Pakistan Rocked

It was Saturday, October 8 2005 and long weekend. I had just got up to answer a call when everything started shaking. My wife came running and yelling at kids to get out as the earthquake had struck. I took position below the staircase and waited for everyone to leave. Then I got into the open lawn. Everything was vibrating and flower pots hanging from the patio were swaying like pendulums. I looked up and the WAPDA electricity wires were moving and short circuiting. The electric pylon with the transformer was dancing to and fro and there seemed no end. Never ever had I experienced such shaking, though I had experienced lesser jolts in 1974. The earthquake lasted about 5 minutes after which I moved indoors. Thankfully the electricity was running and the computer still connected to the net. The TV channels had still not announced the news. I went on the net but saw no alert. Then I saw a fellow chowkie on Yahoo and shared the news, but there was no response. I went to the unplugged and announced the earthquake to the world. This happened around 0910 hours while the world was yet to learn of the tragedy that had befallen Pakistan.

ARY broke the news first with no details. Soon the official chatterbox was on air downplaying the earthquake and tragedy. Skeptically, I called a friend in Islamabad but could not understand what he was telling me. His voice was muffled with sounds of shouting, shrieking and sirens. Then I received an SMS, ‘SOS, I am at Margalla Towers organizing rescue, where is the rescue service?’ A few minutes later GEO broke the news that Margalla towers had collapsed. The media czar was still busy on ARY with his spin of ‘all is well’. Ironically, the breaking news caption at the bottom flashed that a high rise in Islamabad had collapsed. This disconnect was a measure of the days to come.

I was keen to know where the epicenter was. I found the Japanese seismology website. After repeated refreshes it announced the epicenter to be near Balakot and of 7.8 magnitude. I immediately announced on Chowk that the zone of Balakot Muzzarafabad had been hit and that the things were likely to get worse. The question is how was I so alert and prompt?

May this year, I had returned from my expedition to the NARA Desert in Sindh. While studying the geology and the anthropology of the area and how it desertified, I learned that the entire area of Pakistan was infested with fault lines like the AllahWala Bund running through Karachi (that created Tsunamis 20 feet high), Chaman Fault, Kohistan Fault, Sargodha Fault, Hazara Fault and one running right next to my house, the Soan Fault. I had used this knowledge to argue with hydrologists regarding the seismic feasibility of Basha Dam and saved the information on my computer. Now it was all a reality and the data saved in February this year a guide to guess what devastation lay ahead.

Breaking away from the Karakoram Highway near Balakot, the road to Naran and Kaghan, meanders along the face of steep and lush green mountains that form the extreme bob of the Hazara Tectonic Plate till it fuses into the Kohistan Massif. Thereon it moves into the south easterly direction north of Sri Nagar to Nepal and beyond. It was such tectonic activity millions of years ago that created Malika Parbat and Saiful Maluk. In 1554 another powerful earthquake had hit. Based on this data, seismologists had predicted an overdue earthquake on the Hazara Fault with an intensity of 8, in an area covering Kaghan to Srinagar. The seismologists and geologists had been as accurate as they could. The Japanese information said it all and I knew that a massive tragedy had already taken place. It was time for limiting the damage and saving lives.

As the national and international efforts scrambled to synergize their efforts for the rescue of victims, it will take time before the true picture of the disaster emerges. Worst hit areas are so remote and inaccessible that even in normal circumstances, it will need a superhuman effort by the entire relief effort to rescue them in time. If not enough, even the weather is being unkind as most of Northern Pakistan plunges into sub zero freezing temperatures in the coming weeks.


The Landscape of Nuclear Winter

In the course of may many visits to the devastated area, I can highlight a line running on the northern ridge of Kaghan Valley, north of Balakot and Garhi Habib Ullah to north of Muzaffarabad and Bagh. A spur of this ridgeline overlooks Batgaram located on the Korakoram Highway. The entire mountain ranges have slipped taking with them villages located on the terraced slopes. This line of ridges is most distinct by white cuttings all along. Both Balakot and Bagh are located on this ground zero and have obviously suffered the most. As if the tragedy befallen was not enough, the first few days were marred by bad weather and poor visibility limiting helicopter rescue missions, a time just enough to allow those buried under the rubble to die. As the people of remote areas await relief, the dark angles of death in gangrene and tetanus prowl the wounded and infected.

