The Uncertain Future of India-Pakistan-Iran Pipeline

re: a faithful ally
Guess where behraam is in the picture?

Hint:
It is not the man ordering, nor the head of the terrorist!
Sridhar

#223 by behram1 on February 11, 2006 10:09am PT

hello inbred retard...


Two die as US shells land in North Waziristan

Four children also injured;
officials say artillery fired from Khost

By our correspondent

MIRANSHAH: Two nomad women were killed and four children sustained injuries when artillery shells fired from Afghan territory hit their tents in the border area in North Waziristan.

They said the artillery shells landed in Pakistani territory during fighting between US-led coalition forces and Afghan militants, possibly Taliban. The US and Afghan National Army troops were apparently retaliating against the militants, who had attacked the Shinkai military post across the border in Afghanistan with 18 rockets or mortar shells.

Arjun Ghaddha wants sugar cane therapy

#221 by behram1 on February 11, 2006 5:56am PT

inbred paki retard posts a letter from a paki in a paki rag without any link from the western media...

color me impressed...NOT..

Another validation of what Indians are producing (see in bold face below)

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http://www.dawn.com/2006/02/11/letted.htm#6
Pakistan is losing ground’

THIS is with reference to the article ‘Pakistan is losing ground’ (Jan 31) by Shahid Javed Burki.

For the most part the article is a repetition of old, familiar arguments and hardly contains anything new. There is the usual refrain that “some of the biggest companies of the United States” have announced plans to shift a portion of their business to India. This, Mr Burki says, will create more than 7,500 jobs and will also attract a great deal of foreign investment.

According to him, what attracts foreign companies most to India is not only low costs but also “the quality of human resources available in that country ... the quality of staff being produced by Indian universities.” The point regarding “low costs” is well-taken. However, the quality of staff being produced by Indian universities is a questionable proposition.

Newsweek in a special edition dated December 2005 paints a dismal picture of the state of university education in India.

According to the article “not a single Indian university is among the top 10 in Asia, let alone the world,” and that “only about 10,000 of the 280,000 engineers who graduate annually, or just about four per cent, are of international calibre.” Shekhar Gupta, editor-in-chief of the Indian Express newspaper, is quoted as saying that “the graduates you see on the outside, in places like Silicon Valley, are the cherry on the cake, but underneath the cake is largely rotten.”

The magazine says further that “today there are an estimated 5.3 million university graduates in India who are unemployed” because of lack of adequate skills and knowledge.

In spite of all the media hype, India remains a desperately poor country. To lift it out of its poverty is going to require more than mere foreign investment, which in my opinion serves the economic and financial interests of the foreign companies more than it does that of the recipient country.

Without dependence on outside powers, India is, nevertheless, in a good position to gain international status commensurate with its size and population if it were to roll back its enormous military expenditure, and invest the money so saved in socio-economic projects, and work closely with Pakistan for finding a satisfactory solution to the Kashmir dispute.

The problems relating to the minorities and other disadvantaged groups in Indian society also need to be tackled in earnest. Freed from all these tensions, and from the curse of wasteful military expenditure, the vision of India as a major global player is achievable.

It is hoped that writers and experts of the calibre of Mr Burki will adopt a holistic approach when discussing the economic, social and political problems which beset developing countries like India and Pakistan instead of concentrating on one or two factors.

SALAHUDDIN K. LEGHARI
Lahore

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Another reason for sugar cane therapy for Indian hindoos should continue.

Continued over use of sugar canes on Indian hindoos has created such a shortfall. This is what I knew would happen, when sugar cane therapy was started on Indians. They still need this therapy. As such the world sugar prices will contnue to rise.

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http://www.dawn.com/2006/02/11/op.htm
SUGAR prices in Pakistan are very high now because of high world prices, says Jehangir Tareen, minister for industries, production and special initiatives. Instead of coming up with some special initiatives to solve this problem, he is singing the same old song of high world prices. And to add to that, a foreign newsagency report says that London sugar prices are touching the highest in 15 years. We are paying high prices for a number of imported items including oil for some time now, with its multiplier effect on prices as a whole.

Abay, ulloos.

Factoid junkie and empty skull sperm eater are at it again.

