Rice was no Turkish Delight

Gajendra Singh
Feb 15, 2005
Iraqi Kurds Flex Muscles

On February 13, soon after the announcement of provisional results of 30 January for ’s new Parliament, Turkey said that the results failed to ensure a fair representation for all ethnic groups and called for measures to compensate for flaws and irregularities in the electoral process.

The Kurdish alliance of Kurdish Democratic party (KDP) and the rival Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) won over 25% of the vote , giving it a kingmaker’s role . It has already suggested 72 year old Jalal Talbani ,PUK leader , for the President’s post .The alliance is likely to join with the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) , which is supported by the religious establishment and won over 47% of the votes. Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s slate got 14% votes, while the slate of President Ghazi Yawar, a Sunni managed only 2%. Of the 8.5 million registered voters , nearly 58% voted . Sunnis, who make up about 20 percent of ’s 27 million people mostly abstained with only 2% voting in Anbar and 29% in Salahadin , the Sunni provinces .

International Herald Tribune recently said that the President’s office has enormous power in appointing the , including the Prime Minister . It “ would bolster the standing of Kurds in the Middle East, where the governments of Turkey, Syria and Iran are fearful of any moves toward independence by minority Kurd populations in their own countries. The ambitions of the Kurds will likely be opposed by politicians seeking to install a Sunni Arab as president in order to draw the former governing Sunnis into the political process, despite their widespread boycott of the .”

A Turkish Foreign Ministry statement said that "The low turnout of some groups in the , the fact that almost no votes were cast in a number of provinces and the fact that manipulations in certain regions, including Kirkuk, led to unbalanced results are issues that need to be considered seriously." It added that because of this there was lopsided representation of ethnic and religious groups in the new parliament, which will also prepare a new for .

"It is seen as absolutely essential for the safety of the political process in to compensate for the unbalanced representation in the country’s administration. It has become clear that certain elements in tried to manipulate votes in this historic process and have obtained unjustified gains from this," the Turkish statement added. Ankara expected Iraqi authorities to properly examine complaints filed over the and look into claims of irregularities , concluded the statement .


Shadow of on Condoleezza Rice visit

During the whirlwind tour of the newly sworn in US Secretary of State Ms Condoleezza Rice , of eight countries , as well as Israel and Palestine sandwiched halfway, her talks with ’s now recalcitrant ally Turkey on 5/6 February were very important. But the shadow of hung over the visit . Like leaders else where, in Ankara too , the hosts , used to being lectured at by the top leadership of US administration were expecting some fresh approach , but in general , how ever erudite Ms Rice might appear , it was the same US agenda which was marketed , but in a less abrasive way.

Tensions between the United States and Turkey persisted, especially on ’s future. "It was very candid, very positive," a Turkish diplomat said artfully of talks between Rice and Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul. "There was good personal chemistry."

While Ankara welcomed Rice’s statement that like Turkey, was opposed to the breakup of , , the Turks remain skeptical .Washington has not kept its promises to Ankara in the past .So many political analysts , including the author believe, that serious differences remain.
"It is pure wishful thinking to say things have been patched up with Rice’s visit. It will take more than a few visits to get this relationship back on track," said Suat Kiniklioglu of the Ankara Center for Turkish Studies.

Ms Rice met with President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Gul, Both before and after ’s , Erdogan has repeatedly criticized for not taking action, despite promises ,against Turkish Kurdish guerrillas (PKK) in northern , nor curbing the Iraqi Kurds , who are threatening to take over multi-ethnic oil rich city of Kirkuk and then declare independence .The North Iraqi Kurdish leaders have matched their words with action on the ground.

After his talks with Rice, Gul said that Ankara’s main concerns had been conveyed. Stressing that Turkey and US were longtime allies on the basis of not only cooperation, but also political, cultural and commercial ties, Gul said they would continue to work together in the future to resolve certain issues.

Later Gul warned that Ankara would not stand by if Kurds seized Kirkuk, suggesting Turkish intervention, which has been publicly discussed by politicians and Turkish armed forces .While an intervention is in the future , it added further tensions in the relationship.

