http://military-security-review.blogspot.com/,Pakistans Strategic Dilemma

Pakistans Strategic Dilemma



100 days is a long time in history if a country has leaders of substance ! The parliamentary elections of 2008 in Pakistan , it was thought would lead to a great political transformation ! A reasonable expectation provided the motivation to hold these was based on true nationalism and lofty ideals ! What most political analysts missed was the fact that the 2008 elections were designed by powers that matter on the global level as a means to achieve their strategic objectives in the region which comprises Pakistan.For years late Benazir Bhutto at various respectable forums in the west had tried to sell the idea that she was the West's and particularly USA's best bet to deal with the accursed Islamists.Finally in 2007 the idea was accepted an astute political salesman and persuader par excellence that she no doubt was.But strings were attached to the scheme.With master chefs and deputy chefs and kitchen general managers so that the broth finally cooked was according to USA's strategic culinary appetite.Thus the entry into the arena of many strange faces,particularly in the civilian decision making security apparatus was thus no mere coincidence.The USA generally has meticulous methods to identify good collaborators.These are generally identified and finally picked up while they are in junior ranking positions in the law enforcing agencies of Pakistan and its elite Civil service.These men are then groomed,rewarded by promotions and also continuously observed and scrutinized.Some are dropped as was the old fox Ghulam Ishaq first identified by the British and later adopted by American parents from State Department only to be dropped in 1990s when senility kindled the fire of nationalism in that old fox !

Seen in the above premise Pakistan's strategic dilemma remains a combination of following factors.Its collaborator classes including the army,the particular ethnic composition of these collaborator classes and the opportunist life script of these collaborator classes.Seen in historical context Pakistan was dominated by classes with roots in Imperial British Pre 1901 Punjab which included all land in between Jamna River in the east till the boundary of the settled Trans Indus Districts later renamed the NWFP after 1901.The tribal areas were not part of these collaborator classes.Sindh was of subsidiary value as it was not the main army recruiting area nor the crucial frontline province bordering Afghanistan behind which lay the main British threat i.e Czarist Russia.The Punjab became crucial after both Punjabis and Pashtuns from settled areas collaborated with the English East India Company against the rebels of 1857 who were led by Muslim troops of Ranghar and Hindustani Muslim ethnicity.This loyalty was but natural as the English East India Company had saved the Muslims of Punjab and settled area Pashtun districts from the Sikhs in 1849.British policy regarded Punjab as it existed in pre 1901 as its sword arm and best collaborator.The same trend continued after 1947.No less a person than Mr Jinnah realized that Pakistan could not exist without US military support.He made a bid for US support but was cold shouldered.Pakistan's civil service elite and the generals in line with best tradition of Punjab collaboration (and by that is meant pre 1901 Punjab including settled area Pashtuns) made concerted efforts practicing sycophancy and ball shining with USA.The exercise in boot licking finally worked out when the USA decided to employ the Pakistani state as its many minor dog catchers in the region.This was the time when Pakistan's army chief Ayub claimed that his best friend was CIA chief Dulles and Pakistan's army was USA's army in any operation against USSR and not only that against brother Muslim Iranians in safeguarding Iranian oil fields then held by the Anglo American oil interests.

Short words are best and shorter paragraphs and sentences even better.But Pakistan's chequered history cannot be expressed in brevity.The conspiracies were so complex and so soiled that the filth of gutters could pass as natural mineral water in comparison.After 1965 when the USA shunned Pakistan Pakistan's elite rediscovered Islam and made a change of paternity from US to Chinese.The trend accelerated after a humiliating defeat in 1971.No less a man than Z.A Bhutto played with Islam by declaring the Ahmadis non Muslim and banning liquor in army messes.The trend accelerated in 1977 after a US inspired coup in Pakistan in 1977.Following the leftist coup in 1978 in Kabul Pakistan's ruling military junta decided to have multiple strategic parentage which included China,USA and Saudi Arabia with the stated purpose of Islamic jihad in Afghanistan.The same trend continued with uninterrupted breaks till to date.

One major development in this period was the disillusionment of the Islamists with Pakistan's ruling military-civil elite after 9/11.This was a clear breach although it can be said that the Islamists have a certain base in Pakistan's military and intelligence set up.Nevertheless 2001 saw a clear divide.The country was divided ,the army was divided and challenged and Pakistan's non state militant actors decided to be independent of the military intelligence establishment.

The scenario which is likely to unfold is as following.The Pakistan Army which is now percieved as a Punjabi force in the Pashtun regions of Pakistan will be launched into new conterinsurgency operations.It will not make much difference and will only created further crisis.The army has been forced into doing this operatio as without US help it cannot survive.The situation will continue to deteriorate and the tribal areas would become a permanent ulcer for the Pakistan Army.All this would then justify a US operation.Basically heavy bombing with mopping out done by Pakistan Army.The whole exercise is all planned and both the Pakistani army and the new Pakistani political set up is a signatory to this protocol.As a matter of fact that is why the USA had forced Musharraf to have a ceasefire with the present ruling PPP led coalition in Pakistan.

This is the basic reason why the USA decided to employ a new combination of collaborators in Pakistan.A supposedly popularly elected government in Pakistan.The whole exercise was planned in advance.Nothing was randomly done.A change in the army top brass.A democratic revolution.All done with meticulous planning.Pakistan's civil military elite given another chance to prove the 1857 collaborator tradition.Pakistan's civil military ruling clique is however now the epitome of total failure.It is now a country deeply divide and at war with itself.

Thus the Mohmand attack by USA.A carefully planned exercise to sell the idea that if Pakistan's army does not act against the tribals and their Islamist friends Pakistan would be destroyed by USA.The Mohmand attack was done by the USA with full knowledge of the Pakistani establishmnt.Basically the Pakistani establishment wants to sell the idea that the USA can attack Pakistan so Pakistan Army must launch an operation in the tribal areas.Thus a new exercise in Punjab tradition with a Khattak and Yusufzai and perhaps a little Marwat mixture.The British must have briefed the Americans that in Muslims the Punjabis and in Pashtuns some tribes can be trusted.Thus a new exercise in collaboration par excellence.

However Pakistan's strategic dilemma now is that its raison d etre its Islamic ideology has been deeply compromised.Pakistan was created in the name of Islam but at that time too the Muslim elite was just using Islam to protect their class interests.Later over a period of time many in Pakistani masses discovered the concept of Jihad in Afghanistan and Kashmir.The test tube baby created by Pakistani intelligence and CIA got out of hand after 1990.The USA finally decided to silence the grown up test tube babies who had meantime multiplied after 9/11.A strategic decision was made to use the Pakistani forces as the tactical garbage collector.Further it was decided by the USA and NATO to play the ethnic card in Pakistan.On one side the army was pressurized to destroy the tribal Pashtuns.Thus two dual objectives were achieved.Destroy the army's credibility and destroy the Islamists.Thus achieve USA's strategic objectives in the region.Deny freedom of manoeuvre to all US forces.If Pakistan is destroyed and later Balkanised Al Qaeda is destroyed.Afghanistan is pacified and even Iraq can be controlled ! On 25 March 1971 East Pakistan was handed over to the Pakistan Army and Pakistan's Balkanisation was initiated.At that time US policy makers were happy that this would reduce communist influence in the then Bengal.Now on 25 June 2008 Pakistans Prime Minister has handed over the tribal area to the army.Pakistan may not recover from this unkindest cut of alls.May Allah help Pakistan.