Tehran further from the west but it will succeed in securing its survival by making the bomb. North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons is deterring the US head-on. And this notion is compelling Iranians to take a similar stance.

If the US failed despite exhausting all the diplomatic options to halt Iranian programme, would the Americans resort to exhibit its military supremacy against a much weaker country? Or will it encourage a mutiny in Iran? Or will the US attack Iranian nuclear installations and annihilate them? Only time will answer all these questions. But what is most likely can be debated.

The first option can be ruled out easily because the US is already involved on too many fronts and will not risk to open a new one. US forces, as Pentagon and some congressmen state, are already thinned out. So this is out of the question.

The second option is also on hand to the US. But US is unlikely to exercise this option for she is aware of the consequences of removing a democratic government in Tehran. Removal will fortify Iranian beliefs that US wants to undermine and destabilise Iran which will alienate pro-Washington reformers. Needless to say, anti-American feelings are already deeply rooted in Iranian society and could rise to a boiling point. US can’t ignore it and land its forces in the heart of Iranian cities to let them die at the hands of Iranians.

The third option seems quite likely. US can use it in order to stop Iran’s nuclear programme. It’s a question of a few minutes’ heavy bombardment and Iran’s nuclear infrastructure will be flattened. All those who witnessed the destruction of Iraq’s nuclear reactor at Osirik in 1981 by Israeli F-16s can visualize it again but with different contestants this time. The possibility of Israel going it alone in the same 1981 fashion to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities can’t be ruled out either because US media are encouraging the Bush administration to back Israel if it decided to act against Iranian plants in the same 1981 fashion. US can execute the operation with more precision consonant with Israeli air force. It’s as Senator Joseph Biden, the senior Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, put it that differences are limited to tactics and timing only. All the pointers indicate that game has now entered its final phase.