Gen. Musharraf Visits Delhi

Gajendra Singh
Apr 22, 2005
No Signs of Peace for War Mongers!

It all began with President Gen of coyly expressing a wish to see one of the matches in between the two countries in the just concluded series. Perhaps the General did not want to raise too many expectations from the discussions with Indian leaders he had on his mind. But the wish was expressed around the time had decided to supply F-16s to , which had caught the Indian establishment off guard. The Indian foreign ministry was caught flat footed by the General’s self invite but the Prime Minister’s office retrieved the situation. But it looks like the ping pong diplomacy between and in 1970s.

New strategic are evolving around the world following the collapse of the Soviet Union in end 1980s, and more recently after the US led illegal invasion of which has made the region topsy turvy. Even on the Indian sub-continent itself there is a marked change since the unprepared July, 2001 summit at Agra in between President Gen Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari , which ended in a fiasco.

In order to comprehend the outcome of Gen Musharraf’s 15-19 April visit to , it is also relevant to examine the events that have shaped Pakistani President Gen Musharraf’s world view, beginning with his formative school years in Turkey’s capital Ankara, where he imbibed the secular philosophy of Kemal Ataturk, and Turkish ‘s role in politics and its suitability for .

Unlike the Indian leadership, democratically elected with its constraints, Gen Musharraf has more power and space to shape the history of and the region, if he so wishes and if he can. But both sides must contend with role of and , and the internal of extremists in both the countries and the armed forces in .

A number of visits to by Pakistanis including by the mother and members of Gen Musharraf and others have brought home to Pakistanis that while was making vast economic strides, to with its ally level relationship with US led west, apart from enriching well entrenched extremist elements in army and bureaucracy, it has only brought the gun and drug culture.

Agra Fiascot and the Summit

The July, 2001, Agra summit took place before the 11 September attacks by Al Qaida trained hijackers, which has changed the entire international equation. , exaggerated the fear of in to get Bush re-elected and has promoted /industry corporate interests. After 11/9, needed and Gen Musharraf to attack the Taleban regime in , which had sheltered Osama bin Laden, and catch him as he was held responsible for the attacks. More than anything else was very wary of and worried about its nuclear bombs, with its lower ranks in security forces Islamised and allied and sympathetic with the Taleban and Al Qaida ideology and objectives.

Many top generals and most of the officers in ISI were involved in training of Jihadis and Al Qaida cadres to fight against Soviet Russian troops in . , other western nations, Saudi Arabia and many Muslim countries provided the funds and arms. Musharraf had little choice after 11/9 and agreed to make the frontline states in US fight against . If he had disagreed would have got some one else for the job. Unfortunately, with FBI and CIA operatives now swarming all over , it is now open to US inroads and mischief.

Musharraf has been lucky and a man of destiny and believes in it. Unlike Gen Aslam Beg, who vacillated like Hamlet between intervening or not, Musharraf became the first Mohajir President of after the Punjabis had got a strangle hold over power in Islamabd. Because of his Mohajir origins, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif appointed Musharraf, as the army chief after making General Jehangir Karmat to resign which humiliated. The Armed Forces. Later when he tried to foolishly replace Musharraf with his favourite as the Army Chief, the army establishment closed ranks and arrested Sharif.

Two days before the , the Washington Post had noted that "analysts said (that) Sharif has little idea how to restore confidence in a that has lost credibility at home and abroad - this deeply unpopular is facing its worst crisis since early 1997". A Gallup Poll taken a day after Musharraf seized power revealed that most Pakistanis wanted an unelected, interim of "clean technocrats" to rule for at least two years. In a cautious move, Musharraf created the post of Chief executive for himself but he was treated as pariah by the international community.

Since 11 September Musharraf has come a long way and has become a respected member of the same community led by in its fight against , but in his own calculated and calibrated way, thus making himself indispensable. His credentials are now impeccable .He was targeted twice in end 2003 by fundamentalists from which he barely escaped. has compensated amply by providing massive economic and assistance, including a recent decision to supply F-16s to , which it has been wanting for years.

In July 2001, Musharraf was not sure of complete support in the . However he cleverly used the opportunity of Agra Summit to anoint himself as the president of , much against the wishes of many of his senior generals who had helped him in to power. Some of them did not even attend the ceremony. He was not even sure if the incumbent President would resign and unlike all other ceremonies and occasions, it was not broadcast live. He removed some of the unreliable generals then and some others after 11/9. Most of the key posts in the Army are now occupied by his nominees!

