Game Theory and Pakistan

There is a basic distinction between “zero-sum” games and “non-zero-sum” games. In zero-sum games the fortunes of the players are inversely related. In tennis, in cricket, the player(s) gain is the other player(s) loss. In non-zero-sum games, the player(s) gain need not be bad news for the other(s) as in the case of playing stock market or getting into a relationship, hoping for a win-win situation. While in zero-sum games, it is always win-lose situation; in non-zero-sum games, it is either win-win or lose-lose outcome.

The invasion of India by the Islamic armies under the leaderships of Mohammad Bin Qasim, Mahmud Ghaznavi and others produced zero-sum results. The winners extended the eastern boundaries of their empires to Indian sub-continent in addition to the benefits of booty and plundering whereas the Desis lost their lives, livelihood and way of life. Many Desis hoped to turn their loss into a non-zero sum, win-win situation by converting to the ways of the victors. The winners expected the converts to completely lose their previous identities and accept the native identities of the victors but the Desis turned out to be too resistant to abandon their past identities completely. In the case of Christianity, the reformation and Vatican II in 1959 finally yielded to the local vernacular and cultures but Islamists have thus far been resisting similar changes. This is the constant source of friction between Islamists and Desis in Pakistan. The team must sideline this player, if they want to win.

Unfortunately, from the Islamists perspective, a non-zero win-win situation never materialized between Islam and Pakistan or Muslims and Desis. The Two-Nation-Theory originally proposed Muslims of India as separate nation and hoped for a win-win situation for Muslims as well as non-Muslims. It is a mistake to extrapolate TNT into “Muslims as one nation”. In Bengal, Raghib Ahsan proposed a separate Muslim homeland for Bengali Muslims which became the vision of Suharwardy, Abul Hashim and even of Fazal-Ul-Haq, the man who proposed the Pakistan resolution in 1940 in Lahore. Even during the peak of the Pakistan Movement, several luminaries including G. M. Syed, Khan A. Ghaffar Khan and Abdul Samad Achakzai were against strong center for all Pakistanis, a far cry from a common center for all the Muslim world. The chances of anything like, “millataiN jab mit gayeN, ajza-e-imaN ho gayeN” happening were and still are nil. It is thus a zero-sum game; a victory for Islamists for a strong center for Ummah would be a defeat for Desis, who will strongly oppose any move to melt away the western boundaries of Pakistan. The concept of Ummah is fast losing its appeal among the educated Pakistanis because they see no Muslim country coming forward to assist Pakistan whenever we needed them. If the 53/ 54 year history of Pakistan is any guide; every Islamists victory has adversely effected Pakistan. Similarly, Pakistanis and Ummah can not be the winners simultaneously. The fortunes of Pakistan are inversely tied to the followers of Ummah philosophy. The majority of Pakistanis are the descendant of the native converts and their languages, cultures and traditions are very different from the war-like tribal cultures of central Asian states. An Islamic Pakistan unnaturally ties us with them, not to speak of obscurantism and retrogressive tendencies associated with it.

The involvement of Pakistan in Afghanistan affairs during the last twenty years is a lose-lose situation for both Pakistan and Afghanistan. While USA and USSR played a zero-sum game with USSR losing to USA, Pakistan and Afghanistan ended up in non-zero-sum lose-lose situation. Pakistan decided to play in the major league without even knowing how to play the game. Their inexperience, lack of long-term planning and use of religion in international politics came back to haunt them in the form of drug culture, gun culture, refugee problem, sectarian strives and jehadi groups. Afghanistan came out of this ordeal worst than they have ever been.

Most of the politicians, bureaucrats, military and feudal in Pakistan have been deeply rooted in the philosophy of zero-sum games. Their mindset do not think of win-win situations. The Islamic orthodoxy and literal exegesis of Quran and liturgy has also contributed to see everything as black or white, right or wrong, good or bad all the way to winners or losers. They intentionally implement such policies where only they are the winners and everybody else is a loser. This is parasitic in nature and the elite in Pakistan are nothing short of omnivorous parasites. If politicians win, banks lose; if Generals win, democracy loses; if mullahs win, humanity loses, if Islamist win, Pakistan loses and if Taliban win, women lose---no win-win situation anywhere in sight.

All the past political rivalries; Zia against Z. A. Bhutto, Benazir Bhutto against Ghulam Ishaq Khan and vice versa, Benazir against Nawaz Sharif against G. I. Khan and vice versa and Pervez Musharraf against Nawaz Sharif were zero-sum games where the winner of earlier games became the loser in the next game and sooner or later the current victor will lose to someone else. Unfortunately for Pakistan, zero-sum games extend beyond the elections and political rivals turn to mortal enemies. On top of this, certain vested interests have always fanned such rivalries leading to the decline of Pakistan as a state.

One wonders why we have been so keen playing zero-sum games? Why have zero-sum games been the dominant discourse in our collective psyche? Some of the answers could be found in our upbringings. Since early childhood, we have been fed a diet of good-or-evil instead of different levels of goodness. An image of a nemesis in every area is permanently imprinted on our minds: Man against devil--devil against man, Man against self (nafas), man against nature--nature against man. There is much less which is prescribed, there is lot more which is prohibited.

It is possible to apply game theory to almost all the major and minor events in the history of Pakistan. Any future planning in the areas of economics, democracy and international relations must be thoroughly analyzed before implementation. First of all a zero-sum games during peace time must be restricted to elections or sports only. It should never be applied to relationships, friends, families, neighbors, governance and all those people we have to live with. As a nation and Pakistanis, we must always try to find solutions in a non-zero sum ways, and intelligently implement revival plans with the maximum probability of win-win situation.

A small good step here, a small good initiative there are too little too late. Pakistan needs wholesale changes of vision, identity and way of governance. The whole system need to be turned upside down. If it means to sideline sacred cows in the name of identity, so be it. I am not suggesting some Pol Pot solution. I am suggesting for the concerned masses of Pakistan to rise up and once and for all get rid of current as well as historical baggage and take control of their destiny. Decentralize all authorities, make every little community empowered with most of the governance left to local elected representatives. Create a national database to effectively collect revenues and land redistribution according to agricultural reforms. Abolish curriculum wing completely and let the natural human goodness dictate the curriculum for each school or school district.

Pakistan must also be very concerned about the plight of the women. Quick death penalty for people involved in honor killing and stove-burning crimes. At least 60 percent of the education budget should be ear-marked for women education until they achieve parity in literacy level. All the officials and activities of the family planning department must be dominated by women. This alongwith education must be given the highest priority.

Marginalize obscurantism. Allow all cultures and sub-cultures to flourish freely. Let us create democracy with Desi flavor.