Escalation of Hostilities in Middle East

It appears that Israel has lost in this war with Lebanon, because they are the ones who are willing for the end to this war. No one from Hizbullah side has asked for an end to this conflict. Actually, in their political calculation, Hizbullah has already won the moral high grounds. A few more days (some estimated as much as 10 days) is needed for Israeli ``mop up``. After that they will make a show that they want to make peace and there is no one in this world to help bring about this peace. What a mockery of human intelligence!

Respectfully submitted,

Re: # 429 zeemax {``...As for the Federal Reserve observation, the overall total indebtedness (i would prefer the term liabilities but anyway ..) of the US administration may be $34 trillion, but what we have to see is how much of this amount can actually be demanded to be repaid. That amount is the portion of the debt issued through negotiable instruments which is $4 trillion out of which $2 trillion is held by foreigners. There is a further $4 trillion which is non-negotiable and can be rolled over on maturity. For the balance, there`s the printing press.

Is it reasonable to believe that for an economy of $13 trillion a year, $ 4 trillion is a problem? Even if it was all demanded back at the same time? ...``}

This is neither the forum nor is this the right time to get into this. Clearly, we seem to have a very different take on these matters and neither of us can prove the other to be in error, becuase in today`s relativistic world ``Proof can disprove Proof and all we are left with in the end is axiomatic faith in the righteousness of our own convictions...``

Let me paraphrase Jerry Green of Harvard University and the National Economic Research Council to desribe the sort of problem we have regarding the data you refer to.

A century ago, everyone thought time and distance were well defined physical concepts. But neither proved absolute. Instead, measures of time and distance were found to depend on one’s reference point, specifically one’s direction and speed of travel, making our apparent physical reality, in Einstein’s words, “merely an illusion.”

Like time and distance, standard fiscal measures, including deficits, taxes, and transfer payments, depend on one’s reference point, reporting procedure, language and labels. As such, they too represent numbers in search of concepts that provide the illusion of meaning where none exists.

Standard and routinely used fiscal measures, including the deficits, taxes, and transfer payments, are economically ill-defined. Instead these measures reflect the arbitrary labeling of underlying fiscal conditions. Analyses based on these and derivative measures, such as disposable income, private assets, and personal savings, represent exercises in linguistics, not economics.

I do urge you, however, to take out some time and look at the other side ofthe coin with an open mind. I don`t want to give you any arguments because you are a professional and I am a layman lacking any institutional credentials. Let me refer you to the writings of those who are more of an authority and have the credentials. There are seven links below, picked more or less randomly for a vast array of sources. A few of these are reports of main stream journalistic sources and thenthere are some academic studies. They all seem to say the same thing which is not liked by you banker types.


drudge report in the news

bloomberg news

daily telegraph news report

a contrarian financial website editorial

an academic paper by a Fed economist... pdf file

another serious publication

a non-main stream but serious website

Hope some of it is worth your time.

Cheers,

...SR

#428 by masadi

....this foe has invaded and occupied Lebanon for almost 20 years, finally to be evicted by the Hizb. Now, this ``armed to the teeth``...foe wants the only movement to have successfully challenged it militarily to disarm....

Yes. Isn`t that sweet? That is really the upside-down world scenario that echoboom had related in one of his posts.

But then one must understand why. It can only get the Hazb disarmed through its own volition or voluntarily if Hazb is compelled to do so to stop the suffering of the entire Lebanese population. That is why the means of existence of the entire population is being stomped out, while Hazb remains undented; let alone destroyed or even weakened, after 13 days of bombarding everything including milk factories. The Hazb rockets keep flying, 80 yesterday, and Israeli forces inside Lebanon border continue to suffer daily casualties.

#187 by harish_hyd(carried over from other board).

...what would YOU infer if I said that the 57 Sunni scholars had died and yet there was peace between Shias and Sunnis? Please let me know if I missed something here...

Harish, yes you did miss something vital here. While I never said anything to the effect that Sunnis were blasted OR even LIKELY to have done so by Shias at Nishtar Park, and Hasan Turabi was blasted by Sunnis, YET you inferred it, because of the pre-conceived notion hammered into people`s minds through the media that Shia/Sunnis are mortal enemies. Nothing could be farther than the truth. Please note that if, Shias/Sunnis THEMSELVES believed that to be true, then streets would have been full of blood upon MERE sucpicion.

Hope you`re having a good trip. If you`re interested, we may continue this conversation on the Lebanon board because its more active and we may get valuable input from others.

