Would 30 January Elections Make or Break Iraq?

Gajendra Singh
Dec 11, 2004

A debate is raging inside , Washington and Moscow and in neighbouring capitals and elsewhere whether the polls scheduled for next January to elect a Constituent Assembly for should be held or postponed, with various parties taking different positions. While , the Iraqi appointed by it and ’s Shiite leadership are insistent on sticking to the date, ’s Sunnis, many Sunni governments in the region, Europe Union and Russia are opposed to it and have suggested postponement. Even if the were held as scheduled, would they solve ’s problems and keep it a united country?

Does it ring a bell?

It may be recalled that in 1966, East ’s Bengali leader Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, later acclaimed the Father of the Nation, because of political and economic deprivation faced by his people, put forward his historic six points, the "Magna Carta" which laid the foundation for its future independence. The Indian subcontinent was partitioned into and in , the latter with its two wings astride , but the movement for autonomy for East , now started within a couple of years because of and cultural differences and economic disparity.

In fact it were the Muslim leaders from Bengal during the British colonial rule, who first raised the question of a home land for Muslims to get rid of Hindu domination. But on gaining independence, Bengalis, who formed more than half of ’s found that now, they were, instead, ruled by West Pakistanis, mostly Punjabis who held 80 to 90% of civil and jobs and controlled favouring West . The inhabitants of Sindh province have always complained of in .

Even if were held on 30 January or some later date under US , there are good chances of events evolving as in after the 1970 for a Constituent Assembly, which gave the Sheikh’s Awami League Bengali party a majority. But the ruling junta in West and its political leader Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, whose People’s Party got the second largest number of seats in the Assembly would not allow Mujibur Rehman to form a . The Sheikh at a public meeting on 7 March, in Dacca, now capital of , attended by around 2 million people declared that "the struggle this time is the struggle for freedom, the struggle this time is the struggle for independence."

The rest is history with a brutal crack down described as genocide by the and killing of intellectuals in East . suffered enormous economic and social strains with nearly 10 million Bengali refugees flooding into following the crack down. became independent with Indian and other assistance. All this happened in the teeth of opposition and threats by US led West along with , while Soviet Union stood solidly behind . But after the defeat of in East , released over hundred thousand prisoners of and withdrew its troops from . has consistently preferred regimes in since 1958, that become even more amenable when granted hardware and end up owing little accountability to the people.

As’Pratap Bhanu Mehta of Center for Research, pointed out recently that even with improving relations with , is still playing the 21st-century version of imperial divide- and-rule game with offers of weapons sales to and . The ruler in the former has happily lapped it and wants more. " It is not a way of calming conflict in the region. It is a way of ensuring that and always remain edgy vis-à-vis each other. What is the American logic for pouring in arms in a region it describes as the hottest conflict-zone on earth? This edginess will make us both scramble to America. ’s biggest is that dependence on America distorted its civil society, strengthened its and irremediably warped its state structure."

Coming back to , after the initial period of Hindi-Bangladeshi Bhai Bhai ( friendship ), the relations have evolved from normal to indifferent and even frosty. The break up of and the role of its neighbours should be a pointer to what would happen in , this case being even more complicated. In spite of what did, is now blamed in for all its ills, from economic problems to floods and and order. with its history of , tortures at Abu Gharaib and savage attacks on Fallujah, Najaf, Samarrah and other cities, would leave behind an embittered Iraqi generation, when it is finally forced to quit along with its Iraqi exile collaborators.

Shiite steps towards autonomy

In a move fraught with far reaching ramifications for the unity of and the region , about 600 representatives from ’s Shiite central provinces of Najaf, Karbala, Babel, Qadissiyah and Muthanna, decided in Najaf, the city with the shrine of first Shiite Imam Ali, to take steps towards an autonomous Shiite region. ’s provisional does recognise a federal structure for , with its Kurds, mostly Sunnis, already enjoying autonomy in 3 northern provinces since the end of 1991 Gulf under US protection. Kurds are insistent on maintaining and expanding their autonomy.

The Najaf conclave also backed the Shiite leadership demand led by Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani that for 30 January be held as scheduled and rejected largely by Sunni supported calls to delay them. Many observers, starting with UN representative Lakhdar Brahimi advising on , are veering round to the conclusion that in view of a raging insurgency and virulent unrest, it might not be possible to hold fair or even desirable from the point of legitimacy, in case the Sunnis do boycott the polls.

And might end up creating a Shiite state out of a united , which incidentally was put together from the Ottoman Vilayats ( provinces ) of Baghdad, Basra and Mosul, by colonial power, Great Britain, much against the wishes of its people. The reasons for occupying remain the same. It was for the security of British empire and oil potential in 1920s, and now it is for the strategic control of the region by US bases in , with its resources financing it; this was thought in Washington before the invasion. The province of Mosul was occupied by the British after a truce following the first world owing to its oil potential. And the Turks, who under Kemal Ataturk forged a secular republic from the ashes of the Ottoman empire of the Caliphs have not really relinquished their claims over Mosul and Kirkuk in north Kurdish .

