Not so fast.

The movement toward democracy has not been halted unless the Pakistani people think that it has been. Yes, the US and UK have done their bit to halt this process. But that again was bound to happen and people expected it. But the forces that drive the desire for democracy are always present. People have to remain optimistic. For failure is inevitable when pessimism sets in.

Newer doors are going to be open. For, those who exercise power do not easily agree to share them. Ordinance or no ordinance. Recently the Karnataka Chief Minister refused to step down though he had commited to do so in favor of the BJP around twenty months back. Similarly, the dictator and his chamchas will not let go of power easily. Noises in favor of such a situation are already being made by the minions of the junta. BB and Fazloo will be made to crawl through dirt before each crumb is thrown their way. A newer leadership is bound to emerge. And this leadership will again turn to the people.

It is here that collective memory is important. The people should demand their pound of flesh. But for this demand to have bite the people should: (1) anticipate this event and (2) have an organization ready to make effective demands. I do not believe that the lawers will provide such a platform though their participation, like that of the press is vital. Given my understanding of Indian politics, and extrapolating from this understanding, I believe that the required platform has to be built by students. At present the religious parties and the MQM (which may still remain aligned with the dictator) seem to have an advantage on this front. But since students in Pakistan are mostly apolitical other groups have a very good opportunity to spread their messages fast and effectively in this community.

As far as day to day bloodshed is concerned, I see it increasing in Pakistan and spreading to India. The dictator and his mafia will definitely try to divert attention to India and I also see a substantial section of moderates support this effort if only due to frustration and a lack of clarity. This time around, if the junta has some intelligence, it will not concentrate only on Kashmir. Assam is ripe and Uttar Pradesh, Hyderabad and parts of Maharashtra are just waiting to boil. Furthermore, the way to go would not only be through bombings but through a serious effort to incite communal riots. Bombs have become common-place and the deaths are often forgotten. The political parties have developed inter-comminal mechanisms to stop potential communal violence that can be generated through bombs. A cows head or two in front of a temple in Mathura is a better way to go. A naked parade of Muslim/Hindu women in Saharanpur/Nowgaon would be ideal. Indians need to be very vigilant. The RSS and the Jamaat need to be strictly monitored. For, though they won't start any event they provide the ideal channels for contagion. And yes, the Indians need to put in more money and resources in Afghanistan. Less for Karzai and more for the Taliban.