What Pakistan’s Bomb Could Not Buy

good article mr. hoodbhoy as always
ur rite ... pakistan should stop wetting itself with dreams of standing up to india military-wise
it should wake up, then grow up
and then maybe have a cup of coffee with india
:)

``The most obvious fact is that testing the Bomb speeded up the subcontinent’s arms race``

i think the large scale military aquisitions of both nations in recent times has more to do with their newfound economic prowess rather than their changed nuclear status.

i agree with your remaining views in the article.

And its well written btw :)

Professor Pervez Hoodbhoy`s analysis is logical and straightforward as usual. Unfortunately, the semi-literate defenders of the ``ideological frontiers`` of Pakistan do not have the brains to understand these simple arguments.

Though the article/argument may not go well with the ultra-nationalists on both sides of the border, both the countries have lost more than what they have got from the Nuclear Explosions of 1998. It was a mistake on the part of PM Vajpayee-the nuclear tests were not required at all.

Only if India, after the explosions, had signed the NPT immediately and later Pakistan ,after conducting its own explosions, was forced to follow suit, then India would have gained a huge international advantage.

But that was not to be. And the Nuclear Bombs are no more than the millstones around the necks of both the countries today, as pointed out by Prof.Hoodbhoy.

Sanjay,

If you accept the contention that a handful of nations/states ( which not coincidentally have inflicted the maximum amount suffering on other nations/cultures) can be trusted to have nukes and the rest should be content to accepting voluntary castration, India and Pakistan should sign the NPT and foreswear nukes.

Regards

Pre-Bomb Situation: Indian politicians could order an attack on Pakistan with overwhelming odds and without any risk to themselves sitting in Delhi.

Post-Bomb Situation: Indian politicians cannot order an attack on Pakistan without running the risk of being incinerated themselves.

Case closed.

PS: Not that this will end Prof. Hoodbhoy`s eternal ranting about the bomb.

PPS to #6: And Special Thanks to Indian politicians for persuing the bomb, thus leading to the Post-Bomb Situation below. Particular mention to Mr. Advani, who single-handedly did more for the defense of Pakistan than any Pakistani defense minister ever could have.

God bless these strategic thinkers in delhi. With enemies like these, Pakistan needs no friends. :-)

... and the good professor as usual leaves out explaining HOW `not` detonating would have helped Pakistan !

#8 precisely.

Acquisition of nuclear technology has been a definite boon for Pakistan (and of course, India). Author should not offhandedly dismiss the many important advantages -

* Pakistan`s nuclear status has significantly reduced the probability of India escalating a loalized conflict into a full-fledged war.

*It has greatly, tremendously enhanced Pakistan`s stature within the Islamic world (and inside the general Islamist mind).

*It has boosted the concerns and strengthened the beliefs of those who have been arguing that ``Pakistan cannot be ignored.``

*It has been a source of tremendous national pride for many Pakistanis.

You just cannot put enough value on such advantages. Each can be priceless.

NONE of the problems the author lists can be directly blamed on nuclear bomb.

A.Q. ``Walmart`` Khan`s problems relate to his character, rather, to lack of one and what amounts to the same thing- to his blind Islamism.

Kargil was an expression of Pakistani army`s ideological commitment made and existing long before any nuclear bomb was acquired.

Pragmatism is a virtue. Besides, destruction of Iran`s nuclear ambitions may not necessarily be a net negative for Pakistan.

All of society`s ills cannot and should not be blamed on the bomb. It is not the bomb`s fault that AQKhan is who he is, Musharraf does what he chooses to do, and the state`s infrastructure is in the shape it is in, and so on.

kaalchakra #10 It is always refreshing to read your balanced, realistic posts. This one is no exception.

The recent edition of The Economist shows that Pakistan has 43% of GNP tied to the foreign debt.

And Sultan Ahmed writes in Dawn{ http://dawn.com/2006/05/29/ed.htm}

{Never in the debt trap again

By Sultan Ahmad

PAKISTAN will never again get into a debt trap, says Prime minister Shaukat Aziz. He is, by making this assertion, voicing the views of people in general who are wary of the heavy internal indebtedness of the country, which goes down only to rise again.

After nearly $70 billion of external aid with varying conditionalities, some of which were humiliating, the people of Pakistan want their country stand on its own legs. They hope that the fiscal responsibility law adopted by the National Assembly will be helpful in that direction, although they have their doubts.

Now the Senate wants to adopt the same law and assert itself in the external financial sector. The Senate is restive or restless because of its restricted powers and exclusion from the fiscal sphere. It wants to figure in the fiscal sphere through the fiscal responsibility law.}

It seems that the editor of Dawn must get out of his A/C room and read some reputable international magazine to check the stats of its writers.

---

As for this writer, he should continue his day job as a professor.

Tahmed sahib,

Pakistan (and India) has done the right thing by getting the bomb- it has saved itself from external aggression. However, the main challenge to Pakistani survival now comes from internal actors and non-state actors rather than India.

Regards

Re: # 10



``Pakistan`s nuclear status has significantly reduced the probability of India escalating a loalized conflict into a full-fledged war.``

On the other hand it emboldened PA(which already does not have any civilian checks) to commit (mis)adventures like kargil.One of these adventures will one day result in an all out war and will cost pakistanis dearly.

good one hoodboy......
well yesterday i saw the Muslim league leaders praise Nawaz for deciding to test the bomb.....and then i saw the PPP leaders praise bhutto for initiating the program......its all a political stunt for them juss like october 8 was ......
they needta make their presence felt......

i think some people have been misunderstanding the prof.

what he is trying to say, i believe is that the general concensus that nuclear wapons are NOT a deterrant to further the arms race rather the opposite as shown by the pak-india example.

in this particular case, pakistan has no choice but to follow suit and feel the consequences but it really did not have a choice. hence that case is closed...now its irans turn to defend its land.

Prologic, that is absolutely true, but is that really because of the bomb? All that the bomb has done is that Pakistan`s ``immediate risks`` in a situation of conflict have been significantly redueced. The bomb has been a risk reducer. That is a plus in every way.

Should reducing of risk to Pakistani nation makes Pakistani establishment take bigger risks and more often, then the blame lies with decision makers.

The whole logic of the bomb or anything `making` people do things is silly. People choose to do things, and must bear full responsibility for their actions. If I cut off my nose with my knife and choose to blame the knife for it, then my nose (or my brain) wasn`t doing me much good anyways.

#5 MAJUMDAR


If you accept the contention that a handful of nations/states ( which not coincidentally have inflicted the maximum amount suffering on other nations/cultures) can be trusted to have nukes and the rest should be content to accepting voluntary castration, India and Pakistan should sign the NPT and foreswear nukes.

I think two things are getting mixed up here. One is to sign the NPT without adequate testing of the Bomb and the other one is to sign the NPT after adequate testing of the Bomb. In the second case, you need not further test the Nuclear Device. Everybody knows that you have the technology and you have the bomb but you have decided not to develop or rather test it further.

