Musharraf’s Days are Numbered

A statement by the Pakistan’s Ex-Servicemen’s Society blamed President Pervez Musharraf for the current crisis in the country and said the former army commander no longer “represents the unity and the symbol of the federation as president.” “This is in the supreme interest and it makes it incumbent on him to step down,” said the statement signed by more than 100 former generals, admirals, air marshals and other retired officers and enlisted men. It was issued after a meeting in Islamabad on Tuesday of the association’s leadership. (Yahoo! News, January 23, 2008).


Although political analysts have been writing President Musharraf’s eulogies for about a year, he managed to survive every time against heavy odds. Quoting Mushahid Hussain, secretary-general of the Pakistan Muslim League – Q, Fareed Zakaria wrote, “He’s a cat with nine lives and he still has two left,” (Musharraf’s Last Satnd, Newsweek, January 21, 2008). It appears to me that he is now nearing the end of his ninth political life. Ex-Servicemen’s Society’s (ESS) statement is the last nail in his political coffin.

His main support is in the army and if that gave in, he wouldn’t have any legs to stand on. ESS’s statement is a clear signal that his support in the army has severely eroded. Although the ESS has no direct influence on the army’s serving personnel, its position regarding Musharraf’s continuation as president is hard to ignore and will surely have great impact on how the imminent political spiral winds down.

From all political portents, it seems it’s time for Musharraf to go. If he doesn’t leave voluntarily, he’ll be helped out by force – by the army of course. Although there is no precedent when a ruling general was ousted by the army by force, it might happen if Musharraf didn’t read the writing on the wall and step down. Previously, General Ayub had relinquished the power to General Yahya readily when he realized that he couldn’t continue against the mounting political opposition.

To stem the possibility of a coup against Musharraf, the Chief of the Army staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani issued orders “to all serving officers to abstain from taking any part in political activities and promoting any politician or political paries and to confine themselves to their professional duties.” One last good thing that Musharraf still has the chance to do is to step down. He is intelligent enough to sense when a point of no return is reached. He is already there and should listen to what the retired generals et al are telling him and act before it’s too late. It appears that the serving army also wants him to step down. The only institution that is still reliably intact and remains united in Pakistan is its army although its reputation has greatly been sullied by the recurrent coups. Musharraf shouldn’t do any thing which might divide the army.

General Musharraf firmly believes in his heart, although wrongly I think, that he is a sort of a savior and a Messiah for the continued existence of Pakistan. He should not allow himself to be driven too far by his willful instincts. If the existence of Pakistan is doomed without his leadership as he seems to believe with a vengeance, he cannot stave it off single-handedly. Let him give a chance to others. Although the past record of the politicians is as checkered as that of the army (or perhaps even more), there is a feeling in some quarters that “Pakistan’s political class might (yet) surprise us with its maturity,” (Fareed Zakaria).

Pakistan is not going to die without Musharraf. On the other hand, Musharraf might lose his life if he didn’t step down.