Editorial by the writer, published in The News, Sept 6, 2006



Back to square one?

The federal government has finally signed what it claims is a peace deal with militants in North Waziristan. On the face of it, the agreement could be seen as a breakthrough but if one reads the finer print, it appears that the government has all but caved into the demands of the militants. More ominously, the agreement seems to be a tacit acknowledgement by the government of the growing power and authority of the local Taliban and that it feels that Talibanisation will not spread beyond FATA and into the NWFP’s settled districts. The latter is a mistaken view given that instances of Talibanisation and acts involving extremists have been reported from Bannu, Tank and Dera Ismail Khan. Of course, a more positive spin on this could be put, which has already been done, according to which the government has now chosen a path of non-confrontation with the militants to ensure peace in the troubled region and that this has been the tried and tested approach as far as FATA is concerned. A ban on the display of weapons has also been reversed which suggests that the government wants to let the local tribes people live the way they have in the past. However, the reason why the government’s actions imply a caving in to the demands of the militants can be found by looking back into the recent past. Not too long ago, under a different NWFP governor, the government was pursuing a more confrontation and assertive policy and fighting the militants head on. This caused casualties on many sides and led to a situation where both South and North Waziristan practically became no-go areas. One of the key planks of the government’s position was that foreigners living in the area -- whose presence had led to much friction between Islamabad and Kabul -- would have to leave for their home countries.

However, the peace deal signed on Wednesday practically nullifies this key position that the federal government had taken all along in its fight against the militants. Islamabad should know that the fight in North and South Waziristan was not only about fighting militants but also -- and perhaps more importantly -- about checking the spread of militancy and extremism in the area and to the rest of the country. The relevant clause of the agreement that deals with militants says that foreigners living in the area will have to leave. However, in the same breath it seemingly contradicts itself saying that if the militants can’t leave then they can stay, provided they live peacefully and abide by the law of the land and the agreement. Given that the foreigners are wanted in their home countries and given that they have been living in the area for years they are unlikely to leave. Apart from that, it would seem naïve for anyone to believe -- given recent events, particularly the breakdown of the Shakai agreement of 2004 -- that the foreigners would change their ways. In fact, after the agreement’s announcement, a spokesman for the militants quite defiantly said that there were no foreigners in the area and that the government had yet to provide any proof of their presence.

Already reports suggest that contrary to what the agreement stipulates, the militants are still running what seems to be a parallel system in the region. Bands of local Taliban are reportedly patrolling the streets of Miramshah, North Waziristan’s main town, to ensure that the locals comply with the Taliban’s rigid and inflexible version of Islam. The clause also stipulates that there will be no cross-border movement to and from Afghanistan. This is good but given that cross-border movement has been going on for centuries, how can it be expected to now grind to a halt. The border is very porous and almost impossible to monitor with any degree of accuracy, and this means that the government is placing an inordinate amount of trust in the local Taliban. The other question is that sooner or later Islamabad will come under external pressure on why it allowed the Taliban such space. Will this peace agreement be able to withstand such pressures or will the government again launch an operation? Presumably the government thinks that the path chosen now is the lesser of two evils. Only time will tell how correct this assessment is.