The movement to force Washington’s hand in pulling American troops out of Iraq is gaining ground. Unfortunately, insightful reasoning from the public leaders and a thorough analysis from the media has been scarce. This is dangerous, given the long-term implications of any decision regarding Iraq, not just on the Middle East but the entire World for the next several decades. Let’s just take a moment to play out the scenario that is likely to unfold if American troops move out of Iraq right now.

Iraq is barely holding on politically and economically despite hundreds of thousands of western troops. These troops are helping engage Al-Zarqawi and other terrorist organizations and trying to keep the borders reasonably patrolled. The American-led occupation of Iraq has fueled a strong anti-US sentiment through the public which is being utilized by the terrorists, Baath’ists and Iranian-backed groups to further their radical purposes. Iraq, which was probably the most secular country in the Middle East a few years ago, has become a hotbed for radical training and terrorism. It has attracted terrorists from across the Arab lands and now, with the Jordan bombing, has started exporting those newly minted human weapons towards whomsoever they choose.

Moving out of Iraq is most certainly going to throw the country into widespread civil unrest and civil war. The anti-US public opinion will be quickly mobilized by the terrorists to weaken or overthrow the government. Even if the government manages to hold on, it will be weak enough to be unable - or unwilling, to act against the terrorist elements. The borders will become porous and an even more widespread recruiting and exporting campaign for terrorism will start. This nightmare scenario for neighboring governments - especially Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, whose governments face criticism for their close Washington relations - is one of the prime reasons for the muted Iraq withdrawal demands from their foreign ministries. The Arabs leaders, in this instance, know what’s best for their autocracies.

The longest border along the east edge of Iraq is shared by none other than Iran, a not-so-friendly neighbor until a few years ago who has now gained influence in the country thanks to elections which brought a Shiite government in place. Moving slowly and steadily towards progressive reform for nearly a decade, the war in Iraq with the subsequent slaughter of some of the most prominent Shiite leaders helped gather momentum that propelled Ahmadi Nejad to the Presidency, a leader probably more radical than Khomenei himself. His recent statement calling for Israel to be "wiped off the map," show that he meant what he said in his campaign talk, for better or worse. Just a few months ago, the British government put pressure on Iran for causing insurgency and attacks against the British troops in Southern Iraq from across the border. The close relations between the Shiite leaders in Iraq with the Government in Tehran go back many centuries. Withdrawal of western troops from Iraq will provide an open invitation for Iran to establish its radical influence even further for the near future in Baghdad, and get it that much closer to its primary target, Israel.

Moving a little further east is Afghanistan, a country deep-seated in radical, fundamental ideals and one that has proved to be an elusive target for powers new and old. Prior to the recent American invasion of Afghanistan, Soviet Union and Britain have tried their hands in Afghanistan over the past two centuries, only to have been battered and worn down by the perseverance and blood-thirstiness for revenge of the Afghans. The American policy-makers have now experienced this first-hand, which is why the stories about Washington approaching the Taliban for some reprieve are now getting attention. To the east and north of Afghanistan are Pakistan, China, and the Central Asian States of the former Soviet Union, all of whom are fearful of this unstable neighbor.

Despite a history of bitter wars and confrontation, the image of the United States as the big Satan is what currently drives these three adjacent countries. From Iraq to Afghanistan, the rise of fundamentalism and the associated terrorism has cause for concern not just for the immediate neighbors, but powers near and far. Porous borders, rugged terrain and a common radical ideology can create a haven for Al-Qaeda that stretches from the borders of Jordan, Turkey, Russia and Saudi Arabia in the East (barely 150 miles from the Israeli border) to the Central Asian Republics in the north, Arabian Gulf in the South and Pakistan and China to the West. The recent events of terrorism in southern Russia, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have been devastating; the danger of having Al-Qaeda patrol the shores of the Arabian Gulf, a few miles from the shipping lanes from the Oil Hub of the World can be easily imagined. Unstable governments in Russia and the Central Asian Republics with their under-protected supplies of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons add another, sinister dimension to this mix.

The disasters of 9-11 and invading Iraq have caused the media and public to consider the future options based on what has happened as a result of those events. However, what was needed prior to the Iraq war, and even more so now, is what will potentially transpire based on decisions being considered right now. The option to withdraw prematurely from Iraq right now is one fraught with grave danger.