The Future of Indo Pak Conflict

The roots of this conflict are deep. Roots which go back 1300 years in history.

Broad stages of this process are as following:--

1-Initial Arab Muslim Attacks and the Carmathian Kingdom of Multan -711-1005

2-Turkish Muslim Attacks from what is now modern Afghanistan -1005-1206

3-Establishment of Muslim Dynasty in India and rules of various dynasties-1206-1526

4-Mughal Empire 1526-1707

5-Fragmentation of Mughal Empire and Hindu Sikh and Jat Revolts -1707-1748

6-Consolidation of Hindu and Sikh States in India -1748-1803

7-Sikhs and Hindu States Challenged and Muslims Rescued by English East India Company 1803-1849.

8-Complete British Control on India 1849-1947

9-Partition of India and Establishment of Pakistan and Bharat

10-Re start of the Hindu Muslim struggle and its continuation -1947-todate including three wars and a series of multiple undeclared wars.

The partition of India did not end the Hindu Muslim confrontation because of the genocide during transfer of population and the Kashmir Dispute.

Both states were suspicious of each other which led to three wars. Both states launched various undeclared proxy wars against each other.

The major trends were :--

1-Militarisation and an arms race between the two states from 1947 till todate.

2-Resort to military means to achieve ends in 1947,1965 and 1971.

3-Acquisition of nuclear power by India and in turn Pakistani nuclear acquisitions -1973-1998.

4-The 1971 war which created Bangladesh another Muslim state and the deep psychological trauma of defeat in Pakistan.

5-The Afghan war which militarised Pakistan and introduced a new militant Islam consisting of many non state actors-1978-2008 and the trend is intensifying.

6-The Afghan guerrilla war and its repetition in Kashmir

7-Another homegrown religious militancy in shape of Shia Sunni rivalry following Iranian revolution of 1979.

8-US occupation of Afghanistan in 2001 which further complicated the issue.


The major features of the situation are:--

1-Continuous increase in conventional forces since 1947 on both sides.

2-Acquisition of nuclear weapons and missile technology by both sides.

3-An ever increasing intelligence operations waged by both sides right from 1947 , notably focussing on ethnic wars,sectarian wars,terrorist acts with both sides using neighbouring states like Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, UAE, Tajikisatn, Iran, Burma, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and various other countries as launching pads.

4-Increase in population and rapid decrease in resources on both sides notably the water and power issues.

5-Both countries are multi ethnic while India has a large Muslim minority. Both countries have a nationalities problem.

6-Various third parties want to use both Pakistan and India against each other or against China , notably this includes both USA and China,so this further complicates the issue.


Seen in this context the future trends would be :--

1-The intelligence wars will continue in Indian, Balochistan, Karachi, Pashtun areas and Afghanistan and both sides will try their best to undermine each other.

2-Conventional wars will not be fought because of the nuclear deterrent but wars will be fought by economic warfare, low intensity warfare etc.

3-Islamic extremism will remain a rising and expanding phenomenon and would have the potential of seriously destroying Pakistan.

4-A superpower intervention to denuclearise Pakistan is a distinct possibility in next ten years if superpower efforts to bring change through covert means and through cultivated elements fail in Pakistan.

The conflict will continue unless :--

1- A major armed conflict decides the issue- 50 %
2- Unless both India and Pakistan are Balkanised or one of them is Balkanised - 50 %
3-Both the states are denuclearised and settle their disputes- 10 %
4-The stalemate continues with the silent intelligence wars going on for the next 50 years --- 60 % chance

Having said that I must add one incident that my father narrated when he visited West Germany in 1988. He asked the hosts "Can the Germanies unite? " .....not in our lifetime came the reply " ......and it happened in 1991. So prophecy in history is not easy. Sometimes all that we assess proves wrong. So lets hope for the best.