Get back to your railroad tracks, you sperm eaters. All your cut & pastes dung are spreading bad odor which are only suited for places where you take your early morning bowel movements. So go there and leave this chowk.

re: Some Pakis who think Pakistan suck$
A letter in The nation:
(225m spouted up in air

What is being billed as the world`s largest fountain (it actually isn`t) was recently opened to the Karachi public on January 15. Costing the Karachi Port Trust 225 million rupees, the fountain runs from around eight pm to midnight (and sometimes longer on weekends), and shoots water to a height of 624 feet. It also costs around a hundred thousand rupees daily to operate.
In a country struggling to emerge from a disaster several times more massive than the tsunami, in a country where more than half the population lives beneath the poverty line, in a country riddled with debt and perpetual money crises that have turned it into the world`s begging post, it is astonishing how the government can allow hundreds of millions of rupees to be, literally, thrown down the drain.
The justification offered to us is tourism. Who in his right mind really believes that people from all over the world are going to flock to Pakistan with their fat wads of foreign exchange just to see a big blue fountain spout water from the middle of the sea?-MINA FARID MALIK, Lahore, via e-mail, January 26.)
Farukh Salim`s article in TFT:http://www.thefridaytimes.com/page5.shtml
(What is America’s interest in us?
Farrukh Saleem
Is Bush getting frustrated? America demands we do what we have been paid to do

The latest on nuclear non-proliferation is America`s renewed interest in AQ Khan for his knowledge of the Iranian bomb. To be certain, any Pakistani leader who delivers on counter-terrorism, nuclear non-proliferation and Gwadar can count on America`s backing for his or her rule

We have no oil and no human capital. We are a poor, illiterate, resource-less country. There are at least 135 countries that are richer than us (United Nations ‘Human and Income Poverty’). We possess little – apart from our make-believe dragons of self-importance – that could be of permanent interest to America. We manufacture nothing that can be of value to Boeing, Exxon-Mobil, Chevron-Texaco, General Motors, Ford, General Electric, Procter & Gamble, Walt Disney, Caterpillar or RJR Nabisco. The reality is that Pakistan is one big desert with a river running through it. What then could be America’s interest in us?

It largely revolves around counter-terrorism and nuclear non-proliferation. Counter-terrorism, from America’s perspective, is perched on a tripod: Osama bin Laden, Al Qaeda and Kashmir. The first two are tactical while the third is strategic. Bin Laden won’t be around for very long but Coca Cola, Pepsi, Ford, IBM, Citibank, Microsoft, Bank of America, American Express, Hewlett Packard, Novell, Lucent, Kellogg, Pfizer, Intel, Oracle and Xerox are all in India for the long haul. Corporate America sees India as a crucial partner and the US Department of Defence views an end to Kashmir infiltration as a strategic objective.....)
The third article by a Paki compares democracy in India and the lack of it in Pak and draws some important, if strange, lessons from the process.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2006/02/09/story_9-2-2006_pg3_3
Excerpts:
(....A lot of people have reflected upon, written and talked about the contemporary political scenarios of sustained democracy in India, and lack of it in Pakistan. Here is a psychological viewpoint. The region that now comprises India, that is, after the partition of 1947, was more industrialised than the region that is now Pakistan. The Indian National Congress that was the political arm of the struggle of independence of the people largely represented the views and aspirations of the Indian industrialists.

That was one reason why the Indian National Congress was committed to introducing massive land reforms after independence, and facilitating and hastening industrialisation. That was also the reason why the Indian National Congress carried out its avowed agenda after independence and put the country on the path to rapid industrialisation. In the 1950s, and the 1960s, we saw the abolition of feudalism in India and the laying of the groundwork of the industrialisation of the country. These steps moved society away from agrarian feudalism and towards industrialisation, sowing the psychological seeds of the democratic mindset in people. This later sprouted and grew into the strong tree of democracy in modern India.

No force has been able to uproot the tree of democracy planted in industrialised India. The roots of democracy have become so strong that not even the political leader whose father was one of the main leaders of the struggle for independence and who was the prime minister when the Indian army won a war in 1971 could adopt an undemocratic, dictatorial posture. When she tried to stifle the democratic voice of the people by proclaiming emergency laws in the country she and her party were voted out.

Later when she and her party modified their approach, and adopted more tolerant, accommodating, magnanimous, cooperative and hospitable attitudes and norms they were again voted in.

Industrialisation of India is obviously the root cause of why the spirit of democracy prevails in the country and why no one has been able to derail it. It is therefore not mere chance that the president of the country is a Muslim, the leader of the house a Sikh, the leader of opposition a fundamentalist Hindu, and the leader of the ruling party a Catholic Christian.