Many Pakistanis, specially in the Armed Forces, a bastion of anti-Indian ideology, which it uses to remain in power, had doubts and suspicions because of his Mohajir origins. So he had to establish his credibility with the Pakistanis, Armed Forces and militants and people of Jammu and in Agra that he would not sell out on . Any compromise on would have been a blasphemy. Apart from lack of preparation, to expect that he could then make any concessions in Agra because of emperor like hospitality extended was a poor judgment specifically by the Indian , which gets very naive at times. He did try to bring a touch of realism by saying that in that case he would have to buy back the haveli (House) he was born in at that his father sold before migrating to in and stay behind in .He was naturally severe at breakfast with the Indian , which had high expectations.

In the last 5 years he has done well for and for himself. The rampant under Benazir Bhutto and her 10% consort Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif it is now much less. There might be individual complaints but the Pakistani is generally free. Its understanding of US objectives of unilateral and illegal invasion of for its oil and control the region for its resources is better than of the Indian . It also understands the US crusade and its anti Muslim policies .The people of Pakistani as well as the of Jammu and realize that solution of , as an independent state, or joining with after a plebiscite, which was long ago rejected by is no go. failed and can not take by force and wars. This was made clear when the international community led by Bill Clinton sided with following the 1999 attack on Kargil. It was an old Army plan and as a patriotic Pakistani, more so a Mohajir, Musharraf had carried it out. What about Nawaz Sharif, who was in the loop, but thought of garnering glory if it were successful.

Changes around the world

Pakistani leadership and people have also realised that they have gained little after being close allies of and West with a of hostility to . For all its problems and faults is now a well established and respected . During the last decade and a half it has made very remarkable economic progress , admired around the world. Pakistanis who have visited could see that or learn from reports in the as investors from US and elsewhere are attracted to the Indian . has also realised the important role of wealthy and now politically active Indian community in highlighted during the Kargil .. In contrast, being a Muslim country has seen its own being ill-treated and looked upon with suspicion.

There are dramatic changes in strategic relations all around the world. Turkey and Russia, enemies for over a millennia, are now coming together. Their economic relationship is blossoming and they exchange information even on security and . Even before the fall of the Berlin Wall, Turkey, in spite of being a NATO member, was buying natural gas from Russia. Despite US opposition it is trying to buy gas from Iran, another historical enemy, with whom also relations are improving. Relations between Turkey and Syria, once again foes almost since the two states emerged out of the ashes of the Ottoman Empire, have improved beyond recognition.

Despite US public disapproval the Turkish President Ahmet Sezer recently reciprocated the first ever visit of Syrian President Bashar Assad in January, 2004. They had similar core problems like annexation of Hatay province to Turkey on which Syria had claims and Syria’s complaints against Turkey for not giving it fair share of Euphrates River water. They almost went to in 1998 because Damascus was sheltering Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan whose rebellion against Turkey cost over 37,000 lives and brought economic ruin in Kurdish areas of Turkey .The situation is quite similar in Jammu and . Turkey and Syria have come together after the invasion on , which they had opposed .The two sides have put their bilateral problems on backburner.

Nearer home as an analyst put it, “building on the earlier initiatives of Rajiv and AB , the has now codified the elements of a boundary deal with . Under this agreement and have agreed to make “meaningful and mutually acceptable adjustments to their respective positions”. In other words, both sides have to make territorial concessions.” So with and trying to by pass the decades old contentious issue of the boundary, and have to be realistic.

Reaction in

Expectedly, opposition came from those who have built fortunes and acquired power in anti- policies encouraged by UK, and . Unsettled conditions in and in provinces adjoining give them an opportunity for wealth from opium cultivation and .

No wonder former ISI chief Hameed Gul, who made his name in training Jihadis to fight in and for whom militancy is good business said that the agreement would alienate the Kashmiris and bring in more bloodshed.

Gul accused of gradually moving away from its position of seeking a solution under the UN’s resolutions. He advised Musharraf to understand the Indian system, adding that there could be no forward movement on as long as it continues to be an integral part of under the Indian . He warned that the Americans could move a resolution in the UN on the third option — independent .

Gul refuses to see that and have bypassed similar problem in their border dispute which also has a resolution by the Parliament. And no one not even Americans now mention the obsolete UN resolutions after the Tashkent Declaration, Shimla Agreement and Kargil accord. The Soviet Union is gone and has an air base in Kyrgyzstan, next door to Xinjiang and in other Central Asian republics. It does not need that badly now. Since then a lot of water has flown under the Jhelum. Over 45,000 lives have been lost in the supported and west overlooked insurgency and in Jammu and .