The epicenter 10Kms below Balakot located at a height of 3Kms above sea level means that the epicenter was in fact 7 Kms below sea level, a factor that could have contributed to the wide spread of the shockwaves and the ripples it had, as far away as thousands of Kms. The epicenter of the shock waves continues to move north, means that the rift continues to travel and the two tectonic plates have yet not fused, meaning aftershocks, instability on minor faults and fear of more quakes if plate displacement takes place. Most damage appears to be in the areas north of this line where it fuses into the Kohistan Massif and is still inaccessible. Satellite pictures show formation of a lake on one of the tributaries of Neelum River which could bring floods in the area. In due course, when the nature takes over and the devastation is beautified by the flora and fauna, a generation would have been forgotten and resigned to the thesis of geologists and anthropologists.

With conflicting news pouring from different channels and the perceived scale of destruction and suffering, I hired a 4x4 on 11th and left for Balakot with my son. Till the Balakot Garhi Habib Ullah junction, destruction was not much. However as I neared Balakot, true scale of the tragedy began to unfold. Balakot presents a scenario of a nuclear winter. Not a house is left standing. The entire town is flattened and the terrace balconies of high rise buildings lie on the ground like cattle fences, crushing below them two to four floors. The roads were congested with relief vehicles brought by volunteers who were also trying to regulate the traffic. The road beyond the Pine Restaurant was still blocked and pedestrians were trying to find ways around it. In the middle of the town I saw a brigadier of the army with another officer and a lady doctor in uniform distributing relief and attending to the wounded. It was evident that the group was acting in their individual capacities. They had come from Islamabad and would do so for the next two days. Barring them no writ of the federal or provincial authority was visible anywhere. Some local relief groups and foreign media had already moved in with remarkable speed. Apart from a few dozers of FWO clearing the landslides, there were no excavators and diggers to be seen. Locals and volunteers were searching with spades, picks and whatever was expedient with wailings all over. Despite the unbearable stench, hopes were still alive. As night fell, the city was covered in darkness except for the odd fires lit by the people.

Next day I moved to Muzaffarabad. The road from Garhi Habib Ullah to Balakot is badly damaged and its parent ridgeline ruptured all along. At places the road has dramatically risen and at others sunk beyond use. FWO has made quick diversions and Muzaffarabad was accessible via this route much before Murree-Muzaffarabad road was opened. The tale of destruction along this route is the same as Balakot.

Comparatively, Muzzafarabad, the capital of Azad Kashmir has suffered less damage which does not imply that it was spared the wrath. About 40% buildings are still standing, half of them with serious cracks. Wherever the structural engineering has been good, buildings even on the immediate fault are left unscathed, like the Srinagar bus terminal, Special Communication Organization’s building and the Caltex Petrol pump. Much of the destruction in Muzaffarabad is due to faulty structural engineering and town planning bespeaking a culture of massive corruption. At places, private three story buildings stand unscathed amidst total destruction.

Bagh has suffered badly and flattened like Balakot.

The army positioned on the line of control suffered heavy casualties. Most military logistic installation in Muzaffarabad including the hospital is flattened. Eye witnesses recount that the entire town was engulfed in dust and for the first few hours visibility was poor. However it goes to the credit of local units who regrouped despite odds and began the relief work within hours. I saw foreigners particularly from Malaysia, Singapore and Holland digging into rubble along with volunteers from down country and soldiers. The administration of the city by default had landed in the hands of the army and rangers. The local civil administration appeared to be on leave. There were announcements in the city calling elected representatives back to duty and organize relief efforts in their constituencies. On the flip side, I saw a colonel of the army organizing relief efforts. I was told that he lost two children in the disaster.