This is the manifestation of the tolerant spirit brought forth by industrialisation that is also manifest in the democratic political edifice of the country. Can we, in Pakistan, dream of such political tolerance under the given feudal, tribal infrastructure?Not without abolishing feudalism and introducing industrialised infrastructure, and not without setting the country on the path to industrialisation.

Humair Hashmi is a consulting psychologist who teaches at Imperial College)
Sridhar

re: an economic forcast
http://ia.rediff.com/money/2006/jan/25india1.htm?q=tp&file=.htm
(ndia to be 3rd largest economy in 2006

Suman Guha Mozumder in New York | January 25, 2006 12:37 IST

India is expected to become the world`s third largest economy this year after the United States and China, a leading economist in the US said on Tuesday.

Dr William T Wilson, chief economist for Keystone India, a Chicago-based firm providing cross-border trade facilitation and asset management services in the US and India, said after significant accelerations in economic growth recently, India`s economy is expected to equal or surpass Japan as the world`s third largest sometime in 2006.

``The results of liberalising strategic sectors such as telecom, banking, aviation and real estate are now beginning to show,`` Wilson, a former chief economist for Ernst & Young, said.

Wilson said India`s economy measured in PPP (purchasing power parity) terms will eclipse the $4 trillion mark in 2006, making it equal to or greater than Japan`s.

Wilson noted that after growing at 8.5 per cent and 6.9 per cent in 2003 and 2004 respectively, India`s economy is expected to grow 7.8 per cent in 2005-2006 and then decelerate modestly to seven per cent in 2006-2007.

``Depending upon the direction of energy prices, inflation is expected to run between 5 and 5.5 per cent range in 2006.``

Wilson, however, acknowledged that a number of hurdles lie ahead for the Indian economy, including higher energy prices and heavy dependence on petroleum imports.)
Sridhar

re: China and India
This article is from Financial times, written by a Chinese
(China could learn from India’s slow and quiet rise
By Yasheng Huang
Published: January 23 2006 20:06 | Last updated: January 23 2006 20:06

In an article published in 2003 called “Can India overtake China?” Tarun Khanna of Harvard Business School and I argued that India’s domestic corporate sector – strengthened by the country’s rule of law, its democratic processes and relatively healthy financial system – was a source of substantial competitive advantage over China. At that time, the notion that India might be more competitive than China was greeted with wide derision.

Two years later, India appears to have permanently broken out of its leisurely “Hindu rate of growth”– an annual gross domestic product increase of around 2 to 3 per cent – and its performance is beginning to approach the east Asian level. From April to June 2005, India’s GDP grew at 8.1 per cent, compared with 7.6 per cent in the same period the year before. More impressively, India is achieving this result with just half of China’s level of domestic investment in new factories and equipment, and only 10 per cent of China’s foreign direct investment. While China’s GDP growth in the last two years remained high, in 2003 and 2004 it was investing close to 50 per cent of its GDP in domestic plant and equipment – roughly equivalent to India’s entire GDP. That is higher than any other country, exceeding even China’s own exalted levels in the era of central planning. The evidence is as clear as ever: China’s growth stems from massive accumulation of resources, while India’s growth comes from increasing efficiency.

The microeconomic evidence also casts India in a better light. While India’s stock market has soared in recent years, the opposite has happened in China. In 2001, the Shanghai Stock Market index reached 2,200 points; by 2005, half the wealth wiped out. In April 2005, the Shanghai index stood at 1,135 points. This sharp deterioration occurred against a backdrop of GDP growth exceeding 9 per cent a year. It is difficult to find another country that has this strange combination of superb macroeconomic performance and dismal microeconomic performance. It is a matter of time before the two patterns converge.

Why, then, is India gaining strength? Economists and analysts have habitually derided India’s inability to attract FDI. This single-minded obsession with FDI is as strange as it is harmful. Academic studies have not produced convincing evidence that FDI is the best path to economic development compared with responsible economic policies, investment in education and sound legal and financial institutions. In fact, one can easily think of counter examples. Brazil was a darling of foreign investors in the 1960s but ultimately let them down. Japan, Korea and Taiwan received little FDI in the 1960s and 1970s but became among the world’s most successful economies.

