Just the End of the Beginning

There are strong indications that the deaths of thousands of people in a series of terrorist attacks in the Eastern United States is only the beginning of a much bigger tragedy that will slowly unfold; millions could be affected in the near future. From Libya to Afghanistan, things are going to drastically change.

With all fingers pointing towards Osama Bin Laden and Bush administration insistent on keeping no distinction between “terrorists and those who harbor them” the ramifications for Afghanistan and Pakistan are grave.

On the third day after the suicide attacks, every thinking mind is full of questions… and one can only come up with questions.

Will the Taliban stick to their policy of protecting the life of one of their “heroes”, Osama Bin Laden, who, on their behalf, fought against the Soviets? Could protecting Osama BL have a personal dimension too: Mulla Omar, the spiritual leader of Taliban, is reported to be married to Osama BL’s daughter. If Taliban turn down the request of handing the world’s most notorious terrorist over to the US, they will be asking for serious trouble. Are they willing to face the might of a very powerful enemy when they are so vulnerable as to suffer overnight attacks on Capital Kabul, from a small rival group? Could the Taliban leadership split on the issue of Osama BL, and be at war with itself?

And then how much control do the Taliban have over Osama BL? Are they militarily capable of catching Osama BL and handing him over to the US i.e., if, in some magical turn of events, they agree to extradite Osama BL to the US? Or, are they going to ask the Americans to catch Osama BL themselves? Can Osama BL surreptitiously leave Afghanistan, hide somewhere else, and let the starving Afghan people face the wrath of the US?

And what kind of cooperation is Pakistan’s military regime ready to extend to the US? It is one thing to assure the US of Pakistan’s "unstinted cooperation" in the fight against terrorism, and yet another to let the American forces operate from the Pakistani soil. Needless to say that tens of thousands of Pakistanis believe the US to be evil, and consider the militant Islamic groups based in Afghanistan to be their friends. Asking for Pakistan’s cooperation in apprehending Osama BL will be completely different from “asking” Saudi Arabia’s cooperation in reaching Saddam Hussain. To put it more openly, there is little possibility for the US to build up a large, conspicuous armed force in Pakistan.

Could a secret US, Musharraf, Taliban alliance succeed in pulling off an operation in which Osama BL is quietly handed over to the US… a Ramzi Yousuf or Aimal Kansi operation carried out on a much larger scale? Not quite likely --given the widespread support Osama BL enjoys in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

How will the Pakistani religious parties react to any operation against Osama BL? Will they go as far as raising arms against their own government? Could Pakistan be at war with itself? Could Pakistan, in a distant future, become the Algeria of the Subcontinent? Will the ensuing unrest make things quiet in the Indian-held Kashmir, making India the ultimate beneficiary of the situation, or, could the whole Subcontinent plunge in turmoil and chaos?

And will the arraignment of Osama BL be the end of the story? Will the world become a slightly more peaceful place after that? Or, will many more Osama BLs be created after such an apprehension?

These are all very difficult questions. There are no sure answers. The only thing that could be said with some certainty is that the drama has only begun.