Remember the old saying, what goes around comes around? Mr. Jamali may well take solace from that after his unceremonious departure from perhaps the most ceremonious of public offices.

A quick review of our history over the last five decades- and not the history our bearded moral guardians would have us read, reveals that who so ever toys with the political system detracts from long term political stability and sounds his own political (and at times physical) death knell.

We may begin with Governor general Ghulam Muhammad who dissolved the constituent assembly that had finalized Pakistan’s first constitution, as it did not suit his personal power interests. The governor general didn’t last long however, as he was deposed by Iskander Mirza. Mr. Mirza’s collusion with the military to abrogate the 1956 constitution led to his ouster into exile by Ayub Khan and the dawn of a new presidential form of government. As the political dispensation that Mr. Ayub set up floundered he was shown the door by the very institution that put him there, the military. General Yahya with his own amendments to the system of governance decided, in cahoots with Mr. Bhutto to prevent its functioning by disallowing the elected leader to take the oath of office of prime minister. The result, dismemberment of the state and Yahyas’ exit into the wilderness. Mr. Bhutto, Yahyas replacement trudged along with a civilian dictatorship for a while until he reverted back to a parliamentary form of government enshrined in the 1973 constitution. With in days of the new systems inauguration, Bhutto began tampering with it to create a personal political fiefdom. Unlike his predecessors, Mr. Bhutto was deposed together with the political system he created, not into retirement or exile but rather into the hangman’s noose. General Zia carried on merrily injecting religious intolerance and promoting the mullahization of society for over a decade after seeing Mr. Bhutto to the gallows. Along the way he founded a lop sided system that was helmed ceremoniously by Mr. Junejo until he fell out of favor, together with the system that put him there. Zia was assassinated soon after he dispensed with the system he created. Mr. Sharif in the latter half of the 1990s while he wasn’t wrecking the economy with nuclear tests, runaway corruption and chaotic mismanagement of the affairs of state, decided to take on every independent institution that existed including the press, the judiciary, and finally the army. The outcome, a military coup that sent him packing to the holy land together with the system he distorted.

We now have what has aptly been termed the ‘‘Musharrafian system’’ of government, which appears to be tottering on the brink of a precipice with an increasingly vocal and troublesome opposition led by the MMA on the one hand, and an alarmingly divided ruling party, on the other. Mr. Aziz’s endowment with the crown of thorns that is the prime ministership has of course not helped in uniting a heterogeneous set of individuals in terms of their vision and political outlook but who just happen to members of the ruling party. Mr. Aziz better be as nimble footed as he is well regarded in financial circles, for he’ll be having his legs pulled from within every which way in the coming days and months.


Recent political developments therefore give an all too familiar feeling of déjà vu. Is Mr. Musharraf about to join his illustrious (oops!) political predecessors in political oblivion if his attempt to introduce ‘‘home grown democracy’’ flounders as appears increasingly likely? History as we have seen strongly suggests so. But maybe Mr. Musharraf is relying on the law of large numbers, that may be, just may be this time around he’ll be the one to survive the extinction of his political enterprise.

Mr. Musharraf’s short term political survival rests on his ability to reign in the PML-Q through a carrot and stick approach. Simultaneously he will have to renege on the Faustian bargain he struck with the MMA. The MMA is completely at odds with the Musharrafian vision of ‘‘enlightened moderation’’ as it is for any other enlightened, humane view of the world. The idea of ‘‘keeping your friends close and your enemies closer’’ is clearly not working as the political system is wracked from within by obscurantist and retrogressive forces led by the MMA. Cutting the MMA loose either through sending the assemblies packing in the NWFP and Balochistan or marginalizing them in the opposition will both involve making a deal with the secular, currently marginalized political parties.

Mr. Musharrafs’ medium and long term survival depends on his success in building a political constituency within civil society, which will hinge on his ability to deliver on the economic front and making good on his pledge to decentralize governance through local governments.

That means GDP growth in excess of 8 percent, a serious attempt at poverty alleviation rather than fudging poverty numbers, getting the international community on board not for a paltry $ 3 Billion over the next five years, but rather over $ 5 Billion a year for the next five years in developmental aid and foreign direct investment.

Rapid economic growth takes root in a good institutional environment. That means establishing the writ of the state, restoring law and order in the major cities, making a durable peace with India, and introducing bureaucratic reforms aimed at cutting red tape and minimizing the role of the state in economic activity through arbitrary duties, tariffs and regulations. These deter investment and serve as conduits for channeling funds to corrupt governmental functionaries.

Getting local governments running effectively will involve their fiscal empowerment and giving administrative authority through a constitutionally enshrined separation of powers and a local government cadre. Recent research suggests that the current fiscally starved local governments’ are having to contend over turf with the provincial governments and the bureaucracy who are fighting to maintain their hold on domains that now come within ambits of local governments.

High growth, a significant dent in poverty and grass root level involvement in the affairs of state can also for the first time in Pakistan’s history give its populace an economic stake in governance, which is an essential ingredient for ensuring that a stable political system takes root.


No system can prevail for long unless it is based on a broad consensus and real economic benefits for the majority. (Grundnorm again any one?)

Such policy advice to Mr. Musharraf is not new and so far he hasn’t listened. What makes it particularly relevant given the recent demonstrable unraveling of the Musharrafian system is its historical context. If Mr. Musharraf manages to hold on to power given the rocky road ahead he will indeed have beaten history, for never before has a political leader in Pakistan survived the failure of his political system.