Another Attempt on Musharraf

The former macho commando has survived yet another attempt on his life.

A day after agreeing to a key MMA demand to relinquish either the Presidency or the Command of the Army Pervez Musharraf was returning to his home in Rawalpindi from Islamabad when two explosives laden vans rammed into his motorcade from the front and the back.

Even though the roads were cleared the Suzuki vans were waiting in two petrol stations. At least 15 people have died in the failed attempt, CNN reports. (14 according to BBC). More than forty reportedly injured.

This attack comes barely eleven days after a previous attack when his motorcade had just passed by a bridge about 500 meters from today’s attempt. Reports credited high-tech jamming devices in Musharraf’s motorcade that were said to have delayed last week’s blast.

In the aftermath of that attempt he banned several militant, religious and separatist groups.

Major Gen Sultan a Musharraf aide admitted “it was quite a narrow escape.” The eyewitnesses gave conflicting news reports: "The president’s motorcade had just passed and about half a minute later the explosion went off," one eyewitness told Pakistan’s Geo television. Others mentioned the vans, one of them a white Suzuki were waiting in the petrol pump area, before revving and ramming into the presidential motorcade.

Pervaiz Musharraf, 60 years old came to power in a bloodless coup in 1999.

From international pariah to being accepting as a frontline state leader in the US led war against terrorism his hold on power has been firm and tenuous at the same time.

Some say he is a man of spine, others say he is fickle and bends to the winds to survive.

In the face of adversity and survival he has changed long held policies of previous regimes. Friends attribute that to his sharp grasp and detractors to his survival at any costs instincts.

Whatever the truth, he has moved Pakistan away from the Talebans, initiated minimal financial restraints, some accountability, improved trade and balance of payments, increased liberalization of print and broadcast media (Geo, Ary, Indus TV.)

While he continues to treat the orthodox mullahs and fundamentalist parties with kids gloves and has not repealed the much criticized Hudood Ordinance and Blashemy Laws, has been ineffective in controlling ethnic violence, specially those against minorities. His handling of law and order in general and honor killing, rapes and feud murders all over the country has been disparagingly lacking. Nor has he been able to curb the increasingly legalized robbery of the country’s assets by the Army and its cohorts.

If Musharraf is assassinated or removed from power he would leave behind a country only marginally better in some ways and much worse in other ways than what he inherited from Nawaz Sharif.

This latest attacks has cast shadows over the forthcoming January 04 SAARC meeting in Islamabad. This was to be attended by Atal Bihari Vajpayee, India's Prime Minister. Following recent peace overtures there were speculations of fruitful talks between the two leaders and a resulting further improvement of ties and lessening of tensions between the two South Asian neighbours.

Musharaf has no shortage of enemies inside and outside of Pakistan.

In a tape released to Al Jazeera in September, 2003 Ayman Al Zawahiri, Osama’s deputy has urged Pakistanis to overthrow Musharraf for supporting the United States.

Add to him the often banned Pakistani extremists who want no curbs on their terror forays into India. And others who see normalization of relations with India as a threat to them. And an alleged power struggle within the Army between the old guards and Musharaf loyalists on one side and the young Turks including assorted groups with diverse grievances against Musharraf and his allies in the junta.

Among the known attacks on Musharraf, today’s attack coupled with the Dec 14 attack barely 500 meters away on the same road, and the one in Karachi last year where the bomb laden car failed to explode raise serious doubts on the security around the President. And casts much more serious aspersions on the performances of the touted security agencies.

How will the cat with nine lives extricate himself from this latest attempt?

Expect some of these:

--he will again blame the terrorists including Al-qaeda supporters in Pakistan
--he will ban and tighten the noose around them further
--he will initiate a large scale reorganization within the Army and in the intelligence agencies to put his own men in there. (Remember, he promised to turn in his uniform by December 31, 2004 but will remain the president till 2007.)
--behind the scenes he will do his best not to cancel the SAARC meeting (this may not work in Pakistan’s favour: time shall tell)
--he will try to remove the obfuscation behind who will assume the Presidency should he be assassinated or incapacitated: the Deputy Chief of the Army Gen. Aziz or Speaker of the National Assembly Mianmohammed Soomro.