What you are saying is the usual emotional part of the nuclear proliferators. Now what is the status of India as well as Pakistan after testing of the Bomb ? Are they now free?? Do they have guts now to say or do anything against the wishes of the US?? The answer is big NO. Rather, the Nuclear Arsenal of Pakistan is(said to be and likely so) in the firm hands of the US. India ,on the other hand, being severely arm-twisted to cap its Nuclear Program--Nuclear Deal notwithstanding. Regarding the Nuclear Deal, most likely, the americans are going to let it through only after some guarantee from India regading further testing.

All in all, the Nuclear Bombs are simply fake toys which both the neighbours show off to each other and remain in a delusion that they are nuclear powers--their toys dont have even a nuisance value for other countries. Pakistanis are contended that they are now safe from India without realising whether India had any ambition to attack them or not.

Overall, both the countries have made fool of themselves.

It`s an extremely sensible and detailed article by Hoodbhoy, yet once again.

Much of what the Professor says is true; however, politics is based on reciprocity not on a Miss Universe world peace concept.

India tested to ``vindicate`` Pakistan`s testing, Pakistan tested because it knows India tested to try and hegemonize the region through its economic plans. And frankly, there was no incentive not to follow India`s tests.

And frankly the conventional arms race that India is fueling is quiet unfortunate. There could have been an opportunity, but now it is lost. I`d like to see more people point out the discrepancy between the race to amass weapons and to talk peace in one breath.


-Aisha Sarwari

Re: # 17


``Should reducing of risk to Pakistani nation makes Pakistani establishment take bigger risks and more often, then the blame lies with decision makers.
People choose to do things, and must bear full responsibility for their actions. If I cut off my nose with my knife and choose to blame the knife for it, then my nose (or my brain) wasn`t doing me much good anyways. ``

Absolutely!

I rather have pak with a democratically elected govt in control of nukes rather than military dictators,simply because rarely do a nations people endorse war for petty causes.And since an elected person is answerable to the people he would be more circumspect when it comes to starting a war.

Re: # 10

``It has greatly, tremendously enhanced Pakistan`s stature within the Islamic world (and inside the general Islamist mind). ``
``It has been a source of tremendous national pride for many Pakistanis.``

This was what Mr.Hoodbhuoy was pointing out in his article.Presently ~45 countries inluding countries like zaire,Bangladesh,vietnam are capable of developing nukes if they choose to.So having nukes doesnt improve much the stature of the possesor country.If the islamic world thinks that it is a tremendous achivement, it reveals the anachronistic mindset of islamic world.Further any pride derived from possesing a bomb is to a large extent false pride.

Sanjay,

India (and Pakistan or any other nation or that matter) will become truly independent nations only when they are very strong economically, with military, political and softer powers to match. However, having a nuke does provide some short term nuisance value. Iraq got knocked out but North Korea didn`t.

Morever look at the problem from Pakistan`s angle. It got sliced into two in 1971 at the hands of India. The Paki nuke means that the same scenario won`t be repeated anytime soon.

Regards

Dr. Hoodbhoy writes <<< Moreover, the A.Q.Khan episode – in spite of Pakistan’s repeated assertions that the matter has now closed – is still very much on the minds of the US establishment and media. These reasons account for the US’s flat rejection of any kind of nuclear deal with Pakistan along the lines that it had proposed to India. >>>

The US is not rejecting a deal with Pakistan because of AQK. This is a preposterous assertion. AQK was no newly discovered ``jinn``. His network and what he was doing was clearly visible to the US long before this farce of exposure. Even Hollywood knew of it, there were some arrests in the 1980s of people in the US based upon it, movies were made on it, yet idiots in the admn want us to believe that this was a new success of the ``war on terror`` that agencies whose budgets exceed GDPs of whole countries combined, had no knowledge of him and the network. He certainly is not anyone the US is worried about, or considers of consequence in their dealings with Pakistan.

India is being wooed by the US admn for other reasons, having nothing to do with nuclear proliferation or lack thereof (about which the US is indifferent in that region, except for ulterior motives in the case of Iran). The doctor needs to grow up, gauge the world scene by reading between the lines so to speak, ignoring the official BS that the often selectively amnesic press puts out.

I would have written more, but today is a day of mourning for humanity, for Americans because tens of thousands of lives have been lost in vain following false slogans of freedom and democracy for the empire and its tyrannous elite, while for the rest of humanity it is also a day of mourning for millions that suffer as a result of US militarism, and the hundreds of thousands that have been butchered by them in recent history. I mourn with them, and hope that soon they will wake up and emancipate themselves. InshaAllah.

Hi all...
Some interacts here seem to believe paki nukes will stop india from going to war.
Well paki analysts openly admit that the last time india brought its army forward, it was for an all out war, nukes or no-nukes.

That is what prompted mushy to commit in the next summit in pakistan ``no more terrorism from paki soil``!! (all in black and white to boot).

Had a civilian govt done that, there would have been talk of coup!
Strange how paki interactors behave so shallowly and demonstrate selective amnesia.
Most belive their own spin on things..read that as ``islamic spin``.

Lastly hoodbhoy as usual ends up not the jehadis for Kargil but the BJP govt!!
Wa bhai wah..galti kisiki bhi ho..dant to india ko milnee hi chahiye.

I believe such articles ``loose credibility`` in the eyes of paki readers unless they have ``SOME MANDATORY`` india bashing in them.
(result of the poisoned curriculua may be?)

Jayen

The Paki brigade is in full-throated cry saying that if India did not test in 1998, Pakistan would not have tested and then India would have had the upper hand in any conventional war with Pakistan which India stupidly threw away by testing its nukes.

Do these idiots -- and I am specifically referring to Mullah32 here -- actually believe that Pakistan did not have a bomb before May 1998 and that the Pak Bomb was miraculously developed in 30 days with the help of Allah, Gibreel, djinns, etc., as soon as India tested its nukes? If that is the case, I would have to concede that the Pak missiles were also divinely guided by Allah Himself.

Mullah32 and aisha_sarwari need to accept blame that is due Pak for testing its nukes and getting sanctions slapped on it. Instead of whining, ``India made me do it.``

Grow up, for a change.

Author, it is absolutely ludicrous to think that the 1998 events changed anything drastically - except in perception. The utterances of Pakistani leaders - like the utterances of most Pakistanis on this site (except for the very few sober ones) are - and have always been bluster and hot air and not much to read into! Both countries had already been developing nukes earlier and one of them had already tested before. During the 1990`s - as Pakistani Jihadi adventurism started in Kashmir - their hidden nukes were very much in the background and were already being used as a coercive device - with the threats being communicated to the Indians through third parties. What 1998 did was to remove the cover and force the Pakistanis to either put up or shut up - and also the world to start recognizing India for what it is - a nation representing one sixth the size of the world with a legitimate right to be accorded a status in proportion - at least as much as the Chinese dictatorship, and perhaps even more so on moral grounds due to the nature of the two governments. The US and Indian nuke deal was not done as a favor to India, it was considered in US national interests! The Pakistanis in 1998 chose to put up instead of shutting up and have been paying the requisite price - by choice! A nation`s growth, like that of the human body, must be uniform - otherwise it is not a healthy body! When one part of the body grows disproportionate to the rest, it does so at the expense of the rest - it sucks blood and nutrition from the rest - sometimes depriving vital organs of what is needed for life - and like cancer, it kills the body. Pakistanis chose their destiny in 1947 when they decided to become the small country that they are now. However, illusions of the grandeur responsible for the original mindset - which created the country to begin with - continued to exist - as they desired to match the Indians in arms race - the nukes were considered a magic wand that could make them equal and perhaps even superior! The search for the magic wand to make the rump equal to the whole still continues - the nuke was one such illusory wand - a leadership of the mythical ``ummah`` still remains! Some illusions last longer than others. Pakistanis can either choose to recognize the physical fact that they are a small country and start getting used to the subservient role of the past few years - or can make a clean break with the past - without pushing things under the carpet and hiding the ``jihadi option`` for possble later use. So far the trends do not indicate any genuine change of the heart or the mindset! In many ways, at this point in time, perhaps the benign dictator Musharraf is the only protection against a more comprehensive emasculation. The nuclear genie comes with a price tag - Pakistanis have mastered the difficult art of selling their children into the bonds of slavery for the love of the genie! Such protectors of the ummah!