Down country, the frenzy to reach out to the destruction zones is manifested by unending long line of loaded trucks and volunteers. The nation has come into its own, and demonstrated character that has surprised all foreign aid groups in the area, and bypassed all fissures characterized with the internal instability of Pakistan. While appreciating the civic response that eclipses a credible relief effort by the government itself, Mr. Brett Williams of Direct Relief International commented to me that he had seen such a response lacking in the Tsunami and New Orleans disasters.

Estimates of casualties given by the army appear conservative. The entire area is interspersed with narrow meandering and climbing tracks that lead to villages of 10-15 houses. Most of the construction in the towns and villages linked by road heads is shanty and not designed to take a shock of 7.6. This is also the area where medical aid is otherwise scanty and has amongst the highest mortality rates of the country. Sliding of entire mountains ranging in heights from 2-6 Kms above sea level means massive land slides, avalanches and mudslides that block roads, cut off water streams and threaten to block rivers. A similar slide in the early 19th century near Bunji triggered a flood that wiped out an entire Sikh Army near Attock (River Indus) and flooded areas right up to Karachi. The disaster relief is a Herculean effort by any standards, for the most developed countries. As per satellite estimates, over 200,000 building structures have been destroyed. Even if one person died per building, the death figure is over 200,000. Wounded and displaced could be many times over. According to doctors in PIMS, 15% patients have to get their limbs amputated due to gangrene.

After a Fortnight

It is 0200 Hours 24th October 2005. I am just back from Balakot, the city of dead abandoned even before a concerted effort was made to rescue those that deserved it. The only activity seemed to be the hustle bustle of numerous national and international relief organizations looking for people they could feed. Tears have since dried and people move around silently with not a word to speak. They are broken down to every sinew and their wailings have since long given way to an eerie silence and resignation. As I stood photographing the cracked highway memorial, a small group from the mountains descended into the town. When they turned the last bend and took full view of Balakot, the awe and despair on their faces was noticeable. The man I met had walked for three days to reach Balakot to seek help for his family. He was shaken to see a city destroyed beyond recognition and collapsed with his head in his hands. I wanted to give him water but he refused saying that he was fasting. The brave but broken man had been walking for the past 13 hours with a very strong faith, only to see his hopes shattered. As Azan in the far distance sounded Iftar, I pretended to share those holy moments with him thinking, that if indeed this was the wrath of God then why on such simple people with such strong faith? As the sun set behind the hills a little child of three walked up to me in this ghost town. Uncle, please search my shoes for me, he said as I looked down at his tiny bare feet stepping on the rubble. To him, he had lost his dearest possession.

Long ago, the rich elites had given up congested Muree and Nathiaghali to the upstarts and flocked to Kaghan in Mitsubishi Shogans, Nissan Patrols and Lexus Land Cruisers. It’s the land of folklore, where fairies descend on the pristine lake and tales of romance take place; a land where trout abounds and people find a heaven from the scorching summers of down south. The tragedy there is little known. The fairyland hides in obscurity through inaccessibility, completely cut off by road after having been hit by a power of at least 7.6. Even the fairies with all their miraculous power have abandoned it to the destructible fate. However, there is hope. Chopper pilots coming back from rescue missions report that Kaghan and Naran have suffered less, though the valley leading to it is all smashed.

This is my most recent visit to the area. In my last visit Balakot, that dominates the transport and timber business in Pakistan was punctuated with hope for survivors from the rubble. I saw people anxiously poking around and listening for signs of life amidst a stench of death. Fourteen days hence, the piles of rubble looked the same except where they are cleared to make way for vehicles. All those who survived the initial jolt and kept imploring for help are since dead. There are no visible signs that an effort was ever made to rescue them. The might of disaster and weight and size of concrete slabs was well beyond the limited earth moving plant available in the area. The stench has given way to the strong odor of formalin, a disinfectant sprayed in the area. The line of slipped mountains passes right through this road bend sweeping with it some of the most beautiful roadside tourist restaurants on way to Kaghan, a spot I had frequented in the past to photograph Balakot down below on both sides of the meandering river. The sheer force of the quake has broken the road at every yard and raised or lowered portions creating bumps reminiscent of the people who once inhabited this area. Close by, there is a multi story school building collapsed like an accordion with one roof on another. Volunteers of ZINDAGHI TRUST told me that not a single child amongst the odd 500 inside was saved.