The possibility of breaking up as an inevitable outcome have been aired in the world by many commentators, experts and think tanks. In an article in New Yorker magazine earlier this year veteran US journalist Seymour Hersh wrote about Israel interfering in north Kurdish and providing training to peshmarga militias and running covert operations in neighboring countries ( Iran) that revealed the brewing differences between friends, Israel and Turkey, and the latter’s public criticism of the former. Israelis felt that the US against the Iraqi insurgency was floundering and argued that US was "not going to get it right in . Shouldn’t they be planning for the worst-case scenario and how to deal with it?"

Ehud Barak, the former Israeli Prime Minister, who supported the Bush Administration’s invasion of , took it upon himself to privately warn Vice-President Dick Cheney that America had lost in . According to an American close to Barak, he said that Israel "had learned that there’s no way to win an ." The only issue, Barak told Cheney, "was choosing the size of your humiliation." Cheney reportedly did not respond to Barak’s assessment.

Fallujah II:

US attack on a defiant Fallujah in November –December, which had beaten back US attacks to control and ‘pacify ‘it in April, would go down as a major dark chapter and marker in the history of and the Middle East showing the US occupying forces had decimated the city like the Mongol hordes, with US in particular and western in general remaining silent except for some courageous voices. But a far reaching development has been a clear emergence of sectional schism between the Arabs; Shiites ( 60% ) and Sunnis ( 20%). was founded in the past as a protected state after pacification with equally brutal use of British power, with the bombing of tribals and denial of water and other aid to Najaf and other cities which refused to accept the British colonial yoke. But for the non-corporate specially Al Jazeera and a few others, the sufferings of the hapless Iraqis would have been remained unknown. Instead of the much heralded US pretense of promoting in with their " operation Iraqi freedom", the gory perversity now unfolding has been well documented in the non-corporate .

When Fallujah was attacked by US forces in April, the Shiites had sent , medicines and other help to the fighters and victims of Fallujah. These gestures were reciprocated when the fiery young Shiite cleric Moqtda as Sadr was locked in battle with the US might of F16s, Apache helicopters, heavy artillery guns and most modern tanks ranged against guns and rockets of Sadr followers and when willing martyrs holed up in Imam Ali’s holy shrine. This time the US appointed Iraqi refused medical and other help to the civilians, with hundreds of thousands becoming refugees in their own country.

With Shiites determined to make US forces conduct some kind of , to obtain power for the first time since centuries and the Sunnis opposing the politically and with violence and, the Kurds in the north going their own way to expand their autonomy, there are no signs that a united Iraqi national has emerged yet, as it did in Vietnam, Algeria and in Turkey under Kemal Ataturk after the first world . has only succeeded in dividing the Iraqi people of Mesopotamia as had the British the Ottoman subjects of different ethnicities and religious persuasion during the first world . But while making promises of independence to the Arabs they laid the foundation for a Euro-cultural Israel in Palestine. The Shiites must remember that sovereignty is won by force of arms and sacrifice, and not as a Bakhseesh (gift ), certainly not from .

Reactions to Forced and Break Up of

UN election adviser Lakhdar Brahimi recently told a Dutch newspaper that " are no potion, but part of a political process. They must be prepared well and take place at the right time to produce the good effects that you expect from them. " When questioned if under present circumstances were possible, Brahimi said, "If the circumstances stay as they are, I personally don’t think so. It is a mess in ."

While the insurgents in have upped their violent activities and assaults outside the Sunni areas too, the Sunni politicians have repeatedly called for the postponement of the polls while the Shiite leaders claimed that a postponement would be a victory for the insurgents.

Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, Head of the Supreme Council for the Islamic ( SCIRI), said that the calls to delay the be rejected. "’This would mean the terrorists have been able to achieve one of their main objectives; that there be no and that a suitable political process does not start,’ he said. ’We will insist on the necessity of holding and that a delay will not be in the interests of the Iraqi people.’" Earlier, 42 mainly Shiite and Turkmen parties issued a statement calling the moves to delay the as illegal. Yes the UN resolution does call for the to be held by 30 January. But the UN can be approached again!

A one time foreign minister Adnan Pachachi, a Sunni and once a US favourite to be ’s interim President and who now heads a group of 17 , has called for a delay of six months. He said that ’It is unthinkable that a large and important section of Iraqi society be left out of the political process. Security has to improve to enable people to vote without fear, with full security and without intimidation or pressure.’