Mr. Hoodhbhoy wrote:

{{Many gaming scenarios played in the US strategic war planning institutions indicate that there are well-rehearsed contingency plans if Pakistan’s political situation changes radically after General Musharraf’s departure, planned or otherwise}}

Didn`t the US create similar gaming scenarios for Iraq and Afghanistan as well?

For argument`s sake, lets assume that US strategic plans for Pakistan will be 100% accurate. Suppose (in the year 2012), the people are completely disillusioned with secular parties and military rule. The MMA emerges as a viable third option and promises social justice and equitable economic distribution.

Should Pakistanis refrain from this third option because of fear? Can any country allow foreigners to dictate its domestic politics?

Mr. Hoodhbhoy wrote:

{{Punjab celebrates the Bomb while Baluchistan protests it.}}

Baluchi nationalists do not speak for Baluchistan. Baluchistan rejected them in the 2002 elections.

............. the bomb party !

........... i don`t know much about the politics of the bomb and all that fancy high flautin stuff, but one thing i do know for sure : i was really getting a little worried when, for a whole week, pakistan did not come up with a tit to match india`s tat ........... i was having all kinds of scary nightmares about nukes falling on islambad and half-naked gandhian sadhus with upside down swastikas on their foreheads rampaging through the streets of rawalpindi impaling little babies on their pitchforks ......... i said to myself: `` here we go again - the crooks at the atomic energy commission have been up to their usual tricks - stealing all the money and cement and construction steel and spending it on building their palaces in bani galla instead of making the big firecracker !...... thieving ba%#*rds !`` .............. but then they came through !........for once, the pathetic pakis did something that made me proud .......... the sun came out from behind the clouds bringing joy to my heart and a song to my lips and i began planning the ``bomb party`` .........

............ and oh, what a party it was - a party to end all parties ! ... people are still talking about it : all the shrimp and sushi you coud eat, hamburgers, chicken tikka, samosas (those little crispy ones) and veggie burgers and pasta salad for my horrible hindoo friends ...... oh, yes! ...... i invited them too, and even though some of them were a little whiney and kept on insisting their`s was bigger than ours, they seemed to have a good time ............ every one had a good time ...........

#29 continued :

..... and oh, by the way, doctor hoodbhoy - as much as i love you - you are a party pooper !

#8 by zeemax <<< ... and the good professor as usual leaves out explaining HOW `not` detonating would have helped Pakistan ! >>>

Allow me to answer this one if I may.

By sending a message to the Indians that we consider their detonation no more than a rat`s fart, and we don`t buy into this barbaric militarism that the US has forced upon the world and benefits from. It would have done wonders for Pakistan`s genuine independance from global forces impinging upon it. A lost opportunity that will not return.

Very good article.

``For Pakistan, the nuclear cost – political and social – has been even higher than for India``.

- a partisan understatement !

---

...``pre-bomb India could have attacked , post-bomb India dare not......``
Stupid arguments...if Pakistan focuses on nation/ instituition building, democracy, education and economic development why would India invade or attack Pakistan?


if you are obsessed with hostility against an economically, militarily bigger neighbhour at the expense of economic development you will end up being a loser. .....and that is exactly where you are.


and then the hypocrisy about ``unfortunately India has initiated arms race``........India is spending much smaller fraction of its GDP <3% than Paki or most other countries. If your delusions of grandeur / megalomania drive you to compete with India, why should India be responsible for this?

{{The ongoing widespread insurgency in Baluchistan}}

Why is this ``widespread`` insurgency concentrated in the Marri-Bugti areas only?

Respectfully sir, your article is littered with gross exaggerations that turn molehills into mountains. Let`s look at the bigger picture...

The blame for introducing nukes in South Asia lies at India`s door. Pakistan only started its nuclear progamme after India`s first Pokhran tests in 1974. Since India had violated Pakistan`s sovereignty only 3 years ago, Pakistani security concerns were justified. Yet the Americans threw the spanner in the French nuclear reactor deal. This is how America rewarded its loyal friend.

The greatness of a nation is measured by the challenges it overcomes to achieve its goal. The challenges to Pakistan`s nuclear programme were enormous. We had scant resources and faced stiff resistance from US-Israel-Europe. Yet we built a formidable nuclear program.

This is a great national achievement and must be celebrated. Nations that take pride in their achievements are more likely to repeat success in the future. This is the essence of national confidence. There are important lessons to be learnt from this achievement:

1- If a poor country like Pakistan can overcome enormous challenges to create a formidable nuclear program, then it can also develop a first-rate economy.

2- Despite their differences... the Army, politicians, Mullahs and bureaucracy are capable of working together like a team to achieve national goals e.g. dams, economic development, stable parliamentary democracy

3- Notwithstanding the requisite dissenters, the majority of Pakistanis value their national security and ideology (Islam) more than anything else.

``The Kargil episode offers the very first example in history where nuclear weapons, by dint of creating a presumed shield for launching conventional covert operations, were responsible for having brought about a war.

The unrestrained propagation of false beliefs in nuclear security brought India and Pakistan to the brink of a full-blown confrontation that could well have been the very last one. Arguably it was the BJP that, by ordering Pokhran-II, fathered Kargil.`` (Hoodbhoy)

-- a 100% correct asessment -- a Crass Commando turned Demented Dictator vs the Buffoon Bajpayee -- the way that Adhjul Gugree Advani was jumping with glee -- after a few peurile Pokharan Patakhas -- even threatening the Pakistanis with the Nukes on Kashmir -- equally immature Nawaz Sharif had no choice but to explode a few crackers to pour some ice water down on Advani jee`s (now a Jinnah admirer) nucear erection....

...what else can one say bout these Cretins from that Iodine deficient subcontinent....the damn fools.

Re: # 34

Nasah:

I got a real kick out of your description.

Anil

Re: # 33

The pride is understandable.......but unfortunately it is not based on
reality. If you had developed a genuinely indigenous technological
base, instituitions of your own and then built bombs and missiles
nothing wrong for you to feel proud. Missile technology so far has been
simply repainting NK missiles:-) Also as Dr.Hoodbhoy points out
you have just about NOTHING to show in other ``first-rate`` scientific
fields.