An economic litmus test is not whether a country can attract a lot of FDI but whether it has a business environment that nurtures entrepreneurship, supports healthy competition and is relatively free of heavy handed political intervention. In this regard, India has done a better job than China. From India emerged a group of world-class companies ranging from Infosys in software, Ranbaxy in pharmaceuticals, Bajaj Auto in automobile components and Mahindra in car assembly. This did not happen by accident.

Although it has many flaws, India’s financial system did not discriminate against small private companies the way the Chinese financial system did. Infosys benefited from this system. It was founded by seven entrepreneurs with few political connections who nevertheless managed, without significant hard assets, to obtain capital from Indian banks and the stock ­market in the early 1990s. It is unimaginable that a Chinese bank would lend to a Chinese equivalent of an Infosys.

With few exceptions, the world-class manufacturing facilities for which China is famous are products of FDI, not of indigenous Chinese companies. Yes, “Made in China” labels are still more ubiquitous than “Made in India” ones; but what is made in China is not necessarily made by China. Soon, “Made in India” will be synonymous with “Made by India” and Indians will not just get the wage benefits of globalisation but will also keep the profits – unlike so many cases in China.

Pessimism about India has often been proved wrong. Take, for example, the view that India lacks Chinese-level infrastructure and therefore cannot compete with China. This is another “China myth” – that the country grew thanks largely to its heavy investment in infrastructure. This is a fundamentally flawed reading of its growth story. In the 1980s, China had poor infrastructure but turned in a superb economic performance. China built its infrastructure after – rather than before – many years of economic growth and accumulation of financial resources. The “China miracle” happened not because it had glittering skyscrapers and modern highways but because bold economic liberalisation and institutional reforms – especially agricultural reforms in the early 1980s – created competition and nurtured private entrepreneurship.

For both China and India, there is a hidden downside in the obsession with building world-class infrastructure. As developing countries, if they invest more in infrastructure, they invest less in other things. Typically, basic education, especially in rural areas, falls victim to massive investment projects, which produce tangible and immediate results. China made a costly mistake in the 1990s: it created many world-class facilities, but badly under-invested in education. Chinese researchers reveal that a staggering percentage of rural children could not finish secondary education. India, meanwhile, has quietly but persistently improved its ­educational provisions, especially in the rural areas. For sustainable ­economic development, the quality and quantity of human capital will matter far more than those of physical capital. India seems to have the right policy priorities and if China does not invest in rural education soon, it may lose its true competitive edge over India – a well-educated and skilled work-force that drives manufacturing success.

Unless China embarks on bold institutional reforms, India may very well outperform it in the next 20 years. But, hopefully, the biggest beneficiary of the rise of India will be China itself. It will be forced to examine the imperfections of its own economic model and to abandon its sense of complacency acquired in the 1990s. China was light years ahead of India in economic liberalisation in the 1980s. Today it lags behind in critical aspects, such as reform that would permit more foreign investment and domestic private entry in the financial sector. The time to act is now.

The writer, associate professor of International Management at MIT Sloan School of Management, is author of Selling China (Cambridge University Press, 2003 and Chinese edition, 2005)
Sridhar

re: India`s economic boom
We see a nauseating spectacle right here in Chowk where some Pakis just can`t take it. They are only in for more shocks in future, as India strides on majestically with her economic growth while Paki dogs keep barking. Reminds me of an article in Washington times some years ago named: The elephant and the pekinese dog; one does not have to stretch one`s imagination as to guess who the elephant is and who is the pekinese dog. My advice to jealous Pakis: either learn to bear it with fortitude or perhaps take a cyanide pill (for Beharam i recomment the sample of sh!t that i sent from www.iamapakiandiwantindianshit.com website)
Here is a revealing article that talks about the stockmarket boom. The author argues that the boom is real and not a case of ``buble``.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=ajANPGD6_brs
(William Pesek Jr. is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.

10,000 Reasons India Is a Good Investor Bet: William Pesek Jr.

Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- If you`re wondering whether Mumbai`s stock market is experiencing some irrational exuberance, Indian style, Rakesh Mohan will set you straight.

As the No. 2 central bank official, Mohan won`t talk directly about India`s stock rally. Yet to spend an hour with the man who may be the next governor of the Reserve Bank of India is to be reminded why investors are rediscovering India -- and why this week they drove the Sensitive index above 10,000 for the first time.