During the public debate on US request for use of Turkish territory to attack in March 2003, President Sezer, a former head of the Constitutional Court had opposed this illegal action. The Parliament in spite of it being the motion voted it down .It was at its finest , but derided it then and still does so, while making noises about liberty , and , even citing democratic Turkey as an example to the Muslim world .

Ms Rice tried to assuage Turkey’s fears over ’s unity, Kirkuk and the PKK and said at a press conference “I reiterated . . . the commitment of the US to a unified , to an at with its neighbors and an in which all Iraqis, regardless of ethnic or religious background . . . feel welcome and respected,” .About Kirkuk, she observed that it was for all Iraqis to agree on its future status. “What terrorist groups such as al Qaeda and the PKK have been doing cannot be accepted in the modern world,” On PKK terrorists in northern , she said that the US had cut the financial resources of the group. She acknowledged differences, but said that both should work together to dispel them. “There could be differences between friends. But what is important is to remember we are still friends.”

But Turkish commentators went hammer and tong on with some even visiting all past grievances .Gündüz Aktan wrote in influential Turkish Daily News that” Our relationship with the United States is heading for a highly serious crisis. The leading crisis with this country that was the backbone of our defense throughout the Cold occurred in 1964 with the Johnson letter “( which forbade Turkey use of US arms against Greece or Cyprus ).He recalled how did not stop Greek Cypriots from attacking Turkish Cypriots and later in 1974 when Greek Cypriots declared Enosis ie union with Greece it tried to prevent Turkey from intervening ( The Turks did invade the island and have stayed
put ). imposed an arms embargo on Turkey .”

“This time around, the United States which is currently in , condones the violation of the Turkmen ( ethnic cousins of Turks) , especially in Kirkuk. Moreover, it gives the impression that it is actually ensuring that Turkmens will be under-represented in ’s new political restructuring.‘
He added that ”the United States failed to stem the disproportionate weight the Kurdish groups had in the transition . Nor does it do anything to control their dangerous ambition for independence. It allows them to broaden further the ground of the independence they have gained over the past decade, and to preserve for the process of making the veto and the independence option it has given them under the Transitional Administration .

“In order to incorporate Kirkuk that it considers sine qua non for its independence-- in its lands, the Kurdish entity first burned the and land registers in Kirkuk. Then it committed the act of ‘transfer of its own to the occupied land,’ an act that is deemed a crime according to Article 8, Paragraph 2 (b) (viii) of the International Criminal Court’s Rome Statute. As a result, the in Kirkuk became disputable. “

Cuneyt Ulsever wrote in Hurriyet that US did not directly react to Turkey’s demands concerning the terrorist PKK and Kirkuk in northern . --When Washington talks about ‘fighting ,’ Ankara should understand that this mainly refers to Iran and Syria’s support for , as well as Al Qaeda and Palestinian terrorist groups. (This means that although the US recognizes the PKK as a terrorist group, it won’t consider it a separate issue to deal with.) While US has no immediate plans to attack Iran the possibility remains on Bush’s agenda. There was no economic plan for the Turkish Cypriots. Washington remained annoyed at Ankara’s refusal to permit the deployment of American troops at Incirlik Airbase. ‘Turkey must back our radical Middle East ,’ Rice stressed succinctly, ‘Otherwise, there is no way for Ankara to ensure US support on the issues of northern , Kirkuk, Cyprus, EU and even the IMF,’ added Ulsever .He concluded ,”May help our in the years to come!”

Yilmaz Oztuna said that Rice’s visit was meant to put pressure on Syria and Iran to cease their support to terrorist groups and (Iran’s) quest to produce . “If these efforts don’t bear fruit, the US will start concrete action. Will Turkey hold up its end of the strategic alliance? The US will arrange its accordingly. If Ankara doesn’t support it, Washington will move closer to northern ’s Kurds as well as Armenia. The US is expecting understanding from such key Arab countries as Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Otherwise it will try to bring to them, as they seem unable to do so on their own.”