India did misuse the reactor from Canada...but a lot of its
technology is indigenous and it has several other accomplishments
to show off in other fields.

Missiles and the bomb have given you a false sense of equality/
accomplishment. We have nothing to gain if you accept this folly!

Re: # 29

Hamidm sahib:

``....pakistan did not come up with a tit to match india`s tat ``

You really wanted Pakistani ``tit``. I thought you would concede Indian ``tit`` is better.

Anil

Re: # 34
````some ice water down on Advani jee`s (now a Jinnah admirer) nucear erection.... ``

LOL. Hasan Sahib, very funny........


except you created an imagination in my mind of the Advani`s p44s..........and I had enough for the day and I am leaving Chowk.......

If anything, it made clear that Pakistan can now never hope for a military victory in Kashmir.


Yup..Pakis will have to swallow the bitter pill and realize that Kashmir will never Banega Pakiland..not the Indian part..

Usually bitter pills can be swallowed with sugar but I hear that`s pretty expensive in Pakiland right now and some of it is from India anyway..

It`s ironic..Pakis swallowing the bitter pill with Indian sugar...

So: All clear headed men (nasah, hamidm, anil, kaalchakra) can agree on the facts. Which basically are, as nasah eloquently put it, equally immature Nawaz Sharif had no choice but to explode a few crackers to pour some ice water down on Advani jee`s (now a Jinnah admirer) nucear erection.... . In other words, only a bigger fool than Nawaz Sharif could have turned India`s overwhelming odds against Pakistan into a nuclear stalemate (and jump with glee in the process)...and Indian politicians were up to that task. And the good professor hoodbhoy will no doubt keep moaning and groaning forever over Pakistan being able to defend itself.

But lets go beyond this now: For that I refer to majumdar #13 where he correctly points out that with India neutralized, Pakistan`s real enemies are now internal to Pakistan. And that is indeed the case. If the good professor hoodbhoy is reading this: Please, Professor Hoodbhoy, be a Goodbhoy and get over this damned bomb and focus your energies on something more relevant today, namely the real issues facing Pakistan today . The real issue is the need to ensure free and fair elections in 2007. There are indeed internal enemies of pakistan - hiding behind beards and behind uniforms - who will come in the way of these elections. So, professor sahib, please focus your energies on these relevant issues, not non-issues like your ranting over the bomb.

#27 by HisExcellency on May 29, 2006 6:49am PT


Can any country allow foreigners to dictate its domestic politics?


Sure..Pakiland does it all the time..Why else is the USAF repeatedly violating Pakiland`s airspace and bombing and killing Paki civilians on Paki soil..

zeemax(grand poohbah of south asian geopolitics): I hear the new Paki foreign minister and Karzai are sayign some interesting things about Pakiland...The foreign minister who was put there at Paki behest by the grim looking Abizaid..

I also heard the USAF bombed Paki territory and whacked a bunch of paki citizens again?

Wutz up wit dat? I thought you said Pakiland was the puppet master there..

Re: # 40

tahmed,

....exactly ! ........... it is nice that we have the bomb and may they multiply and grow bigger and badder so that the horrible hindoos, with their armpit knives and big pitchforks, do not dare cast an evil eye on the land of the pure and ignorant ....... actually, i believe that everyone should have a bomb - the iranians, the fijians and the papua new guineans ...... yea, that`s it, a chicken in every pot and a bomb in every garage ......... but the real question is: then what ? .......... and that`s what dr hoodbhoy and other clever people should be focused on instead of wringing their hands and crying in their yakhni .......

.......... this nuclear stuff, like the chicken flu, is overated

maulana urstruly, if you are lurking, would this behaviour qualify as beghairat..what`re the chances that AQK will have a fatal heart attack in the next 6 months?

Mystery of Pakistan`s cloistered scientist

The large house in a plush district of Pakistan`s capital, Islamabad, that was once his home is now his prison.

Dr Khan has been confined to house arrest since his confession in February 2004 that, as the man who had helped deliver the nuclear bomb to his native Pakistan, he had gone on to transfer nuclear secrets and technology to an array of countries around the world.

Next to the main building sits a guesthouse in which Dr Khan used to entertain his friends and contacts, including many of the Western businessmen who worked closely with him.

Now, the guesthouse is the site of the security detail that monitors Dr Khan`s movements and ensures there is no unauthorised contact between him and the outside world.

One of the few people who had been allowed to visit regularly was his daughter Ayesha.

But for the past five weeks, she has been unable to enter her father`s house.

No other family members are allowed to visit.

Investigation `over`

The BBC has also learnt that other measures have been put in place to tighten security.

These include a gate that has been covered up so that no-one can look into the garden and which ensures that Dr Khan cannot look out.

In recent months, other friends and former associates of Dr Khan have been instructed not to talk to journalists or anyone else about him after previously being allowed to do so.

The timing for the tightening of security is mysterious.

It comes at almost exactly the same moment that Pakistani officials announced their investigation of Dr Khan was over.

They also released the last of his former staff who had been held by authorities for more than two years.

Pakistani officials say they have shared all the information they have with international investigators, including those from the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The matter is closed, Pakistani officials say, hoping that the world may one day slowly forget about the man the government in Islamabad once feted as a national hero.

Iranian question

Meanwhile, the US has been quietly but consistently pressing for greater access to Dr Khan.

The CIA would like to talk to him direct but Pakistan has resisted, saying instead that questions have to be passed through Pakistani intelligence officers who will then return with the answers.

The official line is that Pakistan should be trusted with the investigation and anything else would be a violation of national sovereignty.

But the suspicion has always been that the authorities are resistant to direct questioning for fear that Dr Khan might suggest Pakistani government or military officials knew of his transfers of nuclear technology to North Korea, Iran or Libya.

The US wants to talk to Dr Khan not primarily to answer the question of Pakistani government involvement but rather to see if the scientist could reveal more about his support for Iran`s nuclear programme.

The US particularly wants to know whether Iran is peaceful in intent, as Tehran claims, or geared towards making nuclear weapons, as Washington argues.

In the case of Libya, Dr Khan supplied a nuclear weapons design and investigators wonder whether he could have done the same with Iran.

Confirmation of any such transfer would be highly useful for the US but would also cause embarrassment for President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan.

But the mystery remains as to why security would be tightened at the house and visits restricted at this time.

Dr Khan himself remains isolated, his health reportedly deteriorating.

Trapped with him are the secrets regarding what exactly he did, why he did it and precisely who helped him.

Re: # 20: WHy do you feel the need to establish a parity in countries that are so vastly different in size, population, economic fortunes and histories? Hegemoic ecnomic plans? LOL! India controls less than 5% of global trade...where is the hegemony?

When a trillion dollar economy grows at 6+% for 15 years it is a different beast compared to one that looks like volatility trading chart. Look at the percentage of total spending of GDP on planes, tanks and missiles for India vis-a-vis Pakistan. The competition is simply viewed one way...from Pakistan`s side. There is no competition when sitting in Delhi.

