The Iraqi Elections: an Important Watershed

"The countdown has begun for a great, historic day in the life of our people. On this day, the people will master their own destiny and future when they will select their representatives to the constitutional assembly that will draft the permanent constitution and choose an elected government expressing their will and working to achieve their hopes and aspirations. We believe the high turnout will be the most telling response to the terrorists and killers who seek to confiscate the Iraqi people’s will."
Editorial in Iraqi newspaper Al-Bayan

The high turnout at the Iraqi hustings on January 30 exceeded even the most optimistic of predictions by nearly 15 per cent. The Iraqi government claimed a 70 per cent turnout across roughly 5,300 polling sites across the country. The roughly 50 people who died on election day are being hailed as martyrs, some Shias amongst them being buried at Najaf as a mark of respect and honour.

The successful conduct of the elections was also a big setback to the assorted collection of foreign mercenaries, Batthists and former Sunni soldiers who were prevented by the Iraqi National Guards from disrupting the balloting. Says James Hider, The Times correspondent in Baghdad for over one year: "The security was well planned. They took all cars off the streets except those with permits on official duty.

So the powerful car bombs went out of the equation. That left the insurgents with mortar attacks and individual suicide bombers. The mortar attacks didn’t bother the voting populace. In fact, my poignant moment of the elections was this Shia woman with a child in her arms who stood in a line even as mortars went off nearby. She was determined to vote. In some places when a suicide bomber disrupted the proceedings the people fell back in line even as security forces mopped up the debris of flesh and metal. Polling day displayed very high civic passions."

And why not? It was 50 years since the last semblance of any worthwhile elections. Even the Arabic media recognized the historicity of the event.

Asharq Al-Awsat,an Arab newspaper, based in London, called the elections "An unprecedented and historic event... An Iraqi scene unlike any other in the region... The Iraqi elections will serve as a lesson for neighboring countries to assume power through voting and not overthrowing."

Al-Dustur, a newspaper in Jordan had a political cartoon by Jalal al-Rifai showing an Iraqi man facing a ballot box, but with a line of bombs preventing him from approaching the box. A United Arab Emirates newspaper, Al-Ittihad, screamed across a headline "The New Iraq will be Born Today".

Another Arab paper Al-Hayat, based in London, said in an editorial that the ramifications of the elections went beyond Iraq. Said the
paper: "Under Saddam, elections meant nothing for Iraqis... Ballot boxes were used to renew allegiance to the leader... The word ’no’
didn’t exist in the Iraqi vocabulary. Anyone who dared say it would be wiped out along with their cousins and the entire family tree......
It is not an exaggeration to say that today is a decisive day for Iraq and the Iraqis. Despite the Sunni boycott and the continued violence, today will leave its mark on Iraqi history."

The Qatar based Al-Jazeera TV network focussed its coverage on the Iraqi expatriates who voted from around the world. It also aired images from suicide bombings on election day and spoke about the low Sunni voter turnout.

The Al-Arabiya TV network, based in Dubai, chose a much more balanced approach. It exorted voters to go and vote, giving details of the polling stations and talked to exultant Iraqis who had voted and were optimistic about the political process. One story was about an Iraqi woman who gave birth to a girl on the day following the election. The mother named the child Intikhabat -- "elections" in Arabic.

The voters had a choice from amongst 111 parties for members of provincial parliaments as well as a 275-member national assembly, which will begin the work of writing the country’s constitution. That is to be followed by a referendum on the constitution, and after that another round of elections in December.

On polling days the Iraqis voted for a list of candidates rather than for specific individuals and the winning seats in Iraq’s 275-member National Assembly will be handed out according to the party’s showing nationwide.
This fact makes the last 10 percent of the ballots counted as critical as the first 10 per cent, the official said. A strong showing by one party in the last ballots counted could significantly swing the results. Even the prime minister’s job hinges on the final count. The National Assembly gets to choose a three-member presidential council which subsequenty picks the prime minister. The assembly though retains the power of final approval.
While the United Iraqi Alliance is poised to win the maximum seats because of the blessing off Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the highest ranking Shiite cleric, what is of concern to the coalition is that its
228 candidates could be cherry picked by politicians like current prime minister Iyad Allawi whose coalition Iraqi List is also expected to perform strongly. The majority of the United Iraqi Alliance candidates are unaffiliated to any political party.

While Shiite leaders assert that they would have the necessary two third majority (imperative for any group to form the government) because of an understanding with the Kurdish parties, the spanner in the works could come from Allawi’s Iraqi list if they manage to win one third of the seats. They could then block the Shiite coalition coming to power offering instead the alternative of a secular coalition headed by Allawi.
Within the Shiite coalition itself there are many power centres. There is, Ibrahim Jafari of the Dawa party and Adil Abdul Mahdi from SCIRI, who currently serves as the finance minister in the Allawi cabinet.