Ghazi al-Yawar, the interim Iraqi president and a prominent Sunni tribal leader, who has many times decried US attacks on Iraqi cities strongly opposed the US annihilation of Fallujah. He said that its effect could prove fatal to the hopes for his community’s participation in the democratic process. He was invited to the White House, where he naturally sang a different tune. In an interview with CNN, he criticised those who are now opposed to including the Russian president Vladimir Putin and highlighted Syria’s adverse role in . But he also appeared very keen to serve the Iraqi people. ’s interim Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih accused ’s Sunni Muslim neighbours of "playing a direct role in killing Iraqi people."

Stung to the quick, Jordan’s King Abdallah II told the Washington Post that Iran would largely be to blame if turned out to be a sham. He added that more than 1 million Iranians had crossed the border into , many to vote, and they were being encouraged by the Iranian . He also reportedly accused the Iranians of paying salaries and providing welfare to unemployed Iraqis to promote pro-Iranian public sentiment.

Javier Solana, the Europe Union’s (EU) foreign head, openly questioned whether the would indeed be able to go ahead on schedule, and said that Iraqi Premier Iyad Allawi was not giving a correct picture of the situation. The latest to join the chorus of opponents of January polls is President Putin, much enraged by US led EU interference in Ukraine , which he considers more vital than " near abroad" like Georgia. Putin told visiting Iraqi Premier Allawi in Moscow on Tuesday that he could not "imagine how could be organised under a full of the country by foreign troops". "I also cannot imagine how you on your own will be able to restore the situation in the country and stop it from breaking up," he added.

Why Shiites are Wary of US

While wondering why the Shiites were not fighting along with US forces, the hawk US journalist Charles Krauthammer answers, " In 1991 the Shias were begging the US to intervene during their uprising against Saddam. They were dying, literally, for the American army to help them. Unfortunately - and this misfortune haunts us to this day - they were betrayed. Having encouraged the Shias to rebel, we did not lift a finger as Saddam slaughtered them by the thousands." The Shiites mostly dominated and abused by others have developed the doctrine of Taqqiya ( dissimulation ) ie not telling the truth under duress. With a weak hand, they are perhaps hoping to maneuver themselves into a position, when both the Iraqi Sunni insurgents and US forces are exhausted in this asymmetrical with some help, overt and covert, from next door neighbour Shiite Iranians.

Of course ’s neighbours, who are monitoring the situation through regular meetings but without much leverage to do anything , watch the deteriorating situation warily. Turkey remains most perturbed, with its experience of going whole hog with in 1990-91 , when it lost heavily economically and landed with a heightened PKK Kurdish rebellion in south east Turkey. Statements by US neo-cons threatening to " take care of Syria or Iran" send jitters down its spine. It is also much upset by Israeli fishing in north . Syria at the receiving end of US threats has moved closer to Turkey, perhaps for first time since its creation out of the Ottoman empire. For Damascus it is a matter of survival. Curiously, Damascus has been ruled for decades by Assads who are Shiite Alawites, a more radical branch ; they constitute 12% of Syria’s mostly Sunni , but side with the Sunnis.

With a Shiite Arab state splitting out of , which will naturally gravitate towards Iran, the whole sectional and strategic balance in and around the Gulf region would be in turmoil. Saudi Arabia is sitting on a volcano after half a century of encouraging fundamentalism all around the world including its neighbours, while believing that it could escape it at home. Its disclaimers that it has eliminated the last Al Qaeda cell, after every terrorist attack within its territory, is not taken seriously by any one now. In 1979, it needed French special security forces to control the situation, when Kabba was taken over by the fanatics. A highly secretive society, Saudi armed and security forces appear to be infected with the seeds of Wahabbism. Like , would it become a front line state against , a problem trying to be a solution.

But Saudi opposition to January and possible emergence of a Shiite dominated or a Shiite state in south is quite evident from a comment. Saudi Gazette editorial of December 6, quoting Gen John Abizaid’s view that Iraqi forces did not have enough training or experience, endorsed postponement of the . It concluded that "US forces in Baghdad are bunkered down inside the Green Zone... If coalition control is so restricted, what real prospects are there for holding ... next month?... Washington’s... reluctance to make the kind of commitment that might have brought social stability has been missing from the outset. It is difficult to believe that a few thousand extra US troops will make much difference now."

Next door Sunni Sheikhdoms, some with large Shiite populations are equally worried. Mohammed al-Obaidi, wrote on 5 December in the popular Arab website Aljazeera.net, that "Forty-seven Iraqi [have] made the decision to boycott the coming election. The People’s Struggle Movement (Al-Kifah al-Shabi), which I represent, was one of those groups... The main purpose of the election process is to secure a that will facilitate long-lasting agreements with the US to keep its forces on Iraqi soil and transform the country into an American colony."