Re: # 27: The differnce is US special forces were not invited in by Iraq or Afghanistan. US intelligence, Military ops are already in Pakistan and one other thing. Forthe defenders Pak, i.e. the pak military...whose love for the country is trumped overwhelmingly by their love for wealth...how much do you think it would take to get them to sell out? I am thinking a Use Of Procceds of around $10 B.

#45 by chaltahai on May 29, 2006 8:53am PT


WHy do you feel the need to establish a parity


It`s the paki way..take the latest silly attempt at manufacturing PhDs to close the PhD gap with India....heard that little attempt at playing catchup isn`t going too well..

Building good educational institutions take a long time..Indian educational institutions weren`t built overnight(just as the system of jihadi madrassahs wasn`t built overnight)...jihad didn`t seep into Paki DNA overnight...

8 years after the nuclear explosions Pakiland is still spending a higher % on its military and a lower percentage on it`s education than India..the results are obvious..Paki investment in their military has paid off..the Paki military is now supreme in Islamabad while Indian educational institutions are renowned worldwide..

‘Almost 59% of Pakistanis are still illiterate’

By Irfan Ghauri

ISLAMABAD: The government’s claims that the Education Sector Reforms Programme (ESRP) has improved the literacy situation in the country have been negated by a report, prepared by the Asian South Pacific Bureau of Adult Education, Daily Times learnt.

In 2001, the government finalised the Education Sector Reforms (ESR) Action Plan 2002-2006 under the ESRP. The plan aimed at increasing the overall literacy rate from 49 percent in 2000-01 to 60 percent by 2005-06; the primary school enrolment rate from 66 to 76 percent; middle school enrolment rate from 47.5 to 55 percent; the secondary school enrolment from 29.5 to 40 percent and higher education enrolment from 2.6 to 5 percent. The report, however, ranks Pakistan last among the 14 developing countries in the Asia Pacific in terms of educational improvement. “Two out of every three Pakistani adults are illiterate; 45.3 percent people have no access to early childhood care and education; 40.3 percent have no access to primary schools and 76.1 percent to secondary school” said the report.

Asian South Pacific Bureau of Adult Education is a network of 200 organizations and individuals involved in formal and non-formal adult education and is partner in the Global Campaign for Education. The report also covers improvements in the education sector in 2005. It shows that 58.9 percent of the Pakistani population is still illiterate. The report said that Pakistan’s primary school teachers are overworked and under- trained as there is only one teacher for 51 students at an average. To substantiate the report, a Education Ministry official said, “We badly missed all targets set under the ESR plan. It is unlikely that we could meet the targets.”

Re: # 6 takhmad

continued...


case reopened once upon a time, there was a country between iran and half incinerated india.

the real problem for pakistan is something else, nukes or no nukes....

its the ``me too`` mentality.

tomorrow if india jumps off the cliff, pakistan would follow suit, without thinking twice even if blairy and bushy persuade it not to do so with all kinds of goodies.

this in paki parlance means ``parity``.

india chopped one of its part, pak is trying to do so

india started developing nukes, pak did it too

india jumped into the IT/BPO bandwagon, pak ``tried`` that too

india inked a deal with u.s. on nuclear cooperation, paky baby wants that lollipop too..

its like a irritating sibling following us everywhere.

the best thing for india is too keep this chote mian at arms length........

this is for tahmed:

how many times am i going to explain you about the origins of indian and paki bombs. how many more times before you remember that nawaz didn`t pull out a nuke from his hat within a month of pokhran....how many times????

all those who think that advani was responsible for paks bomb are truly ``genius``. advani has a brige to sell you, one which starts from your backyard connecting directly to allah`s house. he just needs a pre-payment!!

havign a nuke doesn`t mean that there arn`t going to be clashes even leading to nuke flashpoint.

kargil is one reminder. now one will have to factor the use of nukes in future wars. and if it is worth it, it will take place.

all the wars fought between india and pak were stalemates, except 1971. hence pak had a very good defense already since 47.

do you think india will forfeit 6-8% gdp growth to occupy a 140 million hostile territory????

so forget abnout the nukes/external forces and think about the internal problems that can land you as a ``failed state``.

Re: # 20

aisha_sarvari:

``And frankly, there was no incentive not to follow India`s tests. ``

what about: you keep nukes (just don`t test them) and we (western world) will shower you with economic and military assistance while india will be labelled as an irresponsible country and punished with scientific and trade sanctions.

for a paki definitely it is a not worth it, is it?

---

``And frankly the conventional arms race that India is fueling is quiet unfortunate.``

india can also say the same about china

or afghanistan can also same the same about pakistan.

or pak can pursue it or just shut up.

if indian leadership prefers to spend millions in snow boots while many of its citizens can`t buy a decent pair of chappals doesn`t mean pak should also do the same.

hence, stop being a cry-baby.

---

``I`d like to see more people point out the discrepancy between the race to amass weapons and to talk peace in one breath. ``

let me be the first one:

lets make LoC as an international border and concdeal with our internal problems first. Kashmir, what kashmir???

``Arguably it was the BJP that, by ordering Pokhran-II, fathered Kargil. ``

what do you say about this................

Nawaz okayed Kargil, says book

PTI | July 28, 2004 | 14:09 IST

Former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif granted ``formal approval`` to the Kargil plan to capture Indian peaks along the Line of Control but was informed about it only after he met his Indian counterpart Atal Bihari Vajpayee in February, 1999, according to a book?by an official who worked for?both Benazir Bhutto and Pervez Musharraf.
Pakistan`s Drift into Extremism: Allah, the Army, and America`s War on Terror, is authored by Hassan Abbas, a Research Fellow at the Harvard Law School and a PhD. candidate at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University. He has served in the administrations of Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto (1994-95) and General Musharraf (1999-2000).

According to the South Asia Tribune, the book says says Sharif was briefed about the Kargil plan on March 27 or 28, 1999, though he was ``not aware`` of the operations when he met Vajpayee on February 20.

I was in dark about Kargil aggression Sharief???

Abbas gives a graphic description of ``how the Kargil disaster was planned and managed by the Army led by Gen Musharraf who led a `Gang of Four`, and quotes Pakistan High Commissioner to UK Maleeha Lodhi as saying `even Corps Commanders and other chiefs were excluded from the decision-making process```, the portal said.

``So much so that even the very able Director General Military Operations, Lt Gen Tauqir Zia, was initiated into the secret after the Gang of Four had already taken the irrevocable decision of going ahead with the operation,`` the book said.

Complete coverage: The Kargil conflict

The 1999 Kargil plan, according to the book, was the third in the series, with the earlier two having been rejected by then Pakistani rulers, including President Gen Zia-ul Haq, on the grounds that it could lead to a full-scale war with India.

The ``third and final operational (Kargil) plan`` was put forward by Chief of General Staff Lt Gen Mohammad Aziz Khan, himself a Kashmiri and ``fully committed to the Kashmiri freedom cause``, the article quoted the book as saying.

The second author of the latest plan was 10 Corps Commander Lt Gen Mahmood Ahmad and the third Maj Gen Javed Hassan, commander of Pakistani troops in the Northern Areas (Force Command Northern Areas).

Musharraf was ``taken in`` by the enthusiasm of his closest generals and ``became the strongest advocate of the operation,`` it said.