The nationalists pointed to opinion polls which show Turkey as one of the most anti-US countries, saying no democratic could ignore such views.

"As long as this situation continues, with the Kurds winning the upper hand in Kirkuk and pushing for an independent Kurdistan, it will hurt Turkey more and more ... We cannot go on like this," said Hasan Unal of Ankara’s Bilkent University. He said Turkey should consider suspending all logistical support for the Americans in and threaten to pull its peacekeeping troops out of . It should also deny U.S. forces (limited) use of Turkey’s Incirlik airbase, he said.


US Ambassador assuages Turkish feelings

To assuage Turkish feelings , US ambassador Edelman told the on 8 February that the views of the public get shaped by many factors. ’’One of the reasons for the recent anti-American sentiments in Turkey has to do with ,’’ But things were now getting better. In the past six weeks, there were many contacts between Turkish and American officials topped by the visit of Ms Rice . Asked about Kirkuk, Edelman replied that the U.S. wished to preserve ’s territorial integrity. ’’The Iraqi people will decide on Kirkuk through a compromise’’ he said.

Reminded of recent comments of U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld on Turkey’s negative decision on U.S. troops in 2003, Edelman stated that the Turkish Parliament’s decision caused disappointment in the United States. ’’Nevertheless, the U.S. is not interested with the past. We look at the future,’’ added Edelman.

Edelman assured that the U.S. was not trying to punish Turkey. ’’Had the U.S. carried such feelings, it would not have been possible to support Turkish relations with the IMF and EU. Furthermore, it would not have been possible to act hand-in-hand with Turkey on the issues such as Middle East and Cyprus,’’ noted Edelman. ’’The U.S. does not have a of revenge’’ he affirmed.

On Iran, Edelman replied that ’’The U.S. has not made any demand from Turkey on Iran. We look at Iran’s nuclear activities as a possible problem for the region.’’ If Tehran cooperates, the subject of Iran would be resolved through diplomatic means. On PKK, Edelman said that the U.S. faced a tough security situation in . ’’Yet such a situation does not imply that we will not fulfill our promises’’ he added.


Rice meets Russian Foreign minister in Ankara

An important side event was the meeting of Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov with Ms Rice in Ankara, Lavrov confirmed that the state of in Russia was discussed, but President Putin would respond to all questions at the Bratislava summit, on 26 February. He added that all differences in the U.S.-Russian relations should be "frankly discussed." (bluntly , in diplomatic parlance) Lavrov confirmed that he discussed summit’s agenda with Rice, which is likely to cover Iran’s nuclear program, Russia’s relations with Ukraine and Georgia, the Yukos affair, and U.S.-Russia cooperation in the sector. Lavrov said that another subject could be joint global rescue operations, in the wake of 26 December tsunami disasters in the Indian Ocean. "Only the United States and Russia have the long-distance air that can reach any corner of the world and can be used for joint operations during emergencies." He also confirmed that President Bush would visit Moscow in May for 60th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World II.


Turkey Protests

At a press conference with the visiting Foreign Minister Abdelbaki Hermassi of Tunisia , Abdullah Gul said on 8 Feb that ’’Iraqi Kurds should learn their lessons from the past,’’ while answering a question about recent statement of Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leader Massoud Barzani that , ’’any power or state in the world cannot cause me to give up Kirkuk’’. Gul added, ’’Turkey is not a country which is involved in battles of word with the others. Wrongful leaderships, imaginary projects, irrational actions and rhetoric slogans gave rise to serious troubles in the Middle East and especially in . Iraqi people have suffered most from it. Now, they should learn their lessons from the past.’’ ’’In fact, all Iraqi people including Arabs, Kurds and Turks should concentrate their on creating an atmosphere of and stability. Any other actions will damage Iraqi people and their region,’’ he added.