#423 by SR

...it is a mere picnic and that the NATO clowns are on their way bringing snacks, beverages and birthday hats...

In a BBC interview yesterday, ex-Spanish PM José María Aznar floated the idea that Israel should be a member of NATO. When asked incredulously by the host that since NATO is based on the foundations of collective defence, wouldn`t that mean that NATO should be bombing Lebanon? And he replied ``Yes, why not, if it is required``.

In a unipolar world, I don`t see any hope for peace for a very long time to come. At the same time, the interests of other major powers such as China and Russia cannot be in conformity with such uni-polarity because in the end they will be stomped out as well, for being different, after the uni-poles have finished with the Muslims. Your views?

#388 by SR

I agree broadly on your analysis. Israel`s security lies in having buffer zones all around its parameters. These buffer zones started out as relatively small, but have continually become bigger and bigger as the strength of its rivals has increased over time, and now it has little choice but to try to turn the adjoining areas which are not under its influence via USA (Jordan, Egypt) into wastelands.

Someone also posed the question (blulleya?) why was it that Lebanon didn`t have ground/air missiles or even the basic batteries of antiaircraft to protect its airport? My take on this would be that there is an unwritten arms-sale embargo on all these countries adjoining Israel, and such weaponry is not available on the black-market. Even if it was, it would be quite impossible for the regular Lebanese army to seek the same because it was a US ally, and doing that would be betrayal. As it turned out they got stomped out in return.

As for the Federal Reserve observation, the overall total indebtedness (i would prefer the term liabilities but anyway ..) of the US administration may be $34 trillion, but what we have to see is how much of this amount can actually be demanded to be repaid. That amount is the portion of the debt issued through negotiable instruments which is $4 trillion out of which $2 trillion is held by foreigners. There is a further $4 trillion which is non-negotiable and can be rolled over on maturity. For the balance, there`s the printing press.

Is it reasonable to believe that for an economy of $13 trillion a year, $ 4 trillion is a problem? Even if it was all demanded back at the same time?

Cheers!

tahmed writes <<< heir demand for ceasing hostilities as conveyed by Rice to the lebanese earlier today - and which has been rejected by the lebanese parliament at least for now - is (as I understand it) to replace Hizbullah forces with lebanese/international forces in south lebanon. That seems a reasonable demand to me - after all, they are not calling for taking over any territory... >>>

I salute the generosity of the Lebanese for even allowing Rice to land on its soil after the US gave an open licence to Israel to continue its barbaric invasion. They could have done an Israel number on her, a high value bargaining chip to secure the release of prisoners or better still, to secure an immediate ceasefire.

So, tahmed says that the Hizb should disarm and that is ``reasonable``. Let us see, on the south of Lebanon is an armed to the teeth foe, with the latest most lethal ``weapons of mass destruction`` to quote their favourite phrase, this foe has invaded and occupied Lebanon for almost 20 years, finally to be evicted by the Hizb. Now, this ``armed to the teeth`` foe keeps building up its military capabilities and routinely violates the airspace of this neighbour to the north and to enhance its military domination wants the only movement to have successfully challenged it militarily to disarm. Sounds just as ``reasonable`` as breaking the legs of your opponent and then challenging him to a race to see who wins.

Re: # 422

> How the Hindu & Muslim education system was massacred & dogs were made of humans...

Duh, abe talk about your system only. Leave the Hindu education system alone.
... You are what you are - just an Arab goo-chaater ... The whites at least made sure
that they were fair in their dealings as far as day-to-day law & order were concerned. And after
they left, the hindus still had pride in their civilization. Look at what the Arabs did to you ...

bulleya #414 your post is about how the lebanon crisis wil play it. Their demand for ceasing hostilities as conveyed by Rice to the lebanese earlier today - and which has been rejected by the lebanese parliament at least for now - is (as I understand it) to replace Hizbullah forces with lebanese/international forces in south lebanon. That seems a reasonable demand to me - after all, they are not calling for taking over any territory - but for lebanon to assert its control over its own territory. The same way musharaff needed to be pushed into asserting pakistani control over what is pakistani territory, namely the tribal areas.

Perhaps the lebanese will change their minds in a few days. But then, what do I know!! Or, as bulleh shah (from whom your nick is inspired, it seems) would say:

bulleya rab rakkhhay nakamay arabiaN daa khyaal
bulleya ki janaan main isrealiiaN di chaal :-)

Please note that this was June 18th, 2006 news reported by REUTERS


BEIRUT, June 17 (Reuters) - Lebanon will complain to the United Nations about Israel after a Lebanese man confessed to killing Hizbollah and Palestinian guerrillas on the orders of Israeli intelligence, the prime minister said on Saturday.