The book said a presentation was then organised for Nawaz Sharif in March, 1999 ``where he granted formal approval of the plan`` and added that ``at the time of Sharif`s meeting with Vajpayee on February 20, 1999, he was not aware of the Kargil operation``.

However, it said that Sharif ``agreed with the plan, though the operation was already in its final stages and he was not aware of that. Probably in his reverie, he was looking at the glory that would come his way when the fruits promised by the operation were harvested``.

It also quoted Sharif`s close associates as saying that the briefing ``never mentioned that regular troops would be involved in the operation and the discussion was framed entirely in terms of increasing the heat in Kashmir``.

` When the operation fizzled out like a wet firecracker, they were a nation left speechless in anger and disbelief. Musharraf and the planners could not give any excuses in public, but privately they let it be known that the blame for the scuttling of a brilliant operation lay on a panic-prone prime minister, who could not stand up to the US president. Nawaz Sharif too could not say anything in his defense publicly, but privately he let it be known that his generals had taken him for a ride, and that he had to bend over backward to get the US president to help Pakistan out of a very sticky situation,`` the Tribune article said.

``In fact it had transferred this technology to Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and other countries. ``

i thought it was pakistan which was involved in the ``transfer`` of tech to libya. alas, gaddhafi ratted on a.q.khan

Anybody?

Pakistan has 43% of the GNP tied to foreign debt. Why?

Why is it that Pakistan`s foreign reserve still stuck at $10B?

Who is stealing Pakistan`s wealth?

Why are those free press wallas, not articulating this is their articles?

Resspectfully submitted,

``If anything, it made clear that Pakistan can now never hope for a
military victory in Kashmir``

Well, that`s a silver lining right there!

Dr Pervaiz Hoodbhoy, another objective article, pertinent, honest and well argued.

Writer correctly argues against the nuclear explosions and time has proved his thesis to be correct. Has the arms race stoped? On the contrary it has only increased. Have the two neighbours ceased to confront each other as in deterrence? Kargil episode clearly debunks that argument. Fact is, nuclear bomb vfor Pakistan in particularf has only boughtg about more pain and misery, maybe it gives men in khakis that much needed artificial machismo, common man of Pakistan has yet to recover from its tremmors in the form of economic suffocation and rise of religious fanatism.

There is a good chance that one day soon we will look back at Pakistani nuclear explosions as among the best things to have ever happened to our subcontinent.

Henceforth, the Pakistani nation could grow healthy and beautiful. She may cast aside the oppressive weight of an ever-present existential fear that has marred her past.

For Pakistanis, and even for Indians, that would be a miraculous blessing.

There is also a chance that this may not happen. But any positive opportunity deserves to be highlighted. And its attendant hope articulated and shared.

May be, indubitably great minds like Dr. Hoodbhoy will help the rest of us move in that direction....

Ref HisExcellency #33

[1- If a poor country like Pakistan can overcome enormous challenges to create a formidable nuclear program, then it can also develop a first-rate economy.]

I have been told that the US dollar is pretty much counterfeit-proof. Nobody would sell you the intaglio printing machines used by the US Bureau of Engraving and Printing (they are guarded tighter than nuclear secrets), you don`t have skilled engravers who can imitate the US dollar bill, and the paper on which the US dollar is printed is made by a single paper mill in Massachusetts. On top of that, they use special ink, watermarks, etc.

So, there goes your dream of creating a first-rate economy by the same techniques used to create your formidable nuclear programs.

Ref Netizen #50

[the real problem for pakistan is something else, nukes or no nukes....

its the ``me too`` mentality.

....india chopped one of its part, pak is trying to do so]

Your analogy is SO wrong.

Check the average Paki and the average Indian (87% possibility that he is not a Muslim).

You will learn who is chopping off parts of his body.

#33 by HisExcellency on May 29, 2006 7:52am PT


1- If a poor country like Pakistan can overcome enormous challenges to create a formidable nuclear program, then it can also develop a first-rate economy.


You had the same dreams about a billion $ of IT exports..the whole ``If those damn hindus can do it surely we genetically superior pakis can do it better`` thing..

Now you`re reduced to making up an alternate reality in which Pakiland exports 400million of IT..while in the real world, the number, according to all sources - paki and non-paki - is a piddly 50 million..

I heard the whole paki plan of closing the PhD gap with India isn`t going so well either....

Manto....wutz up wit dis?

SECOND OPINION: Was Abdus Salam honoured by us? —Khaled Ahmed’s TV Review

GEO (April 9, 2006) Dr Mehdi Hassan told host Khursheed Nadeem that scientist Abdus Salam was not recognised by Pakistan because he was a Qadiani. He was sought to be contradicted by a cleric discussant saying Pakistan gave recognition to Abdus Salam. Khalid Zaheer stated that Dr Mehdi Hassan was right, Pakistan did not give Abdus Salam the recognition he deserved as a Pakistani.

The cleric was lying. Abdus Salam was not honoured. He was threatened by the clergy; and the state got scared. Police was sent to his grave where it erased from his headstone the word Muslim. This was done under the Constitution. Now the headstone reads “Abdus Salam the first (blank) Nobel Laureate”. There is however a postage stamp with his portrait on it. Prof Khalid Zaheer is to be complimented that as a scholar of Islam he spoke the truth.

The point is: what kind of recognition did Pakistan give to Abdus Salam? Unofficially he was invited to Punjab under a Muslim League government but this was a sneaking recognition by Chief Minister Nawaz Sharif, just as Chief Minister Shehbaz Sharif secretly invited blasphemy-victim Akhtar Hameed Khan of the famous Orangi Pilot Project to meetings in Lahore, while his brother Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif could not get him off a fake blasphemy case in Multan.

Pakistan had nukes before 1998. Nukes prevented war from breaking out in 1986 and 1990.
The nuclear tetsing did not change anything.

It is hard to mount a Kargil when your opponent`s air force has satellite guided weapons. Indian Air Force with their current arsenal of satellite and laser guided weapons would annihilate 2000 odd intruders in a matter of days. Indian Air Force will get better with their new toys from Uncle Sam.

The Indo-US nuclear deal has little to do with breeder reactors. Indo-US nuclear deal is an attempt to provide electricty for Indian manufacturing units. It increases economic gap between India and Pakistan in the long run.

There is no arm`s race between India and Pakistan. India is too big for Pakistan. All Pakistan can do is to maintain a minimum deterence.

There is nothing in Pakistan`s military history that would lead to any neutral observer to believe Pakistan can take sizable swaths of Indian held territorry and hold it. Even if Pakistan captures few chunks in Kashmir Indian army could seize vast areas of Southern Punjab and Sind in response.

HisExcellency #28

`` Baluchi nationalists do not speak for Baluchistan. Baluchistan rejected them in the 2002 elections. ``

you really believe all the staged managed elections

HisExcellency #33

`` The greatness of a nation is measured by the challenges it overcomes to achieve its goal. The challenges to Pakistan`s nuclear programme were enormous. We had scant resources and faced stiff resistance from US-Israel-Europe. Yet we built a formidable nuclear program. ``

Israel did nothing of value to impede Pakistan`s nuclear program. Stealing from Netherlands and translating Chinese instructions into Urdu qualify for achievements :-)

`` 3- Notwithstanding the requisite dissenters, the majority of Pakistanis value their national security and ideology (Islam) more than anything else. ``

Does that include dumping the Taliban after a ``friend or foe`` phone call from a foreign state ?