Gul stressed, ’’Turkey recommends that Iraqi people forget this dark period and difficulties, and focus on the future. We are ready to assist Iraqi people to this end. In the past, many massacres and problems were prevented as a result of Turkey’s initiatives. Now, Turkey wants to set up peaceful and friendly relations with its neighbors.’’ ’’My advice to all politicians in is that no one can reach anywhere by rhetoric. After the the political process has accelerated (in ). Now, a new will be prepared, and a new will be formed. They should concentrate on future of their country,’’ Gul concluded.

On 8 February Foreign Ministry spokesman Namik Tan spoke to the on the lines of the 13 February statement. "It is a fact that some irregularities occurred in the ... We also regret that the participation of some groups was not at the desired level. We believe the election results will fail to reflect in parliament the true representation proportions," Tan said.

"It is important to prove to the Iraqis and the international community that one cannot reach anywhere by way of unlawfulness," Tan said. "We believe this carries a great importance for ’s future." "Therefore, certain measures will be necessary so that the Iraqis are able to have a properly functioning in the period ahead of us."


Arabs and Turkmens protest

On 11 February hundreds of Arabs and Turkmens took to the streets in Kirkuk, protesting that last month’s election were riddled with fraud and demanded a re-run. "No , no to federalism! No, no to fraud!", chanted the demonstrators, in the city centre who then marched past the offices of the two main Kurdish parties.

A statement distributed to the protesters and signed by 16 Arab and Turkmen groups including Ankara supported Iraqi Turkmen Front, the Shiite religious party Dawa, and the movement of Shiite radical leader Moqtada Sadr, said ,"There are documents and plenty of evidence showing that fraud took place during the in Kirkuk." "We ask for new to be held in Kirkuk to guarantee they are transparent, because Kirkuk is on the edge of a flaming pit." Sunni and Shiite Arab parties had pulled out of the election in Tamim province , where Kirkuk is located as a protest against the authorities’ registration of non-resident Kurds whose families were reportedly forced out of the city under Arabisation program.


Kurds emerge as Kingmakers

’s new Parliament ie 275-member Transitional National Assembly (TNA) would elect from its members , Iraqi president and two vice-presidents, called the presidency council, by a two-thirds majority. The council would then appoint a prime minister and the cabinet. A majority vote would suffice for the new . The Assembly has to draft the by mid-August, hold a national referendum for approval within two months and then hold by the end of 2005.
Thus Shiites and Kurds with necessary 2/3rd majority in the TNA , if they could reach an agreement , can have a decisive role in the drafting a permanent .How it will happen is another question , with an exploding Sunni supported , Islamic leavened and a watchful Turkey in the north .

Because of boycott and fraud the Kurdish alliance also won two-thirds of the vote and the seats in Tamim provincial council in which Kirkuk is located. It could decide to join the Kurdistan region , which would lead to sectarian violence , with Ankara threatening to intervene .

The Kurds who have enjoyed autonomy under US umbrella since 1991 are the best organised of ’s communities , politically and militarily. Their key demand remains autonomy they enjoyed during the 1990s , also enshrined in the Transitional Administrative of March 2004. It also provides for a "the Kurdish veto", allowing two-thirds of the of any three governorates to block the . Of course it was not included in the UN resolution which gives cover to the US of . The Kurds want to expand autonomy into a federal state, with Kirkuk as the capital of the Kurdistan region.

Autonomy , veto and insistence on making a secular state ie the Kurdish position ,opposed by parties of the Shiite religious establishment which prefers a unitary structure and seminal role for , would be major hurdles in finalising a new and later the .
After discussions on 10 February for sharing of top posts with interim Prime Minister Allawi, Kurdish leader Barzani declared his opposition against any one of ’s ethnic and religious groups dominating the new . Allawi told reporters that his talks with Barzani were focused on "the consensus that all political groups must prepare for a democratic future which will see the participation of all categories in Iraqi society." But he would not comment if he supported Kurdish demands for either the presidency or the premiership in the new . "Any Iraqi has the right to be a candidate for such a post," he parried.