Besides them there are protégés of Moktada al-Sadr, the rebel Shiite cleric who was responsible for the Najaf battles, and Ahmad Chalabi himself who is unaffiliated to either Dawa or SCIRI.

The likelihood, however, of Allawi pulling off a government will depend upon his group’s ability to patch together the Sunnis, the secular Shiites and the Kurds, who, incidentally, have strained relations with Allawi because he has not allowed them a free hand in the northern city of Kirkuk.

The apprehension in the region stems from a non-secular Shiite coalition coming to power. Even before the elections Jordan’s King Abdullah alleged that more than one million Iranians had crossed the border into Iraq to try and influence the outcome of the polls. Said King Abdullah: "It is in Iran’s vested interest to have an Islamic republic of Iraq . . . and therefore the involvement you’re getting by the Iranians is to achieve a government that is very pro-Iran." Added the King: "If pro-Iran parties or politicians dominate the new Iraqi government, a new crescent of dominant Shiite movements or governments stretching from Iran into Iraq, Syria and Lebanon will emerge, and alter the traditional balance of power between the two main Islamic sects….If Iraq goes Islamic republic, then, yes, we’ve opened ourselves to a whole set of new problems that will not be limited to the borders of Iraq. I’m looking at the glass half-full." In fairness, it should be mentioned that the King himself is Sunni.
Even in Saudi Arabia there are misgivings. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Abdullah recently convened a dialogue between Sunni and Shiite clerics—a diplomatic exercise in anticipation of Iraq being ruled by Shias for the first time in its history. The country is fearful that a non-secular, elected Shia government could catch the imagination of Shiite minorities around the Arab world to demand more power for themselves.

In Iraq itself many Sunnis boycotted the elections for a variety of reasons—fear of militants, Jihad, the Jews, Iranians and the Americans. In many Sunni cities voting was abysmal. In Ramadi, for instance, just 300 people out of 400,000 voted. Northwest of Baghdad, where insurgents still hold sway, the Sunnis also stayed away. Many voting stations stayed closed and only 1,400 of the 200,000 residents of Samarra are thought to have voted.

Even in the run-up to the election there were severe problems for election workers in provinces like Nineveh. Predominantly Sunni, every election worker quit because of threats from militants. All the election workers had to be replaced—90 per cent coming from outside the province.

In some areas, however, it wasn’t so disappointing. Says James Hider, "The governor of the predominantly Sunni province of Anbar claimed a 30 per cent turnout. As a governor he probably has reason to be optimistic but the turnout could have been between 20-30 per cent."
Even in the middle class Sunni areas of Baghadad like Monsour the turnout was very optimistic and defied expectations.

There are some who also believe that the Iraqi elections will have a repercussion on Shiite Iran next door and instead of Iranians influencing Iraq it could be the other way around. Says Thomas Friedman in his New York Times column: "When any Iranian reform candidate who wants to run can be vetoed by unelected ayatollahs, and any Iranian newspaper can be shut by the same theocrats, that is not democracy. You can call that whatever you want, but not democracy.

They don’t allow bikinis at nudist colonies and they don’t serve steak at vegetarian restaurants, and theocrats don’t veto candidates in real democracies. The Iraqi Shiites just gave every Iranian Shiite next door a demonstration of what real "Islamic" democracy is: it’s when Muslims vote for anyone they want. I just want to be around for Iran’s next election, when the ayatollahs try to veto reform candidates and Iranian Shiites ask, Why can’t we vote for anyone, like Iraqi Shiites did? Oh, boy, that’s going to be pay-per-view."

However, if the Sunni community, on the whole, started to feel short changed by the process it might mean civil strife in Iraq. But there have been conciliatory noises from the Shia leadership. Says Ibrahim Bahr al-Uloum, a former oil minister in the Iraqi government: "We are looking at ways of including Sunnis in the future government. I doubt very much Iraq will witness a civil war in the short or long run. We reassure our brothers that any step Iraq takes must include all parts of Iraq."

Besides, Iraq’s new constitution has to be approved by a referendum and can be vetoed by three of the 18 provinces. Says British Foreign Minsiter Jack Straw: "The Sunni have everything to gain by being involved in this process and I suspect that they will do so now that they can see the elections as a whole have been so overwhelmingly endorsed."

And endorsed they have been. Out of about 14 million eligible voters the turnout could have been as high as 70 per cent. An official tabulation is going on.

Says Jean-Pierre Kingsley, chief of the UN backed International Mission for Iraqi Elections: "Certainly, as a starting point where one considers from where the Iraqi people are coming ... this is very good, this is a very good process. The Iraqi elections generally meet international standards."

Importantly, a significant mental shift might have occurred post-elections. If Sunni militant activity continues after the formation of the new government it would be against an Iraqi government elected by the Iraqi people. The Americans wouldn’t be an excuse anymore.