behram1 #55

`` Pakistan has 43% of the GNP tied to foreign debt. Why?
Why is it that Pakistan`s foreign reserve still stuck at $10B?
Who is stealing Pakistan`s wealth?
Why are those free press wallas, not articulating this is their articles? ``

The increase in oil prices has halted the rise in Pakistan`s foreign reserves.

#63 by bbabu on May 29, 2006 6:22pm PT


There is no arm`s race between India and Pakistan.


India has already forced Pakiland to increase its defense budget..Check out the latest numbers..all this paki whining about India increasing its defense budget is because Pakiland can`t keep up....

Compared to India, Pakiland still spends a higher % of it`s GDP in it`s military and a lower % on education..the results are obvious..the paki military controls Pakiland while the success of Indian education has left Pakis in the dust...

Insurgency, what insurgency?

Pakistani Taliban take control of Waziristan

TANK: When the Pakistan Army’s front line, in their war against terrorism, moved away and the Talibans took control of his home town, Baidar decided that it was time to leave.

“The government is helpless. The Talibans, not the religious students but militant Taliban, are in complete control there, “ said the 30 year old Waziristan tribesman. Baidar closed down his medical store in Bazaar at Wana, the main town in South Waziristan, and moved to Tank, just across the boundary in NWFP.

“The businessmen and the educated people are in real danger of being killed by the Talibans on suspicion of being informers of the America government,” said Baidar, who unlike many others, dared to give his name.

In the words of President Pervez Musharraf, the Pakistan Army has defeated and chased Al- Qaeda out of South Waziristan in all the encounter that took place between late 2003 to early 2005.


According to the Intelligence and government officials, majority of the deeply conservative and largely illiterate people support the self-styled Taliban of Waziristan, which is worsening the situation. These Talibans advise men to grow beards and veil their women, ban the cameras, and are trying to stop people from watching television or listening to the music. President Musharraf cited a report he had received of televisions being set ablaze in Malakand. He said, “This is a Talibanised mindset. It has spread and needs to be stopped. Now we are in a different ball game...h

The government is trying to set up councils of respected tribal elders and administrators, but will take time. In the meantime, President Musharraf says military operations must go on, although the critics fear Pakistan will suffer from the backlash for years to come.

He also warned that the Taliban’s influence was spreading from tribal areas to the neighboring areas. In Tank, armed men roam the streets at night on motorcycles. They’re Taliban, townsfolk mutter in fear. “It is just like cancer. It is bound to spread if not properly treated,” said a senior security officer in Peshawar. reuters

Taliban killed 150 pro-govt Maliks

By Zulfiqar Ghuman

ISLAMABAD: Taliban forces have so far killed 150 pro-government tribal Maliks in the North and South Waziristan Agencies and are openly challenging the writ of the government by engaging a number of security forces’ personnel in the area, the federal cabinet was told on Wednesday, sources told Daily Times.

Rockets red glare, (American) bombs bursting in (Paki) air..

US planes violate Pak airspace

How the North-West can be won?

By Behroz Khan

The news is quite disturbing for the people and the governmnet of the NWFP; it has been reported that the United States has warned that it will bomb any part of the province in pursuit of `terrorists`.

The warning, it is said, was conveyed to the NWFP governor, Khalilur Rehman and of course to the chief minister, Akram Khan Durrani, by none other than President General Pervez Musharraf himself at a meeting in Islamabad. The tone of the message, an insider tells TNS, is tantamount to bullying.

``The president told the governor and chief minister that Americans have warned that those who are hiding in the Frontier and elsewhere will be bombed out,`` a source privy to the meeting revealed, requesing anonymity. The warning left the president angry as well as concerned, the source added, saying this could be an epilogue to increased target hitting by umanned Drones on Pakistani territory.

The clergy-led government in the Frontier, already on the defensive over its silence on military operations in tribal areas and US air strikes, is taking the new warning as a declaration of open war. Confirming that President Pervez Musharraf has informed him of the new dangers ahead, Akram Khan Durrani has said that the US has warned to go after the so-called `terrorists` even in the settled areas of NWFP, if the attacks against the Americans and their allies continued in the neighbouring Afghanistan.

``What use is our strong defence if we cannot defend our innocent people against such naked aggression,`` said Durrani when approached for comments regarding the fresh US warnings. The US authorities, official sources said, are of the opinion that extremists and terrorists take shelter in the tribal areas along the Pak-Afghan border and parts of NWFP after carrying out terrorist attacks in the eastern and southern provinces of Afghanistan. Pakistani nationals have been identified carrying out suicide bombings and fighting the US and allied forces in Afghanistan.

Re: # 66 by bbabu on May 29, 2006 6:32pm PT

{The increase in oil prices has halted the rise in Pakistan`s foreign reserves. }

Agreed to some extent. It seems that Pakistan is not getting those foreign remittances as much. This should be eye opener for some

http://www.statesman.com/news/content/news/stories/local/05/248liners.html

Also, having 43% of the GNP tied up in foreign debt should be an eye opener for Ali Bhai in educated circles of Pakistan. Why is it not? Who is robbing Pakistan?

congrats pakis..your years of investment in jihad has paid off..islamic terrorism has now seeped into the Paki DNA..

SSP vows to establish caliphate worldwide

* Around 5,000 SSP activists rally in Islamabad

ISLAMABAD: Activists of the Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP) vowed to establish a global caliphate, beginning with Pakistan.

In a rally attended by thousands of activists of the banned group to commemorate the birth of the Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) on Friday, leaders of the SSP called for an Islamic theocracy in Pakistan. “The concept of nation state is an obstacle in the way of the establishment of Khilafat. We will start the establishment of Khilafat in Pakistan and then will do so across the world,” said Zaheerul Islam Abbasi, a former general who was sacked and arrested in 1995 for trying to topple the government of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto.

Activists distributed pamphlets in Islamabad preaching jihad and hatred against Shias, as their leaders delivered fiery speeches to a crowd of around 5,000 late on Thursday.

They also sold video compact discs of the beheadings of American soldiers in Iraq, and militant activities in Afghanistan and Pakistan at the rally, which they said was convened to celebrate the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) this month. One of the organisers thanked the Islamabad administration for allowing the rally, which was held under floodlights in a bus depot, with hundreds of riot police watching on. SSP is known to have close links with Jaish-e-Mohammad, a militant group fighting in Indian-occupied Kashmir and with links to Al Qaeda.

Government might allow Sipah-e-Sahaba activities

http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=1111

Fund to facilitate investment of up to $1bn in the private sector

By Khalid Mustafa

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz on Monday announced the launching of $300 million Fund by two leading private equity firms one from the Middle East and the other from Pakistan. The Fund would facilitate investment of up to $1 billion in Pakistan across a range of industries over the next four years.

While addressing mediapersons, the prime minister described the launching of $300 million Fund as historic occasion as this is the largest fund Pakistan will have through private investors.

