The rise of militancy in Pakistan is the topic of today. What is unfolding in front of us in Northern belt is literally horrific and unfortunately that scenario is increasingly becoming a realistic likelihood in Northern Punjab also. It is true that these people have at least achieved a critical mass which is needed to enforce their way of life over local population. What is even more baffling is that while people like Bait Ullah Masud were openly claiming responsibility of suicide blasts, a substantial number of educated urban middle class was actually voicing doubts and attributing every thing to Indian or American involvement. Much more than the population directly under Taliban, the urban middle class’s behavior is perplexing. They until very recent past have actually been hailing the Talibanisation and have been knitting every kind of weird conspiracy theory to absolve them of all the brutal suicide attacks.

Consider this: for two years when fighting was raging in Swat, I kept on hearing that it was all USA conspiracy and Taliban are not behind suicide attacks or do not burn schools. After the Nazam e Adl, when it became clear that Taliban were systemically using violence as a tactic to enforce their version of Islam, suddenly the tone changed but remained supportive. Now Taliban are being interpreted as a “natural� reaction to society’s ills such as inequality, injustice and corruption. This point of view once again absolves them of hideous crimes such as suicide bombings (which again is blamed on USA and India) but seeks to justify their general code of conduct. The media reeks of subtle justification (now that the Taliban have themselves admitted to destroying schools) of Taliban behavior.

Majority of people belonging to urban middle class, I have talked to, have been in this strange state of denial where there have until very recent past refused to admit that Islamic militants were behind anything. No matter that India had to transfer IPL to South Africa, in their strange conspiracy theory logic, India was behind Mumbai attacks and also behind Lahore attack where Sri Lankans were attacked. Mumbai attack, according to their logic was not conducted by extremists but by Indian intelligence with an aim to defame Pakistan and Islam. Then after defaming Pakistan, Indian intelligence conducted Lahore attack with a twin aim of destabilization of Pakistan and defaming Islam!

Some would argue that now everyone has realized that Taliban are too hard line and consequently this class would stop their open support. But the problem is that now this segment is forcing for an accommodative policy on the media. The latest stance being that terrorism is just a “reaction� and nothing else. The most banal argument is that if Pakistan moves away from attacking their “own� countrymen, the hardliners will throw weapons. This argument fails to accommodate the fact that Taliban are actually ideologically motivated and this kind of policy does not bear fruit. Moreover, such policy of appeasement emboldens the Taliban and further enhances the conducive environment in which they can freely breed and multiply. Right now instead of mustering collective support, the way it did for restoration of Judiciary, Media is constantly churning out its versions of justification of Taliban and “solutions� which are nothing but appeasement. People like Imran Khan, despite having little electoral weight, are the chief spokesmen of this lot.

In any society, particularly a modern democratic society, middle class provides a critical as well as decisive mass. Moreover it’s an extremely important contributor to intelligentsia, media and services sector, particularly critical services such as bureaucracy and armed forces. In our side of the world, the middle class particularly urban middle class, eventually is the major determinant of the dominant opinion and even the official policy. This influence is not merely through electorate (where they are always numerically less strong), but through other institutions such as army, judiciary, media and civil bureaucracy as well. An overly conservative middle class results in scenario which we are witnessing today. In my opinion, any analysis which aims to look into this Talibinisation has to look into this drift of middle class, particularly urban middle class into conservatism and religious right. The actual birth of Taliban owes a lot to army and soviet invasion of Afghanistan. But the mindset of the middle class has a significant impact as to why this strategy of patronizing Taliban to create “strategic depth� was adopted by the armed forces (which are mainly drawn from this class and largely remain conservative). Even Musharraf who comparably is considered a “liberal� had no qualms using these fighters along with Pakistan army in Kargil. Moreover, the middle class mindset also explains that why Pakistani newspaper reading public was fully supportive of the rise of Taliban in mid 1990s. In fact print media of those days was painting a “robin hood� picture of Taliban. Moreover, although Taliban may have successfully exploited gaps in the society in impoverished FATA and Swat, but the question remains as to why middle class has been supporting them and now after the blunt acceptance of Taliban that they were behind the violence, trying to justify their actions on media. Ironically this class has always been in power and has grown substantially richer since the late 1990s. If there are “gaps’ in the society, at least urban middle class does not face them the way impoverished masses are facing them.

