The NCM-AI Poll and Us

The New California Media (NCM) and Amnesty International (AI) have recently announced the findings of their joint poll to test the current political temperatures within Americans of Arab, Iranian and Pakistani descent. And in a first of sorts this poll which surveyed 600 people nationwide (in all but 7 or 8 states), was conducted not only in English but in Arabic, Farsi and Urdu languages, so that the immigrant community would not be left out in favor of the American-born who usually feel more comfortable in English. This poll was conducted by Bendixen & Associates between August 2nd and August 18th, 2004.

If the response gathered is indicative of what voting trends will be like in November, neither major Presidential Candidate can afford to ignore these findings. These three communities combined are approximately 1.8 million in number here in the US and can become the “swing vote” in key states where they are concentrated and where the Bush-Kerry race will be close.

Most of the findings of this poll are not surprising but there are exceptions (to some of us who are no strangers to these communities). But they are certainly indicative of the heightened level of awareness that has evolved within these three groups since 9/11/2001. The Democratic and the Republican Party conventions saw some of the representatives from these communities as delegates but they did not go out of their way to focus on them. But then again, they cannot really afford to ignore them.

Arab-Americans in general (73%) oppose President Bush on Iraq. That number amongst Muslim Americans is even higher (78%). And 35% of Arab-Americans believe that the threat of terrorist attacks has increased since the beginning of the war against Iraq. Another 34% believe that the threat has remained the same as it was before. Only 14% said that it had decreased since the war began.

Iranian-Americans or 72% of them at least have a negative view of how the Bush administration is handling Iraq. 68% of the Pakistanis surveyed agreed with the majority of Arab and Iranian-Americans.

On possible voting patterns in November, it was found that 49% of Arab-Americans favor John Kerry, 16% will vote for George W. Bush and 14% favor Ralph Nader. (One can think of few other voting communities where Bush and Nader are running almost neck to neck). Muslim Americans as a whole indicate a favor for Kerry at 49%, Nader at 10% and have Bush trailing at 9%. But we cannot ignore the 32% that are still undecided.

When jointly asked which issue was most important to them today, 47% of the Arab, Iranian and Pakistani-Americans said that it was Education, 14% said that it was the war in Iraq, 13% said it was jobs and the economy, 9% were concerned most about health care, 8% about discrimination, 5% about terrorism and 3% about housing. This certainly did come as a surprise.

What did not surprise us was that Pakistani-Americans reported “significantly higher” levels of discrimination in America since September 11, 2001 than both Arab and Iranian-Americans. Views on the Patriot Act were somewhat mixed amongst the three groups due to lack of awareness of its details.

But what does all this information mean to us today?

As one who has had the opportunity to report on quite a number of events since the horror of 9/11 darkened our horizons and changed the world as we know it, all I can add is the following: The pulse of the Muslim-American community is still difficult to read in spite of these polls.

John Kerry’s campaign need not get too complacent yet. And Ralph Nader being a factor is an issue overplayed this time. The three communities and the Muslim-Americans as a whole realize how important their vote is today. And George Bush and his campaign stand to lose as much this time as they had won in the 2004 polls from the Muslim-American vote. Can they (the Republicans) really afford to lose 2 or 3 more states in 2004?

The number one concern of these communities currently is their real or perceived loss of civil rights since 9/11. Education is a top concern for everyone and is too “vanilla” an answer. But the 14% Iraq war concerns + 13% jobs and the economy + 8% concern about discrimination + 5% on terrorism equals a very conservative 40% concern about civil rights in these communities today. These numbers can easily be connected.

Global issues (Palestine etc.) are currently almost at par with local issues here, a reflection of the new world that has taken shape post 9/11. And although these polls reflect an array of sentiments widely held (of which only a slice was referred to in this article), these communities are now becoming politically mature enough (due to circumstances beyond their control) to play their cards close to their chests till that very morning of Election Day. And the candidate or party that professes to protect the civil rights of all Americans especially Muslims, Middle Easterners and South Asians will find much benefit in taking note of this reality.