Abraaj Capital, one of the leading private equity firms in the Middle East, North Africa and South Asian region and BMA Capital, one of the prominent investment firms in Pakistan’s financial markets, have launched $300 million Abraaj-BMA Buyout Fund L P.

Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz said the Abraaj-BMA Fund would be raised from investors all over the Middle East. It is a private sector venture where the government has nothing to do except providing an enabling environment to attract investment.

Shaukat Aziz said this is beginning of a long journey where many other investors will come to Pakistan. He expressed satisfaction that every major name in the Middle East business circles is coming to Pakistan voluntarily. He was confident that the increasing investment would further boost growth, create more job opportunities and contribute towards stronger and prosperous Pakistan.

The prime minister said Pakistan is an economy of $120 billion and 160 million people. It is growing at 6 to 8 percent and the government is pursuing second-generation reforms to sustain this rate.

He said this year the economic growth is likely to be 6.6pc and per capita income has substantially increased to $846. He held out an assurance that the government would continue to pursue the policy of liberalisation, deregulation, good governance, transparency and privatisation.

The prime minister said there is great potential for investors to invest in projects including those relating to manufacturing, engineering, infrastructure and others.

Replying to a question, Shaukat Aziz said our privatisation plan is on track. He was confident that the process would lead to more efficiency, productivity and effective management of utilities. In this connection, he referred to the future plans of the new management of the Karachi Electric Supply Corporation (KESC) and hoped that it would bring better results for the consumers. Speaking on the occasion, Chief Executive Officer of Abraaj, Arif Naqvi said they have decided to launch the largest fund in view of the impressive economic performance of Pakistan and bright prospects.

He said the government’s increasing focus on privatisation and the extremely conducive regulatory environment for foreign investment present great opportunities for business. He said the Abraaj-BMA fund is targeted to raise $300 million and through co-investments will facilitate investment of up to $ one billion in Pakistan over the next four years. He said the fund has already attracted deals worth $50 million in various sectors.

The CEO of the firm said the target internal rate of return would be 30pc. Naqvi said the Fund would facilitate investments of up to $1 billion into Pakistan, across the range of industries over the next four years. “We believe that the partnership between Abraaj Capital and BMA Capital is perfectly positioned to leverage the present opportunities.”

{The prime minister said Pakistan is an economy of $120 billion and 160 million people.}

With 43% tied to foreign loan (or approx. $50B). Is this considered good? Can someone explain?

Or are the paindoos in Islamabad are going nuts as usual?

behram1 #70

`` Agreed to some extent. It seems that Pakistan is not getting those foreign remittances as much. This should be eye opener for some ``

Where are Pakistanis going to work ?

Gulf has been tapped out.

USA is off-limits due to shaky economy and post 9/11 limits.

Australia and Canada restrict intake to rich immigrants.

Europe has a sluggish economy. They take a few immigrants

Malaysia is taking a few Pakistanis. But they are losing factory jobs to China.

`` Also, having 43% of the GNP tied up in foreign debt should be an eye opener for Ali Bhai in educated circles of Pakistan. Why is it not? Who is robbing Pakistan? ``

The problem is not the 43% debt per se. It is what was done with all that money.
I would not mind running a 100% debt if it meant having great universities and great physical infrastructure.

Re:arjun_m

Forget about Pakistan for a moment and look at what your namesake Arjun Singh is doing to India. At the rate he is going, half of IIT/IIM/AIIMS will be reserved category from next year. He is also sharpening knives to have same level reservations in the private sector. There goes India`s economic growth and chances to become developed. Not only that, it is tearing apart India`s social fabric as Bihar style casteism is goin to become part of the National discourse.

If Arjun Singh has his way, we will fall behind Pakistan very soon and lick dust. Pakistan does not have any reservations issue. If they ignore jihad and focus on economy and merit, they will kich India`s a$$ in less than 5 years, while we struggle to deal with 50% reservations. At least the muslims had a Jinnah who saved them. The upper caste, merit based people in India have no savior. They will essentially be consigned to living in a fourth world, substandard Bihar type country forever. So dont celebrate so much about Pakistan`s weakness. India is heading towards destruction at the hands of its politicians.

#22 MAJUMDAR

It is true that Nuclear Bomb does have certain deterrence in a conventional war. Agreed. But in these days of globalisation, no sensible country is going to fight a conventional war with the other(except ofcourse the USA). The others would resort to subversion, insurgencies, rebellions etc. The bigger and economically more powerful will be in a better position to win this covert war.

Bangla Desh can also happen again now--nuclear bombs notwithstanding--but it will be through other means.

So overall in my view, the 1998 explosions by both the countries have not served any purpose for any of them. Neither it has increased the stature of these countries. As far as my knowledge goes, in the world nuclear corridors, India & Pakistan are more known as Nuclear Jokers than Nuclear Powers.

#67

The contention of many Pakistanis in the forum that it is India which is spearding arms-race in the subcontinent is wrong. India does not spend excessively on defence. India spends a bare minimum on defence commensurate with its size and requirements.

It is Pakistan who lives in a false notion that India is going to annihilate Pakistan so it must match India bullet-for-a-bullet, missile-for-a-missile. Well, this is their judgement. It is this wrong notion that makes Pakistan spend more than what is required on its army and defence. Nobody is going to buy the argument that India should curtail its defence expenditure so that Pakistan also does the same. Both the countries have to see their defence requirements, to be bare minimum--not to say.

My sincere advice to Pakistanis is that first they should get out of this annihilation-syndrome otherwise democracy, first-rate ecomony,IT, high technology will forever remain a dream for them. To my mind, Pakistan should have a small army but extremely high-tech in nature and a strong modern Airforce for defending against India, if required. On the contrary, Pakistan maintains a large low-tech army(which can take over the country at will but is still not sufficient to defend against India--so you rely on the nukes) and a shoddy airforce.

76/77,

Very good points, Sanjay.

India and Pakistan being third rate nations face little external threats except for each other-But good quality nukes maybe handy just in case a trillion barrels of oil were to be discovered under the soils of Jhumri Tilaiya or Chakwal.

Regards

#78 MAJUMDAR


India and Pakistan being third rate nations face little external threats except for each other-

India and Pakistan are not nations. They are just two clowns wearing Nuclear hats.


But good quality nukes maybe handy just in case a trillion barrels of oil were to be discovered under the soils of Jhumri Tilaiya or Chakwal.

Yes-or in case we have to protect our Aishwarya Rais and other Miss Worlds.

#72

Private Equity investment is nothing more than organised theft. How it works is through picking companies with strong cash-flows and assets but bad profits due to management troubles. Private equity firms (e.g. leveraged buyouts of yore) borrow to take over the firms through bridge-finance, take over the companies, and pledge the same cash-flows to replace the bridge-finance. They then strip the company`s assets, whittle down the workforce, bring in management to turn around the core business, then sell it off for a quick buck and look for the next target. Kindly note the 30% expected IRR on this particular fund.

So