``There`s been a huge change in the thinking of the Indian people in terms of hope and observation,`` Mohan, 57, told me over lunch in Mumbai recently. ``That`s good news, but so is the idea that people overseas are thinking similarly.``

Eight percent growth and India`s vast potential drove overseas investors to buy a record $10.7 billion more stocks than they sold last year. That`s more than triple the $2.85 billion of net purchases by local mutual funds and helped push share prices higher.

The excitement over this week`s milestone was akin to the Dow Jones Industrial Average`s breach of 10,000 in March 1999. While it took the Dow more than two years to rise from 7,000 to 10,000, India did it in less than one. That has some observers wondering whether Asia`s seventh-biggest stock market is experiencing bubble troubles.

No Bubble -- Yet

India`s stock rally is for real. With rapid growth, a young and expanding population, an impressive stable of indigenous companies and well-functioning capital markets, Asia`s No. 4 economy is merely getting its due. While China still holds the spotlight, investors are realizing Asia`s rise features not just one superpower -- China -- but two.

The question isn`t whether economic improvements are supporting the rally, but rather what the government needs to do to boost the market even further.

Stock-market landmarks are often followed by disappointment. Look no further than the U.S., where the Dow`s initial rise above 10,000 was greeted as a validation of the dot-com mania coursing down Wall Street. Pundits began predicting the Dow at 20,000. Those who bought James Glassman`s 1999 book, ``Dow 36,000,`` may have been tempted to ask for a refund.

What sent the Dow back below 10,000 in the years after its peak in January 2000 was the return of sobriety. Slowly and grudgingly, investors realized the Dow`s boom was more fiction than reality. It wasn`t being fueled by economic potential, but loose monetary policy, unabashed market cheerleaders and a compliant media.

Strong Growth

Last year`s 42 percent gain in Indian stocks wasn`t driven by hype, but progress. Nor was it the product of easy central bank policies, as evidenced by the Reserve Bank of India`s surprise rate hike on Jan. 24. The government didn`t hide its disappointment with the quarter-point move, the central bank`s fourth increase in 15 months.

``It`s almost never the case that any government wants to raise interest rates,`` Mohan said. ``Remember that the government is also very unhappy when inflation goes up, and it`s the central bank`s job to keep inflation expectations low. Inflation getting out of control helps no one,`` the deputy governor added.

While the same is true of stock values, it`s hard to argue that loose monetary conditions are fueling irrational gains in India`s share prices. Nor can it be said that India`s markets are being manipulated higher by the sort of Internet day-trading mania the U.S. saw in the late 1990s.

Foreigners Rush In

In fact, media coverage of the Sensex at 10,000 may capture the imagination of many of India`s 1.1 billion people. Getting more Indian households to invest in the market may allay concerns it`s becoming too reliant on international capital.

Not relying on foreign money helped India avoid the 1997- 1998 Asian financial crisis. Now, there is concern that its markets are becoming vulnerable to the kind of capital flight Asia experienced in the late 1990s.

Such thinking is shortsighted. India is right to seek more foreign direct investment. It also needs a better balance on investment. That means welcoming foreigners who want to trade in India`s markets as warmly as those building factories and creating jobs. It`s about financial maturity.

All this may accelerate economic change. India needs better roads, railways, ports and power systems to pull more long-term investment its way. It also has to reduce poverty, create more well-paid jobs and offer reliable, transparent markets. Failing to do so could prompt shorter-term investors to leave. That prospect may pressure the government to stay on the path toward economic improvements.

India on the Move

In the age of globalization, stock markets are playing unprecedented roles in economies. Foreign capital holds down interest rates, boosts growth and helps companies raise money in the bond market instead of borrowing from banks. In India`s case, it also holds the promise of creating a much-needed wealth effect throughout the economy.

Asked what foreigners don`t understand about India these days, Mohan said: ``We have many problems, but what exists here, too, is a huge variety of things readying India to compete globally -- entrepreneurship, education, new industries, you name it.``

It`s not hype Mohan is selling, but the idea that Indian policy makers are working steadily, if gradually, to upgrade the economy. Let`s hope so -- otherwise India`s stock gains may begin to outpace improvements in the economy. Then India will indeed face bubble troubles.


To contact the writer of this column:
William Pesek Jr. in Tokyo at wpesek@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: February 9, 2006 13:57 EST)
Sridhar

Pakiland makes the forbes list: The world`s most corrupt countries

India makes the Forbes list: Emerging global cities

O! Well, back to the railroad tracks and early morning bowel movements. Indians are in for a rude awakening, no matter what the propagandists wants the world to believe.