Naturally Iran would be happy if the were conducted as scheduled. Hassan Hanizadeh writing in Tehran Times of December 6 said that, "Many of the moderate Sunni have announced their willingness to take part in a free election...Even if the poll is boycotted by 10% of the people, a fair election could still be held since it is the participation of the majority that guarantees the fairness of an election... Holding a free and fair general election is the only way to resolve the crisis and stabilise the country, and Iraqi officials should do their best to make sure the poll is held on schedule."

Elsewhere , New York Times Editorial of the same date recommends that "The most promising solution would be to encourage Sunni moderates and Kurds to put their misgivings about a January vote directly to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the widely respected leader of the Shia community. In the past, Ayatollah Sistani has shown himself capable of recognising the broader national interest in and legitimacy. Negotiating a consensus Iraqi agreement on the voting date would do more to advance those interests than sticking to an arbitrary timetable that threatens to produce a dangerously flawed vote."

An editorial in London’s "Independent’ of the same day enumerated who was against and who was for and recommended that the occupying forces must ensure that the were held on time and even praised Bush, "perhaps the most ardent public advocate is ... This is one time when the US president’s lack of self- must be accounted an asset"

Chaos in , Leaked CIA Report

But as a result of virulent insurgent attacks against Iraqi police, security and national guards in which hundreds have been killed like sitting ducks, many desert the posts when faced with the crunch. Others join the insurgents. A large number stay home. The US agency (CIA) officials privately agree that efforts to train local Iraqi security forces were not keeping pace with the growth of an increasingly violent insurgency. So far, the official strength of the Iraqi security forces is put at 83,000 although only 47,000 have been fully armed and trained. The new Iraqi must also expect a heightened level of violence if the were boycotted by the Sunni minority.

The debate in favour of holding was torpedoed by a leaked report by the departing CIA station head, who completed his yearly tenure in Baghdad end of the last month. According to New York Times of 7 December, the report "warned that would descend even deeper into violent chaos unless the was able to assert its authority and deliver concrete economic improvements. " This bleak assessment was echoed by a similar assessment from another CIA officer, Michael Kostiw, who is a senior aide to the recently appointed CIA boss Porter Goss. But this analysis has been questioned by the hawkish US ambassador to Baghdad, John Negroponte, who has argued that the US had made considerable progress in controlling the insurgency. Negroponte is a veteran of handling insurgencies in Latin America, but is a different ball game.

This assessment is similar to several warnings from officials in Washington and Baghdad. An intelligence estimate prepared for the White House in August had said that "’s security situation could remain tenuous at best until the end of 2005, and warned that the country was at risk of civil ."

Conclusion

After the illegal invasion on August 2, 1990 and of Kuwait by Saddam Hussein and massing of US led coalition troops against , with most Muslim countries, excepting a few like Yemen, Jordan, Sudan and PLO, lining up for some consideration or the other apart from legal one i.e. strategic, tactical or financial gains, there was a night mare scenario for the coalition. What if Saddam Hussein agreed to withdraw his troops from Kuwait. It would have been then difficult to maintain the coalition, at least most of the Muslim part. It was reported that when as part of a charade, because the US decision on on was already taken, UNSG Perez de Cuellar went to Baghdad, Saddam Hussein asked him up to where he should withdraw his troops from Kuwait. But this offer was lost in the western cacophony and drums of in Washington and London.

There is now another nightmare scenario, for the UN and its supporters, which includes most countries except and a few of its allies. What if agreed to handover to UN, lock stock and barrel. It is unlikely that even then a quick and peaceful, just and satisfactory solution can be reached. By attacking UN offices in Baghdad in August, 2003, the Iraqi expressed its hatred for the body, whose sanctions for a decade led to of over quarter million . But it would be better than the emerging worst case solution of break up of into 2 or three states.

Or would a nationalistic finally emerge in , after a really bloody of independence. In January the author ( Paper no 885 ,7 January, 2004-IRAQI & FOR INDEPENDENCE: CASE STUDIES OF ALGERIA & TURKEY ) citing national and wars of independence in Algeria and Turkey had suggested that the evolution of in could develop along similar lines, at a time when all fighters were ( and still are ) referred to in western as dead enders, dregs of Ba’athist regime, thugs and criminals. It appears that so far a united, national and secular in has failed to emerge.

But like Pakistani did not allow a Bengali to become the Prime Minister of , ’s Sunni leadership, with enough funds and experienced and trained men at its command is not going to give up its long established right of being the ruling establishment. Shiite leadership might decide to go its own way, now or at some later stage, with or without election, and declare full autonomy and even independence, with wanting it out of . But it is the historical forces which have been let loose in the region which would decide the course of events and not the neo-cons challenged by their lack of knowledge of history, and religious passions and movements that rule this region, but who dream in their isolated plush offices or think tanks of imposing US domination by sheer brutal power.