One Down Two to Go

Yesterday at 8.30 pm on a tip-off 600 soldiers of the 4th Infantary Division captured Saddam Hussein in a farm house nine miles outside of Tikrit. He had a loaded pistol on him at the time of capture.

He appeared bearded, disheveled and disoriented. He was shifted to a secure location and was given a medical. He was shaved and is reportedly cooperating with the authorities with their interrogation.

In a two minute press appearance President Bush said, “Now the former dictator of Iraq will face the justice he denied to millions. The capture of this man was crucial to the rise of a free Iraq."

Ironically, a few days earlier news reports coming out Baghdad showed the Provisional Iraqi Governing Council unveiling a Court Room where captured Iraqi leaders would be tried. Looks like their wish has come true.

Will Saddam be tried in the Hague? Unlikely

The powerful neconziX in the US administration recognizes the importance of the trial of the century. Where are you judge Ito? And short of embedding reporters in the court house they will do their utmost best to control the outcome from that court room. This could perhaps be achieved with better results if the trial is held in US occupied Iraq.

Maj.Gen. Raymond Odierno, the commander of the 4th Army said that no communications equipment was found anywhere in the sparsely furnished farm house. Reaffirming the belief that the nation-wide insurgency the occupying US forces face in Iraq are decentralized, spontaneous and local.

You will have read the reaction of the major media and local press and by the various government leaders by now.

On the unplugged dost-mittar opened a thread What Happens to Iraqi Insurgency Now at 7.26 am PT today. Here is a sampling of Chowkie comments from there:

My gut feeling is that it would intensify now that the cat is out of the bag. Iraq is bound to become the disney world for jihadis all over, unless George W finds an exit strategy now that mr. baker has been launched.--hellbound

The US is likely to get an immediate boost. But will it end the insurgency? It is quite clear that all this time, Saddam was too busy saving him self and was not active in organizing the resistance against the Americans. Still, he was the most powerful symbol of that resistance. Would Americans have been better off with a martyred Saddam than with an alive one?--dost-mittar

… the resistance would continue… Iraq is the only place where American targets are available in an urban guerilla warfare situation….--ajeet

ajeet: When americans put him on trial, their own kaali-kartoots will come in the open too. When Saddam was doing his worst act of human rights abuse, chemical attacks on Hallabja in March 1988, guess who was helping Saddam in his war against the Iranians? ....nor will the good guys French and Germans escape, they too were arming and helping Saddam back then.--dost-mittar

Yes, I agree with dost-mittar that Saddam was not a force or symbol for resistance…--sameerJB

the fun has just begun... or the nightmare! ….watch bush mangle this re: the trial ….if it is in-camera he will be criticized ….if it is in public wily saddam will massacre US adminstrations …watch for a despicable despot turn into a martyr!--temporal

No one can ever predict what americans would do, but one thing is for sure they would defy logic--they are known for that!--hellbound

I think Saddam factor will not play in the US elections. Saddam was not a threat to US. No evidence has ever been produced to suggest his hands in any terrorist activities. What can help most President Bush is actually another major terrorist act against US by OBL. It will corner Dean on security issue. Similarly major loss of US soldiers in Iraqi insurgency near the election will hurt Bush badly.--sameerJB

I think Saddam’s capture changes little. He was found without any communications equipement (cell phone or the like) so it’s highly unlikely he orchestrated the insugergency/terrorism anyway. But there is one good thing about the capture... Can you imagine the sheer delight that many Iraqis must feel seeing the man humiliated and hopefully brought to justice now. It’ll be interesting to see how soon he will stand trial--PM

Do you think the neoconziX dominated and driven current US adminstrartion would be able to:
 control the insurgency?
 Hand over power to Iraqis
 Get out of Iraq voluntarily
 Would get further bogged down in Iraq?
 Iraq would disintegrate like Afghanistan?
 Iraq would become the new Mecca for heaven-bound fringe Muslims?

There are other questions. We can probe them later. For now, over to you.