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http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/HB11Df03.html
Risk rising along with stocks in India
By Jephraim P Gundzik

India`s benchmark BSE-30 equity index scaled record heights early this month, surpassing the crucial 10,000-point barrier. Heavy inflow of foreign portfolio investment, which amounted to nearly US$11 billion in 2005, has been crucial for the equity market`s current bull run and has pushed India`s stock of total foreign portfolio investment above $40 billion.

In contrast to foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio investment is short-term in nature. In other words, should conditions that encouraged the inflow of foreign portfolio investment deteriorate or reverse, this investment can be expected also to reverse course. Combined with other short-term foreign capital inflows over the past three years, India`s total stock of short-term foreign capital is estimated to be more than $50 billion.

The primary factors that have enticed this enormous inflow of short-term foreign capital over the past three years have been political stability and strong economic growth. Considering the pouring of increasingly large sums of money into India over the past six months, it`s easy to extrapolate that foreign investors believe this stability and strong growth will persist far into the future.

However, should India`s political environment destabilize and economic growth weaken, foreign investors are very likely to take their money and run. With more than $50 billion of short-term foreign capital, the scale of such capital flight could prompt a sharp exchange-rate depreciation, a strong equity-market correction and a significant decline in foreign-exchange reserves.

Political fragility

The government`s continued viability depends on the Left Front`s parliamentary support. The Left Front has become increasingly critical of the government`s policies. Disputes between the left and the governing United Progressive Alliance have erupted over foreign direct investment in India`s retail and financial sectors, the privatization of profitable state-owned enterprises, and the UPA`s drive to modify the Industrial Disputes Act.

In late September, the Left Front organized an enormous nationwide strike to highlight its dissatisfaction with the UPA government`s economic policies. More acrimony has exploded over the government`s close relations with the United States. After India`s vote with the US against Iran in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in late September, the Left Front went ballistic. It accused the government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of casting off India`s traditionally non-aligned status to curry the favor of Washington.

In November the Left Front, in cooperation with the Samajwadi Party, organized several mass rallies across India demanding that the government support Iran in the IAEA rather than the US. Also that month, the left organized massive demonstrations in West Bengal protesting joint India-US military exercises.

The fickleness of Washington`s favor was demonstrated last month when the US ambassador to New Delhi, David Mulford, publicly warned the government that India`s nuclear-energy deal with Washington would ``die`` in the US Congress if India did not support the United States against Iran in this month`s IAEA vote. Once again, the issue of India`s relations with the US and Iran touched off a storm of protests in India, led by the Left Front.

The Left Front again demonstrated its power of mass mobilization during the recent airport strike. This strike eventually forced the government to guarantee the jobs of striking airport employees. The left is distancing itself from the policies of the Manmohan Singh government, paving the way for the withdrawal of its support for the UPA in the Lok Sabha (literally House of the People, the lower house of parliament). This withdrawal could happen shortly after the Kerala and West Bengal state elections in May.

Insurgency woes
Political and social instability are also likely to be attenuated this year by the escalation of India`s Islamist and Naxal insurgencies. After a lull over the past 18 months, the Islamist insurgency in Kashmir will probably regain significant traction in the months ahead.

The powerful earthquakes that struck the region around Kashmir have given Pakistan`s Islamist organizations an opportunity to strengthen their footholds. This, combined with the return of Pakistani and Kashmir-based foreign fighters from Iraq, is likely to breathe new life into India`s Islamist insurgency, as demonstrated by the Islamist attack in Bangalore late last year.

The Naxal insurgency has already been intensifying over the past 12 months. In November the Naxalites carried out their largest ever attack, in Bihar state. More than 1,000 militants attacked the Jehanabad police station, freeing more than 300 prisoners. In addition to killing several police officers, these militants executed many members of a private militia known as the Ranvir Sena, set up by wealthy landowners. According to the Home Ministry, the Naxalites perpetrated more than 2,000 violent attacks last year, killing nearly 800 people.

The surge in Naxalite activity in 2005 can be attributed to two factors: the joining in October 2004 of two Naxalite organizations to form the Communist Party of India (Maoist), and the linking of this organization with Nepal`s Maoist insurgents. The recent escalation of Nepal`s Maoist insurgency can be expected to fuel India`s Naxal insurgency this year.