ZINDAGHI like many other relief organizations is doing a remarkable job in the area. Seeing a sign of the Cross on their camp, I stopped to meet the volunteers. Most turned out to be Christian Boy Scouts from Karachi who had just returned after ferrying loads to distant mountain houses on their backs. They were in very high spirits led by a serving army officer on leave. I kept wondering how motivation had worked wonders for these sea level people to climb mountains with heavy loads. Likewise many industrial houses like Dewan Salman, Dewan Mushtaq and Pepsi Faisalabad have set up their own relief camps. Most remarkable are the military hospital set up by UAE and the Korean Buddhist Hospital. Close by there is a relief camp and hospital operated by the Chinese as well as a Women Hospital run by Catholic Nuns of Pakistan.

Signs of order are now more visible. I failed to discern if it are more due to the organizational ability of the army or resignation on part of the local communities. But one thing is for sure. Help never reached them in time. Now there are too few seeking it.

Khuda Tujey Kisi Tufan se Ashna kar de
Ke Teri Beher ki Maojon Mein Irthash Nahin
So what does the future hold? For sure the VILLAGE OF KHAIRRUDIN has woken from its slumber. The people of Pakistan have galvanized and risen to the challenge unprecedented in recent history. It is not mine but the view of all relief agencies that have come to Pakistan and bring with them the experience of Guatemala, Mozambique, Tsunami and New Orleans. Just like the ripples sent out when the vanguards of the Hazara and Eurasian Plates clash, the people of Pakistan are imbued with a doer’s zeal and zest. I have seen the richest leading relief convoys to the disaster areas. This is an addictive syndrome and anyone who goes there once, goes again and again. Just this evening, I met an industrialist from Dubai who has transferred his entire savings to Pakistan, given up on his farmhouse in Islamabad and spending all that he has on relief. Gracefully he is not the only one. I have seen wives and daughters of the dirty rich changing diapers of little children in the PIMS and washing the impaired. I have seen boys and girls of the Islamabad elite schools acting as ward orderlies. I have seen the poorest thronging to the chanda boxes and donating their last dime. I have seen womenfolk living all by themselves for weeks despite many aftershocks in a day, because the able bodied have gone to far flung areas for relief.

Let us be realistic. The entire demographic landscape has gone berserk. By a conservative estimate about 30% are dead. By the same token another 30% are now physically impaired. Omitting the old, women and children, hardly 20% of the original population is able bodied. Dreams and talk of building 21st century cities has to be replaced by ground realities and doable goal posts. Based on this pessimistic assessment my conclusions are:-

1. Reconstructed towns will have to be smaller, well dispersed and structurally sound with free education and health facilities.

2. Muzaffarabad would suffice with two hospitals, one university, two colleges and about four schools. The requirements of other towns would be proportionately lower.

3. All major villages must have two schools and a Basic Health Unit manned by doctors.

4. About 30% of the impaired population should not be expected to climb mountains. These people have to be settled down in the valleys and educated in skills and specializations commensurate to their disability. The government must create all Pakistan quotas for these disabled people in all government, public and private sector employment houses.

5. Both Muzaffarabad and Manshera must have State of the Art artificial limb centers using latest man machine interfaces.

6. Rehabilitation centers have to be set up for those in psychological trauma.

7. Civil society must be incorporated in the entire reconstruction and rehabilitation process.

8. The government must move towards national reconciliation and capitalize the great character shown by the nation and not betray their sentiments.