Talbani Barzani differences

In spite of a united front for the , there are inherent differences between historically warring KDP and PUK. After inter-factional fighting during 1990s, Iraqi Kurdistan remains effectively partitioned between them since 1994 . From 1994 to 1998, Talabani’s PUK and Barzani’s KDP fought a civil for control of the entire Iraqi Kurdistan. Before the conflict was over, each had invited the Saddam regime . While Talabani called in Saddam’s Kurdish supporters, Barzani invited the Iraqi army, forcing the PUK forces to flee the regional capital, Arbil. When US invaded , Talbani moved closer to with PUK forces fighting alongside US soldiers , forcing the Iraqi army out of Kirkuk. Today, the PUK is the most powerful force in the city.

During the , tensions resurfaced, because of the biggest prize, the leadership of the Kurdish region .They have traded accusations of irregularities in the for the Kurdistan National Assembly (in which all parties competed independently) also on Jan. 30, along with the Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) and the Kurdistan Independent Democratic Solution Party. An unofficial referendum showed majority of Kurds want an independent Kurdistan.

The two sides have agreed to nominate 72-year-old Talabani as their candidate for the presidency of . Barzani hopes to head the administration in Kurdistan. This time they appear united in negotiations with Baghdad and local rivalries remain submerged .But both parties are basically tribal in thinking and instinct and the level of trust between them would always remain, at best, tenuous.


Conclusion

The organized on proportional basis with as a single constituency have strengthened parties formed on lines at the expense of secular and smaller parties and individuals. A very low turnout in Sunni Arab areas, high turnout in Kurdish areas, addition of new Kurdish voters following a ruling by the Electoral Commission allowing 72,000 returnee Kurds to vote in Kirkuk’s election, has not only distorted the results but cast doubts on the legitimacy of the which are to lay the foundations of the new state and its .It was as if the occupying forces wanted to punish the Sunnis , erstwhile rulers since centuries and hence supporters of the rising insurgency .With Moqta as Sadr also not likely to accept the results and demand ouster of US troops , the new and the forces would have its hands full .

Even under US umbrella and prodding the Kurds were unable to establish a working Parliament or a common administration for Kurdistan .Now with Shiites following the dictates of Ali Sistani , the chances of democratic give and take would not come easily .One might see the kind of political turmoil and brinkmanship as in Damascus after the collapse of the Ottoman armies and arrival of Emir Feisal’s supporters in the film ‘Lawrence of Arabia ‘.

British troops had ‘liberated’ the Arab lands , but they had their agenda , as does which’ liberated’ –its oil and strategic control of the region. The Shiites have got a dominant role by virtue of US guns , tanks , helicopters and F-16s .It is not an organic political evolution . The continuing Sunni Arab insurgency , which is a national aimed principally against the US imposed institutions and the new Iraqi could provoke a Shiite backlash and lead to a civil .

US forgets that Indian troops left as soon was
restored ,still the new state was hardly grateful. Nor would the Shiites , if exiles were imposed as rulers and US troops stayed put. The US has seen the underground Shiite organization in spite of decades of Sunni dominated secular regime. Soon after the toppling of Saddam statue in March 2003, US special forces had encouraged Shiites to take revenge against Baathists . US and British special forces remain active in making for a violent brew. What if Shiites followers of Moqtda as Sadr also turned on the forces . The author believes that has created enough conditions for factional fighting among Kurds, Arabs and Turkomens in the north .Already Sunnis are attacking Shiite targets in South.

US led western , mostly reporting from the safety of their secure hotel rooms in Baghdad , puts such a positive spin on the reality that it would have shamed even old communist . In his “WONDER LAND” column in Wall Street Journal, Daniel Henninger wrote on 11 February that “ Give ’s Voters The Nobel Prize For “ He explains that ,” They have already won the world’s prize by demonstrating in a single day a commitment not seen in our lifetime to , self-determination and human --the goals for which the Nobel Prize began in 1901.” It appears that many in US administration and most in its and who re-elected Bush prefer to stay in the ‘manufactured ‘ wonder land of US corporate .