Welcome by

Pakistani gave a near unanimous thumbs up to the visit, and its success in pushing forward the process. "A Successful Summit" said Dawn in its editorial, “unlike the disaster of the Agra summit.” "Significantly, the two leaders agreed that the process of normalisation was ’irreversible’ and addressing the issue of Jammu and agreed to continue these discussions "in a sincere, purposeful and forward-looking manner for a final settlement".

It cited the memory of the 1999 Kargil conflict and lack of any preparatory work for the fiasco at Agra while enthusiasm for better relations during matches gave the process popular legitimacy. But there was no room for complacency with powerful challenges ahead from the fanatics and chauvinists on both sides, “it will take courage and statesmanship on the part of the two governments to stick to the process, " it added.

The News, in its editorial titled "Permanent ", said: "The vocabulary of between and is expanding. Starting with a tentative ceasefire and a slow moving composite dialogue, the two countries have arrived at an ’irreversible ’ through a series of confidence-building measures’ and with unprecedented communication links through the borders, the two sides have come to realise the importance of building mutual trust and allowing people to mix across borders, especially in , more freely than what was possible till the recent past."

"From a potentially explosive build-up on each other’s borders only four years ago, they have come a very long way to creating a peaceful atmosphere where they are talking to each other “ with the need “that the two countries come up with some institutional arrangements to ensure that the talk of ’irreversible ’ does not remain empty rhetoric."

The Daily Times highlighted steps for cross-border and reviewing of potential benefits. It added that "the most important development is a tacit acceptance by that militant groups pose a threat to what is happening. Since these groups were part of ’s own on , and since they have shown their intention of disrupting the process by attacking the passengers of the first bus that rolled out of Srinagar on April 7, it is clear that will have to coordinate with in preventing such disruption from taking place in the future".

Sounding a jarring note ‘ The Nation ‘ said that the Pakistani leadership had succumbed to the pressure to proceed with the normalisation and put the core dispute of on the backburner." It concluded that" there is still time for our leaders to probe their hearts and consider the torture and agony Kashmiris have gone through. Their cause cannot be abandoned with impunity; for it constitutes equally our own cause."

Reaction of militants and Kashmiris

The militants in have most to lose and had attacked the passengers in Srinagar and the first bus from Indian to Pakistani and accused General Musharraf of “kneeling before ” “The person who is referred to as the hero of the Kargil has kneeled before . There is no precedent to such a meek surrender in the history of ,” said a faxed statement from new groups called ‘the Save Movement, Al-Nasreen, Al-Arifeen and Farzandan-e-Milat “. It vowed “We will continue our and will never deviate from it. We will take the ongoing struggle to its logical conclusion,” the group also targeted Hizb-ul Mujahideen chief Syed Salahuddin for approving the bus trips. It harped on the right of self-determination for the people of .

Generally, people in were all praise for Gen Musharraf for completing the unfinished Ajmer agenda and burying the ghost of the failed 2001 Agra summit. Said one “After waiting for many long years, there is some good news for us. and have decided to find through .” “It is wonderful that the two countries haven’t decided to keep under the carpet. has taken a bold step by accepting that there is a dispute and has agreed that solutions would emanate from sustained and structured discussions. We the same spirit prevails to resolve the issue to the satisfaction of the Kashmiri people whose destiny is sealed in the conflict,” said another. The traders were happy as they could send goods not only to but also to central Asian republics.

Reaction in

By and large Indians and welcomed the sudden developments emanating out of a visit to watch a match .Of course there is distrust built on Gen Musgarraf led attack on Kargil in 1999 soon after Indian Prime Minsiter Atal Bihari ‘s making bus journey to and formal acceptance of the creation of by visiting Minare . And there were many voices of caution too.

Compared to Agra, where he was severe on Indian , Gen Musharraf disarmed the Indian editors; again at a breakfast meeting, with a variation from an Indian film couplet main naya dil laya hoon “I have come with a new heart.” He took pains to contrast Agra with . “It was acrimony, it was hatred. We were angry at each other. We were killing each other. There were tensions.” And in ? “Now, there is friendship, there is harmony. We are talking . We are not angry. We are very happy. So it is totally different.”