``We consider this as an act of aggression (by Israel),`` Fouad Siniora told reporters.

``We are working on the file and once it is completed we will submit a complaint to the United Nations Security Council.``

Lebanese military intelligence arrested Mahmoud Rafeh and three other suspects last week in connection with a May 26 car bombing that killed two Islamic Jihad officials.

Israel had dismissed Lebanese and Palestinian accusations it was behind the killing of Mahmoud Majzoub, known as Abu Hamze, and his brother Nidal, both members of the Palestinian militant group in the southern port of Sidon.

The Lebanese army said the suspects had links to Israel`s intelligence agency Mossad. Rafeh also confessed to assassinating two officials of Lebanon`s Hizbollah guerrilla group and a senior Palestinian militant, the army said.

Several Palestinian militants and Hizbollah officials have been killed in Lebanon in recent years in attacks their organisations have blamed on Israel.

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Also note that the under was reported by AFP on June 29th 2006

DAMASCUS (AFP) - Syria has vowed to defend itself after Israel threatened to kill Hamas militants based in Damascus and flew warplanes over a Syrian presidential palace.

Israel, meanwhile, was on high alert for possible retaliation.

Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Naji Otri said his country was ready to defend itself against the Jewish state.

``Syria is capable of defending itself against any aggression,`` Otri told reporters, slamming Wednesday`s overflight during which Damascus said its anti-aircraft gunners opened fire as an ``act of piracy``.

He expressed ``surprise at the silence of the international community toward all these Israeli acts and daily aggressions ... This is the result of the weakness of the Arabs.``

The Israeli army said it was bracing for any strikes by the Syrian-backed Hezbollah, amid international concerns that the escalating crisis between Israel and the Palestinians could spread across the region.

``This measure has been taken due to concerns that the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah or other organizations will try to trigger an escalation of hostilities by launching border attacks,`` an army spokeswoman said.

Israel army units were placed on alert along the northern border to ``be prepared to face any likely scenario``, she said.

Hezbollah, also backed by Syria`s main regional ally Iran, has carried out several deadly attacks along the Israeli-Lebanese border since Israel withdrew its troops from southern Lebanon in 2000.

Tensions are running high in the Middle East after Israel launched a military offensive in the Gaza Strip on Wednesday to hunt down a teenage soldier captured by Palestinian militants.

Israel has warned that Palestinian militants of Hamas exiled in Damascus, including political supreme Khaled Meshaal, are clearly in their sights over the kidnapping of 19-year-old Gilad Shalit in an attack on the Gaza border on Sunday that also killed two Israeli soldiers.

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Now of course, the Israeli`s have developed amnesia.

There are nine Lebanese prisoners in Israeli jails and two Israelis in Hezbollah jails. They should do a swap.

There is one Israeli soldier in Palestinian jail, and 10,000 Palestinians in Israeli jails (these are figures from the Economist). I doubt Israel would do a 10,000 for 1 trade. But I think some of the jailed prisoners are members of the Palestinian parliament and perhaps a few ministers also. There should be a trade for the soldier and a few assembly members.

If this war keeps going, then Syria could get involved. That would turn Lebanon into the killing grounds of old. Syria, Iran, Israel, USA, Palestine fighting their wars in Lebanon.

Re: # 391 hamidm2 {``.... you ... have a theory ... outlandish and ridiculous ... `wasteland thory`.... package it well, it will have a lot of takers ....``}

This ``wasteland theory`` was not the central theme of my long message. It was almost an irrelevancy, but of course, that is my only point you choose to dwell on. It was an idea that perhaps was a bit of a stretch. I almost didn`t include it at first but, I must admit, it sounded a bit pompous and I succumbed to the temptation to insert it into the message only because I liked the sound of it. This morning it doesn`t sound as great any more so let`s ignore it for it only serves to distract from the main theme. It’s not my original. I picked it up during a conversation with a 60 year old senior vice president of a big investment bank in London. He was at this peace rally. This past weekend I drove all the way down to London to attend the anti-war rally with Gabriel -- my seven year old archangel -- (the wife refused to join us on account of the crazy crowds and the weather -- which wouldn’t suit our little one.)... These rallies are always wonderful to participate in. You should try going to one next time. The crowds (mostly young) were refreshingly electrifying. Only a few score mullah types on the fringes to whom very few people paid any attention. The rest were a rainbow collection that included orthodox Jews (protesting against Israeli fascism), Lebanese nationals (mostly Christian) and a vast array of peace (and fun) loving folks, playing their guitars and drums, spreading the message of love and passing around the peace pipes. There was no need to wait for peace to be restored to the beaches in Lebanon, all the pretty girls in their bikinis (and often-times in less) were right there in Hyde Park. Believe me the Muslims were a distinct minority of those who were protesting these atrocities.