So what has caused this? Partly the answer lies in the natural predisposition of industrial era capitalistic middle class towards conservative side. Even the liberal segment in the middle class is more skewed towards centre rather than towards the left. The religion comes hand in hand with conservative set of economic as well as social ideals. The social ideals include sexual morals, justice, and non acceptance of corruption. These social ideals are often drawn from the religious doctrines and are consistent with economic system of capitalism. If these social ideals are attacked or at least perceived as being under threat, as a reaction the urban middle class generally starts gravitating more towards the conservative side of the political spectrum. In our country, this started to occur in 1970s under the rule of Zulifiqar Ali Bhutto. ZAB, was a charismatic person who despite being from feudalistic background had managed to galvanize support of the left wing as well as masses. At the same time unfortunately his personal conduct, lifestyle and manner of dealing with sensitive issues dearer to the middle class, actually started this descent of Middle Class towards the more conservative side of the political spectrum. Another error which Bhutto made was a very rapid move towards left without actually creating a conducive environment for this kind of transition (the biggest being not purging the army from hard liners like Zia, instead he promoted him). In the 1977 elections, although the opposition included ANP, but it was conservatives like Asghar Khan and religious parties like Jamat –i- Islami and JUI which provided the main mass. The alleged rigging conducted by ZAB merely added fuel to the fire and created huge scale dislike which was evident in street protests in the urban centers. Pakistan army which draws its rank officers from the middle class was also agitated and finally intervened. Many say that it was mere opportunism of Zia. But a little deep insight would reveal that Zia’s intervention also represented this class’s interests. Not surprisingly Zia once in power started to appease this class by pursuing religious and conservative policies. The entire curriculum was revised to instill religiosity and state apparatus as well as censored media was used. Moreover, Afghan Jihad also gave him the opportunity to further intensify religious fervor. Because of the combination of International events and draconian domestic policies aiming at Islamisation, the middle class became more and more conservative.

However, this conservatism particularly in the 1990s and this decade also owes to the way liberal parties have actually conducted themselves. Whenever there was an opportunity to address a genuine and moderate middle class concern in an effective manner, the liberal parties failed to deliver completely. Moreover their reluctance was seldom ideological but often stemmed from short sighted personal gains. PPP’s role unfortunately has been thoroughly counterproductive. A main stream liberal party has to adhere to some middle class ideals with out compromising on its liberal agenda as not all ideals are contrary to liberal agenda. Freedom of judiciary and lack of corruption have never been anti liberal ideals. And PPP during its successive governments has kept on scoring very low on these grounds. The election results are a clear indication. In February PPP was wiped out from Urban Punjab. PML N used to win before also but look at the margin of defeat this time. Despite BB's death, PPP candidates in Lahore were being beaten by on average 50,000 votes per constituency. The secretary General of PPP, Jehangir Badar in 1993 had gotten 55,000 votes. In 2008, he was roundly defeated by getting only 25,000 votes. PPP’s incompetence has alienated its core base also and its dodgy behaviour has ensured the complete erosion of its support in urban middle class.

Too much publicly pro US stance by successive Governments also helped transfer the moderately liberal section of middle class into conservative fold. Pakistani media today, particularly, the electronic media actually falls into that class. The talk show hosts and the themes of their shows have been increasingly conservative and religious. Moreover Pakistani media’s hard earned independence has unfortunately come at the time where it has actually become conservative. Consequently rather than playing any meaningful progressive role, it is merely reinforcing conservatism and fabricating all kind of weird conspiracy theories. People like Hamid Mir and Ziad Ahmed have actually become superstars and their viewer ship exceeds even the soap operas. While actual Taliban are not affected by all this as they come from totally different section of society, but these opinion shapers are actually instrumental in formulation of engagement policy with the hardliners. Right now media is playing the most dangerous role in perpetuating this accommodative policy. It is reinforcing a prevalent opinion rather than debating any thing on it. Over the years, electronic media has become overly commercialized and airs what now this TV watching urbanites instinctively want to watch. Opinions are not changed or even challenged, just reinforced and strengthened.

As Pakistan faces a serious question of extremism, the overly conservative urban mindset can hardly contribute to any serious solutions. The task ahead of us is very long and huge. Unfortunately at this important juncture, we are still under illusions. Mindset changes over a long time, but opinions and viewpoints can change. Right now the least which liberal elements can do is to conduct efforts to change opinions. We have to at least show that Taliban are threatening everything and should not be trusted. The recent flogging incident and Nazam e Adl has brought out the real face of hardliners. These incidences should be continuously debated by liberal element in a forceful manner to at least change opinions. Once opinions change, transition of mindset begins.