India`s deteriorating political and social conditions will weigh heavily on domestic investment. Increasing costs, declining profits and the poor condition of the country`s infrastructure are already undermining investment. This bodes ill for the growth of the industrial sector. India`s coveted service sector is vulnerable to weakening private consumption growth. Deteriorating conditions in the agricultural sector, which accounts for nearly 65% of employment in India, poses a significant threat to the growth of private consumption and services.

The economy also faces significant risks arising from much higher international oil prices and the impact of higher energy prices on Indian inflation and global economic growth. The escalating conflict between Tehran and the West could easily lead to an Iranian oil-export embargo or even a US military strike on Iran.

With the balance between global oil supply and demand exceedingly thin, any reduction in Iran`s oil exports could send international oil prices well above $100 per barrel. This would push US inflation and interest rates rapidly higher, prompting sharp deceleration in global economic growth. India`s exports and its economy would suffer greatly in such a scenario. History has shown that emerging-markets investment performance that has lived by the accumulation of short-term foreign capital has also died because of sudden foreign capital flight. And India is very vulnerable to this syndrome.

Jephraim P Gundzik is president of Condor Advisers Inc, which provides country risk analysis to individuals and institutions globally. Please visit www.condoradvisers.com for further information.

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India sucks big time.

Keep Pakistani economy rocking with old economy. Make the infrastructure solid on our own ability first, and just see how money starts flowing. We do not need the economy of code coolies or sucking up to the MNCs.

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http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2006 02 09 story_9-2-2006_pg5_3

Seven-month cement dispatch up 10%, capacity utilisation at 83%

Staff Report

KARACHI: Total cement dispatches for the first seven months of financial year 2006, July-January, has improved by 10 percent with increase in local sales despite marginal decline in exports due to increased focus on local market demand followed by the October earth quake and overall enhanced development activity in the country.

According to the data, total cement dispatches for the first seven months of financial year 2006 stood at 9.95 million tons compared with 9.04 million tons in the corresponding period of last year.

This, hence, depicts a year-on-year growth of around 10 percent. Local sales have increased by 11.2 percent to 9.12 million tons due to rising domestic demand from 8.21 million tons previously, whereas exports declined marginally to stand at 0.82 million tons from 0.83 million tons in July-January, financial year 2005.

India is still committed to the Pipeline, at least formally, according to the new Petroleum Minister, Deora.

India will go ahead with Iran pipeline project

BS Economy Bureau in New Delhi | February 09, 2006 01:42 IST

Petroleum Minister Murli Deora on Wednesday reiterated India`s commitment towards the $7-billion Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. He said he would hold further dialogue on the project when Pakistan`s oil minister visits India next week.
``We are committed to making the project a reality. We need the gas from Iran and will continue to pursue it,`` he said in New Delhi. The project is proposed to transport 90 million standard cubic meters of gas per day from Iran`s south Pars field to India from 2009-10.

On the proposed $22-billion deal with Iran to import 5 million tonnes of LNG a year for 25 years beginning 2009-10, he said, ``We are negotiating the terms. I hope the deal will come through.``

He also said Prime Minister Manmohan Singh would soon call him to a meeting along with Finance Minister P Chidambaram to discuss the pricing of petrol, diesel, LPG and kerosene.

``I am not in favour of raising LPG and kerosene prices as these are used by the poor and vulnerable sections of the society. We need to see how through duty adjustments, raising government subsidy and the issuance of oil bonds the financial health of oil PSUs can be restored,`` he added.

Deora said the government would issue oil bonds worth Rs 5750 crore (Rs 57.5 billion) - in two tranches of Rs 2,000 crore (Rs 20 billion) and Rs 1,750 crore (Rs 17.5 billion) - to oil firms to partly compensate them for losses due to state control on retail prices of petroleum products.

The rate of interest for the bonds being 7 per cent, the tranches would be issued at a gap of 3, 6, and 9 years, officials added.

Meanwhile, head of a committe to look into petro pricing, C Rangarajan, met Deora and said the report on oil pricing will be submitted next Tuesday.

He said the committee would look at various aspects including steps to improve the profitability of oil PSUs, increase in retail prices of petroleum products and pricing of kerosene and petroleum gas.

He said a stand was required on LPG and kerosene prices and if dual pricing had difficulties, then the option of using cash vouchers and debit cards should be explored.

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So no free oil for pakis, eh ???? Sugard-daddy, the Saudis, don`t like them no more...... Ah well....