Why is Bush so Keen on a Nuke Deal ?

Prez Bush signed a “historic” deal with India whereby US will provide India with the latest nuclear technology for producing electricity, i.e. for Civilian = peaceful purposes.

The broad terms of the deal are :

• India is not required to sign the NPT (Non Proliferation Treaty) which India has always labeled as “Nuclear Apartheid” because it is biased in favor of existing owners of nuclear power, and against the new owners of nuclear power, such as India.
• India will continue to have its military nuclear installations, i.e. those that make atomic bombs, some 8 out of 22 nuclear installations that India has as of date.
• India will allow IAEA to have full access to the other 14 “civilian” installations which are solely for generating electricity.

Press reports say that the deal was struck within an hour of the initial discussions between Prez Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The Press states that Bush’s aides told him that there were very great differences between the view-points of US and India. It seems that Bush said “I don’t care what the differences are – get me the deal.”

Why was Prez Bush so keen to close the deal ? More on that later.

Nevertheless, Prez Bush has to convince Congress to ratify the deal. That will not be easy. There is severe criticism from Democrats, and also some Republicans, that the Prez is moving the goal-posts, viz. :

• Bush is providing nuclear technology to a nation that refuses to sign the NPT. This is against stated US policy.
• What about Iran, North Korea and Pakistan ? Will they get the same deal : i.e. Technology without signing the NPT ?

On the Indian side there are major concerns, too :

• How important is Nuclear energy to India anyway ? How much of India’s energy needs will this deal meet ? Why not go for the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline ?
• What un-disclosed concessions will India have to give to US to get this deal through ? Will these compromise India’s military nuclear capabilities ?

Prez Bush acknowledged that the deal would require a lot of work on both sides, for Bush to convince Congress, and Singh to convince the Communists (who hold a key 62 seats in the Indian parliament) that the deal is a good one, for both US and India.

Prez Bush emphatically stated that the energy demands of the world were increasing too fast, which made all nations in ever-increasing dependency of fossil fuels. The resultant increase in the price of such fuels, coupled with the volatile state of the countries from where these fuels come (= Middle East), places the whole world at risk. If India reduces its demand for fossil fuels, by using nuclear power, it will be good for India, and the world at large.

Prez also repeatedly said that trade with India was very important for the US, and that development of trade was in the interests of both countries.

PM Singh did not make any direct statements as to why the nuclear deal was beneficial to India. He is expected to make a statement in the Indian Parliament on this issue. We have to wait and see what he says, and what the Communists have to say about the terms of the nuclear deal.

Three important side-lines to the whole issue :

• Ms Rice said that there was no possibility for a similar nuclear deal being done with Pakistan.
• Pentagon offered to sell India F-16 and F-18 planes, guaranteed supply of spares, guaranteed up-grades as and when they happen, and even transfer technology and get the planes built in India.
• Price Waterhouse Coopers released a report that said that India will have hundreds of millions of consumers who will buy US products.

Why this sudden flurry of deals ? And why is Prez Bush pushing it ?

My thinking is that the CEOs of Big Business in US have told Bush :

• We want big business at a country which is a Democracy (and hence kosher) and has hundreds of millions of people who will buy our stuff.
• If that means they want nuclear technology, let’s sell that stuff to them (and make big bucks). After all, they have Nukes anyway, and they will let IAEA monitor whatever we sell them. So, US will not take any additional risk.
• You, Mr George W Bush, will be in power for only two more years. Please sort this out for us with Congress.
• Finally, if US does not do the nuclear deal, others will. India has $ 140 Bn dollars in Forex reserves. The economy is growing at 8 % p.a. If we don’t sell the nuclear stuff to them, they will buy it from elsewhere. Do you want France or Russia to cash in ?

The last point has been proven by two news items :
• President Chirac of France has applauded the nuclear deal between US and India, and has said that France would like to provide India with nuclear technology (now that US – big brother – has cleared it).
• The Prime Minister of Australia wants to sell Uranium to India, on the same grounds.

Will Prez Bush be able to “sell” the nuclear deal to Congress ?

A commentator on BBC said that the longer the debate exists within Congress, the more likely it will be for the deal to be ratified by Congress. Time will tell.

Apart from the nuclear deal, and the unexpected offer from Pentagon re F-16s and F-18s,
several other agreements have been signed between US and India during Prez Bush’s visit, which cover a whole range of topics such as agriculture, trade etc.

Prez Bush has also visited the Indian School of Business at Hyderabad, addressed the students, and stated that the youth of India is a vital resource. He met with farmers, too. A very democratic approach !

Prez Bush has promised to increase the number of H1-B visas for Indians.

Where does that leave Pakistan ?

Prez Bush, and thereafter Ms Rice, said that US had one relationship with India, and another relationship with Pakistan, meaning that these relationships were not inter-related. However, US would like to see India and Pakistan resolve all disputes, including that of Kashmir.

We shall wait and see what Prez Bush says in Pakistan.

My feeling is that Prez Bush does not care a whit about Kashmir. He will say the minimum words he is expected to say, to keep Prez Mush happy while not annoying PM Singh. Bush’s prime, and perhaps the only objective, is to set up grounds for the Big Business in US to make money in the sub-continent.

Overall, the visit went beyond the expectations of most observers. Prez Bush, and Ms Rice, were guarded on the issue of India’s permanent membership of the UN Security Council. Hence the possibilities of that happening are remote. It is impractical for anyone to expect that Prez Bush will be able, or even want, to push through all of the items in the wish-list of India. There are priorities. Right now : nuclear deal, F-16s, agriculture, trade etc. When these are done, the Security Council may follow.

Will it ?

My belief is that Prez Bush will only take the steps that :
• benefits Big Business in the US
• can be sold to Congress.

Giving India a permanent seat in the UN Security Council does not help Big Business in the US. Hence it is not in the interests of Prez Bush to push for it. He needs to get the needs of Big Business done asap before he leaves office. However, Prez Bush will continue to tell India : let’s get business going, the UN seat will come soon (inshallah).

What is India’s strategy, then ?

Simple :
• get what India can get right now without compromising nuclear capability
• continue growth and economic development
• get into an ever increasing economic power position

Then, demand the UN seat.

An international chess game !!