Linking Poverty and Population

The link between population growth and poverty in Pakistan continues to be highlighted but for some reason, the government is reluctant to connect the dots. While many take the view that poverty could not be eradicated unless there is a check on the rising population growth rate, the government’s strategy does not seem to consider reducing the growth rate as a priority item.

Currently, official sources in Pakistan put the growth rate at 1.9 per cent but analysts say that this figure cannot be independently verified and fear that it is higher than what is officially quoted.

Despite this, to the government’s credit, the population growth rate has been decelerating in the past ten years or so. In 1981, for example, it stood at over three percent. While this is an achievement for Pakistan, the problem is that even under the present rate, there is a net addition of three million people annually in our total population of about 150 million. This is a very high number of people by any standard. At this rate, our population would reach 220 million within a decade. Given our limited resources, the country would find it difficult to support such a large number of people even with our present GDP growth rate.

Currently Pakistan is the sixth most populous country in the world. It also enjoys the dubious distinction of having the largest people under the poverty line, estimated at over 50 million.

Population growth directly affects the government’s ability to provide adequate social services, particularly in health and education. It also affects the country’s development agenda, as scarce resources have to be distributed amongst a larger number of people. With employment opportunities increasingly becoming limited as a consequence of the population hike, there is also a rush from the villages to the cities by people in search of a livelihood.

This puts additional burden on the urban infrastructure. It is estimated that within ten years over 40 per cent of the total population will live in cities, as compared to 33 per cent at present. This is being seen as a threat to the country’s agro-based economy, which produces cotton, wheat and sugarcane, the backbone of the economy.

Despite some success, it can be said that the government’s efforts at reducing the population growth rate have not yielded the desired results. Government officials themselves concede that in the light of successes seen in Iran and Bangladesh, the religious factors may not be crucial in the drive to reduce population growth rate.

The problem has to do with implementation and changing perceptions amongst people. In this, it would make sense to take help from both religious scholars as well as NGO’s, who can help bring the message home. As things stand, in Pakistan, the percentage of those living below the poverty line is at over 34 per cent.

There is a direct link between the rise in population growth rates and incidence of poverty. If the government is serious about reducing poverty in the country, a much more concerted effort has to be made to reduce the population growth rate, preferably to about 1.3 per cent in the coming years. If this is achieved, the benefits of economic development in the country will finally trickle down to the middle and lower middle classes, where they are needed the most.