Iranian Puzzle

Jun 27, 2005

The recent landslide victory in Iran is the latest high profile story to hit the international political scene. Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, driving out the much hyped Rafsanjani turned out to be embarrassing for the western channels, all of which made Rafsanjani out to be some sort of balancing act that the rest of the world needed in order to co-exist peacefully and free from a potential nuclear conflict. It is debatable how much Rafsanjani would have been able to influence the Shura council in pleasing the west but the Americans were certainly convinced of his abilities.

The real issue here is the fact that more than 60% of Iranians turned up to vote and treated the very seriously and the fact that they brought Ahmedinejad to power should also be treated very seriously. The Iranian nation historically has proved to be a strongly nationalist entity and their drawn out with , the and dealing with a hostile and aggressive America poised at their frontier is a discomforting thought for most Iranians. Therefore, it should not appear surprising that Iranians are moving towards a harder shelled leader who will take a stand against the US. It should never be perceived that Iran would be as easy a walk in the park as was. The initial thrust of the US blitzkrieg would meet with much greater and the ‘insurgency’ to follow would be like something never seen by the Americans before. The real Vietnam lies northeast of Babylon.

With both its hands tied up in , the US is highly unlikely to mount a campaign in Iran although over the past couple of years the US has made several attempts. CIA hand was suspected in the voting station bombings in the south west of Iran as well as the Tehran students’ rebellion a couple of years ago. Universities in Iran have been the focal point of societal change and the gained impetus from campuses as well. In 2002 students in Tehran hit the streets and immediately received unprecedented support by the US and western . Wide coverage and kissing up to the students didn’t really pay off and the US was told off and asked not to meddle in the affairs of the students. What really bothered the Americans was that it was not the telling them off but the students didn’t appreciate US involvement. It takes a little more than McDonalds, MTV culture and ‘land of opportunity’ propaganda to woo Iranian students who are socially and politically very aware of their country and the world they inhabit. The US is myopic in its dealings with Iran and must understand that the Islamists rule the country sternly and harshly at times but they still have had a landslide mandate since the , and two days ago they showed it yet again.

Western corporate and the US would have the world think that the major issue of the current has been ‘rigging’. It is highly unlikely that such highly publicized were rigged. Given the levels of public awareness and political activity amongst Iranians, had the been rigged, the western would not have missed even a two man protest and made it out to be thousands protesting, just as they manipulated camera footage in Venezuela. Iranians didn’t even give western that much of space to spin webs in. The main issue surrounding the current election has been the Iran attempt of acquiring nuclear arms and in finding strategic partners in the region. has been a willing partner in the situation where it is surrounded by the US from all sides. Iran finds itself more and more suffocated and finds no alternative but to brace itself for any eventuality by acquiring , to strike alliances where ever possible such as with and to pick a fighter of the , one who played a pivotal role in occupying the US embassy in 1979, as the next president.

On the diplomatic front it has scored quite well. It has managed to step out of the firing line by involving the EU in the nuclear issue. Ever since Russia politely removed itself from the equation, the EU has filled the vacuum and its involvement has ensured that the US is kept at bay.

These are tough times for Iran. Its national security is at risk and it cannot but make certain that the insurgency in does not subside. Its only guarantee for survival is the further entrenchment of the US in the Iraqi quagmire. With two of its greatest enemies, Israel and America, parked next door, Iran is warming up to some grim times ahead with Ahmedinejad in the driving seat.