Expectedly like the extremists in , its counter parts in , who have exploited for gains were far from happy .The Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) said that President Musharraf’s visit to would not help bilateral relations and encourage only Islamic forces. "Instead of improving Indo-Pak relations, the visit would provide impetus to the Islamic forces to spread their network within the country with an aim to destablise it," said VHP International President Ashok Singhal.

It was the rightist Likud leader Begin who made with Anwar Sadat of Egypt in 1979. So it was fortunate that it was Bhartiya Janata party (BJP) leader , who when Prime minister took steps, for which he was then pilloried, to start talks with Gen Musharraf thus outflanking any criticism from the Hindutva fanatics now. Gen Musharraf made up by visiting both , now out of power and BJP’s leader of opposition in the parliament LK Advani, known for his hardline views on . Both have been invited to visit .

US Reaction

At the beginning of the visit, while addressing the American Society of Newspaper Editors, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said that US was "very much impressed" with the "remarkable" progress in the Indo-Pak initiatives and offered all support from Washington.

She said that the US was not a mediator but of a supporter. "I would not call our role one of mediation --I think I would call it one of support." " and are building a relationship of rapprochement which we wish to support and which must be successful. We are supporting it on the basis of strong, independent ties with each of them," she said.

at home and abroad- Kemal Ataturk

We need not forget the mental make-up of Gen Musharraf because when he took over, ’s armed forces and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) were "Islamized" at the lower and middle levels, and even higher up, thus making for political instability.

Although he now does not mention it, but at his very first press conference after taking over as ’s chief executive on October 12, 1999, General Musharraf spotted some journalists from Turkey. Speaking in fluent Turkish, Musharraf told them he was a great admirer of Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Turkish Republic "As a model, Kemal Ataturk did a great deal for Turkey. I have his biography. We will see what I can do for ," added Gen Musharraf.

Not only is he more at home with Turkish than ’s national , Urdu, Musharraf also admires Turkey’s generals and its political model, having spent his most impressionable school years in the early 1950s in Ankara, where his father was posted as an attaché in the Embassy.

Ataturk’s legend of forging a new, vibrant, modern and secular Turkey out of the ashes of the decaying deadwood of the Ottoman Empire left an indelible mark on young Pervez, as some of his subsequent actions in show.

But ’s largest religious party, the Jamaat-i-Islami immediately had expressed its opposition to the secular ideology of Kemalism .He now highlights the aborted vision for of Qaid-e-Azam Mohammed Ali , the country’s founding father.

When questioned by in Istanbul in January, 2004 he said that Turkey’s model did not work in . “ We may take some lessons from Turkey, but we adopt these lessons to our own conditions." But Gen Musharraf has copied many steps taken by another Turkish General, General Kenan Evren, who had carried out the 1980 take over in Turkey after irresponsible behaviour by its politicians.

Gen Musharraf has successfully institutionalized the role of the armed forces in top decision making by having the National Security Council (NSC) legalized against much political opposition. He created the NSC on the Turkish model soon after overthrowing Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in October, 1999 .The brass has a dominance presence in NSC.

Gen Musharraf had promised to step down as the army chief by end 2004 after a deal with the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) Islamic alliance of religious parties in order to remain as the President until 2007. The deal was sealed by a constitutional amendment, ending a standoff with the opposition that had virtually paralyzed parliament after the October 2002 . But he has refused to give up the post of the chief of army staff.

But Musharraf can be said to have succeeded in emulating his publicly undeclared role model, Gen Evren, who had debarred and jailed top politicians, and remained head of state for nine years. Musharraf had tried to meet him when he turned up in Ankara in November, 1999 soon after his own takeover, but could not do so. Gen Musharraf successfully exiled two former Prime Ministers with political base in politics. Nawaz Sharif was shunted out to Saudi Arabia and Benazir Bhutto shuttles between Dubai and London and dare not return home. Her consort was imprisoned on charges for 8 years and was recently freed on bail.

Perhaps Musharraf now feels that the opportunity to fight against the virus of fundamentalism, and usher in a new era in and reforms, has come. And he must have abroad to have at home to build . His idol Ataturk had boldly and ruthlessly carried out "Westernizing" and modernizing reforms against religious obscurantism and dogma, and forged the remnants of the Ottoman Empire with a 99 percent Muslim into a secular republic in the 1920s after abolishing the offices of the Sultan and the Caliph.

For this Ataturk had kept his external ambitions in check. He did not claim former Ottoman provinces lost in World I, and even gave up claims on oil rich Kirkuk and Mosul now in north , which the British had occupied after the truce. Does Gen Musharraf intend to concentrate on building up a new like his childhood idol?