{``.... question is : why can`t the muslims accept israel and the civilized way of life ? ......... all sorts of people [are] all over the world - ... muslims are ... very different ........ and being different wouldn`t be all that bad if they weren`t so intolerant of other people ......``}

I don’t know the answer to this any more than you do. To say that the Muslims need to look inward and engage in serious reform to catch up with the 21st century is undeniably true. But I was not talking about how backward or enlightened the ummah was as a whole.

My point was restricted to Israel’s extra-ordinarily vicious bombardment that is destroying much, much more then the few terrorists that were foolish enough to be waiting around their know watering holes. If these were really clean surgical strikes against Hizbullah I would understand. But what we see is absolutely inhumane savagery. This is morally as bad as the indiscriminate killing of innocents by your run-of-the-mill suicide bomber in a crowded bazaar. I believe that Israeli military over-reaction in Lebanon is not only counter-productive, but also a criminal act of state terrorism against a vast population whose only sin was that they were the innocent hostages in Hizbullah`s hands. That was why I brought in the Chechen`s in Moscow school incident as a parallel. What Israel is doing is orders of magnitude more extreme and absolutely criminal and immoral. The present Israeli military action is ethically at par with any act of al-Qaeda or Adolf Hitler`s invasion of Czech territory in 1938.

If an alien from outer space came and analyzed the HARD numbers of this conflict (body count), it would be compelled to conclude, on the basis of QUANTITATIVE data that the Israeli military machine is a far, Far, FAR greater destroyer of innocent lives and property than ALL the Mid-Eastern terrorist militias (Hammas, Hizbullah, Al Fateh, Black September, etc, etc.) combined. I repeat, ALL COMBINED... Yes, yes, yes, ... you`ll give me the story that it is ``unintentional`` and ``regrettable`` and that it is not premeditated as is the suicide bombing of a bus. But try telling that to the parents, widows and orphans of those who were ``collateral damage`` in Israel`s `moral and just` pursuit of `noble` goals of peace and security. Just do a numerical comparison yourself. Or do you not ever bother to dig below the headlines?

{``..... it is going to be a long war, but as far as this lebanon thingie is concerned you will see nato-led troops on the border and girls in bikinis on the beaches of lebanon soon ........ i think it is the girls in bikinis that really bother the hezbollah ............``}

This long war is not going to help anyone. I am certainly against war. Any war. Every war. Because I believe that war is inherently evil. Violence only begets more violence. Nothing can ever be resolved through violence.

So, now here we are at the verge of a potentially disastrous global conflagration and no one is willing to say that ALL sides engaged in escalating this violence are wrong and deserve equal rebuke and condemnation. But you claim that it is a mere picnic and that the NATO clowns are on their way bringing snacks, beverages and birthday hats.

I suppose when oil exceeds $100 a barrel and a gallon of gas in Iowa sells for $6.50, America may start waking up to look at concrete facts on the ground in the Middle East. In the mean time let’s just agree to disagree.

...SR

Lord Macaulay`s address to the British Parliament --1835

or How the Hindu & Muslim education system was massacred & dogs were made of humans.

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“It was February 1835, a time when the British were striving to take control of the whole of India. Lord Macaulay, a historian and a politician, made a historical speech in the British Parliament, commonly referred to as The Minutes, which struck a blow at the centuries old system of Indian education. His words were to this effect:

“I have traveled across the length and breadth of India and I have not seen one person who is a beggar, who is a thief. Such wealth I have seen in this country, such high moral values, people of such caliber, that I do not think we would ever conquer this country, unless we break the very backbone of this nation, which is her spiritual and cultural heritage, and, therefore, I propose that we replace her old and ancient education system, her culture, for if the Indians think that all that is foreign and English is good and greater than their won, they will lose their self-esteem, their native self-culture and they will become what we want them, a truly dominated nation.” A strong and ever vital education system is therefore fundamental to the survival and growth of civilizations.