Encircling Iran by maintaining its military presence in five of the seven countries sharing borders with Iran, the US seems to be working overtime to neutralize Iran’s ‘nuclear triangle’ so that the effects of possible aerial strikes on nuclear installations inside Iran are restricted and the aftermaths of such strikes don’t spiral out of proportion endangering the US-Israel interests in the region.

In the heat of incrimination, intimidation, and coercion, which has quite risen since Mr Bush’s visit to Europe, the US should not lose sight of certain facts that call for perceptive attitude towards the problem. There are three features of Iran’s nuclear triangle which so far seem to have stalled action in the theater and kept US-Israeli desperadoes in the war offices at bay albeit the war-mongers and pro-Israel lobby in the US has gone haywire bracketing Iran and Al-Qaeda together as well as branding Hezbullah in Lebanon as a terrorist group. Intriguingly the same lobbyists, behind the rhetorical façade, would do business with terrorist organizations such as Mujahideen Khalq and support their campaign for a regime change in Iran. The problem is that war mongers in State Department and Pentagon believe in “Every thing is fair in love and war” whereas, Islamic as well as any other society that is structured on humanitarian and just principles cannot and does not support such proposition. Firstly, there is Iran’s geo-strategic position which is a natural asset that cannot be ignored. Secondly, Iran has neighbours who cannot easily be won over although carrot may be too tempting whereas stick cannot work. Thirdly, it is Iran’s internal peace and stability that is the greatest asset to the nation. The very first consequence of any adventurism against Iran will be the obstruction of flow of oil through Persian Gulf. Once set in motion it will be beyond US potentialities to contain the conflagration and minimize its effect across the globe. In 1973 an Arab embargo sent oil prices soaring, and a global recession followed. In 1979 the Iranian revolution provoked a second surge in oil prices, and another global recession. The impact on oil prices and its flow during Desert Storm was offset by joint efforts and extensive preplanning on the part of great many nations. The US must understand that its partial success in Iraq so far has been due to Iran and Syria’s quiet and other surrounding countries’ active support; otherwise, it would still have been fighting in Iraq but not as an occupation force. World’s oil flow through Persian Gulf amounts to a substantial percentage that can affect most economies of the world. Considering the current price around $ 50 per barrel, the post-strike price whirlwind is anybody’s guess.

Secondly Iran’s neighbours, due to various reasons, are not very supportive of any US adventure against Iran. Although US has been working on them for a long time. Now it has active presence in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iraq. To surround Iran completely it has military bases in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Diego Garcia. Pakistan Government cannot afford to even extend any covert support to the US against Iran because of its domestic fall-out. Even though President Musharraf is being considered as a big ally in the US, at the moment of truth they will have a shock of their life. Although both are brotherly nations, the case with Iran is different from Afghanistan. In Afghanistan we sided with the US and presumably fought a battle against terrorism of which we also were the victim. However, in the case of Iran, it will be suicidal for any government in Pakistan to fight for Israel on behalf of the US.

Further, we need to tell the US policy-makers that we are an enlightened as well as moderate nation barring a few pockets of extreme elements which are to be found in any society, therefore, their agenda to bring a typical brand of societal structure and set up in Pakistan as well as in other countries of the region including Iran does not have any legitimacy and appeal to us. It is insulting our intelligence by rolling in the same age old policy of carrot and stick.

The Congressional allocation for FY2005 stands at $700 million; however, at the same time the Congress has enacted at least two laws (the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004, and the Foreign Operations FY 2005 appropriations bill) that can be called Pakistan-specific. Under Sec 232 of January 2005 act “The Targeting Terrorists more Effectively”, it is ordained, “Congress finds that Pakistan’s maintenance of a global missile and nuclear proliferation network would be inconsistent with Pakistan being considered an ally of the United States.” On 24 January 2005, the Targeting Terrorists More Effectively Act of 2005 was introduced in the US Senate. Under Sec 232, that includes, “Congress finds that Pakistan’s maintenance of a global missile and nuclear proliferation network would be inconsistent with Pakistan being considered an ally of the United States.”

It further says, “None of the funds appropriated for a fiscal year to provide military or economic assistance to the Government of Pakistan may be made available for such purpose unless the president submits to Congress for such fiscal year a certification that no military or economic assistance provided by the United States to the Government of Pakistan will be provided, either directly or indirectly, to a person that is opposing or undermining the efforts of the United States Government to halt the proliferation of nuclear weapons.” In case of our disagreements with the US over Iran we may have to say goodbye to this lurking bait. We need to tell the US State Department in unequivocal terms that we are their strategic partner against terrorism and nuclear non-proliferation because it is also our own fight but we are not their second grade stooges to follow their whims blindly. We know and it is crystal clear that Iran is not pursuing nuclear ambitions nor is it supporting or abetting terrorism. Talking to international media the other day Russian President Vladimir Putin said, “Russia is convinced that Iran has no intention of developing atomic weapons and will continue to cooperate with Tehran in the civilian nuclear sector… The latest steps on Iran’s behalf persuade us that Iran has no intention of building an atomic weapon...”

Thirdly, Iran’s internal security and stability is yet another factor which the US has to grapple with. The situation in Iran is entirely different from that of Iraq. It cannot win the war until it physically lands in Iran like Iraq and Afghanistan. The support it is getting is from violent and extremist Mujahideen Khalq who are supported by an acute minority in Iran. Otherwise the whole nation is united behind the Ayatollahs to defend their country against any attack. Recourse to aerial strikes has its own implications and the resultant conflagration will lead only to a bigger disaster for the whole region.

Consider US efforts for a regime change in Iran so far. Devoid of legitimacy, it has been pursuing this policy at the behest of Israel and has failed terribly so far. On nuclear issues, the US does not feel any direct threat. Mr. Bush made it clear why it is pursuing Iran on nuclear issue. Delivering a keynote address in Brussels on his arrival in Europe after his reelection on 21st Feb 2005 he said, “Considering what Ayatollahs have been saying about Israel, we can guess what they will do if they have got nuclear weapons.” It is not only oil the US is after, it also is Israel whose suzerainty it wants to impose on the region. Further, after Iraq, the world at large, due to credibility crisis, is also not tuning in to listen to Mr. Bush’s hyperbole against Iran’s nuclear programme, therefore, to create a coalition, even of the willing, against Iran is Herculean task which Mr. Bush cannot complete within his tenure in White House. For the next President, we can say, there is still some sense left in the world.
email: syedjaved14@yahoo.com