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DAMASCUS, Syria, Aug. 6 — The success or failure of any cease-fire in Lebanon will largely hinge on the opinion of one figure: Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Hezbollah, who has seen his own aura and that of his party enhanced immeasurably by battling the Israeli Army for nearly four weeks.
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Shawn Baldwin for the New York Times
Posters of Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, are common at anti-Israeli demonstrations in Tehran and around the Arab world.
Hostilities in the Mideast
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Bryan Denton for The New York Times
Copies of the Koran, images of Hezbollah’s leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, and pictures of missile launchers on a desk in a Beirut refugee camp.
With Israeli troops operating in southern Lebanon, Sheik Nasrallah can continue fighting on
the grounds that he seeks to expel an occupier, much as he did in the years preceding Israel’s withdrawal in 2000.
the grounds that he seeks to expel an occupier, much as he did in the years preceding Israel’s withdrawal in 2000.
Or he can accept a cease-fire — perhaps to try to rearm — and earn the gratitude of Lebanon and much of the world.
Analysts expect some kind of middle outcome, with the large-scale rocket attacks stopping but Hezbollah guerrillas still attacking soldiers so that Israel still feels pain.
In any case, the Arab world has a new icon.
Gone are the empty threats made by President Gamal Abdel Nasser’s official radio station during the 1967 Arab-Israeli war to push the Jews into the sea even as Israel seized Jerusalem, the Golan Heights and the Sinai Peninsula.
Gone is Saddam Hussein’s idle vow to “burn half of Israel,” only to launch limited volleys of sputtering Scuds. Gone too are the unfulfilled promises of Yasir Arafat to lead the Palestinians back into Jerusalem.
Now there is Sheik Nasrallah, a 46-year-old Lebanese militia chieftain hiding in a bunker, combining the scripted logic of a clergyman with the steely resolve of a general to completely rewrite the rules of the Arab-Israeli land feud.
“There is the most powerful man in the Middle East,” sighed the deputy prime minister of an Arab state, watching one of Sheik Nasrallah’s four televised speeches since the war began, during an
off-the-record meeting. “He’s the only Arab leader who actually does what he says he’s going to do.”
off-the-record meeting. “He’s the only Arab leader who actually does what he says he’s going to do.”
Days after the current war started, he ended a speech by quietly noting that Hezbollah had just attacked an Israeli warship off Lebanon, a feat considered inconceivable for his group. Those who rushed outside saw a glow visible from the damaged vessel offshore, setting off celebrations around Beirut.
The departure represented by Sheik Nasrallah — his black turban marking him as a sayyid, a cleric who can trace his lineage back to the Prophet Muhammad — has been particularly evident in those speeches. He makes no promises to destroy Israel with its superior military might, but to make it bleed and offer concessions.
“When he says to the people: I am your voice, I am your will, I am your conscience, I am your resistance, he combines both a sense of humility and of being anointed for the task,” said Waddah Sharara, a Lebanese sociology
professor and a descendant of Shiite clerics. “He’s like the circus magician who pulls the rabbit out of his hat and always knows exactly who is his audience.”
professor and a descendant of Shiite clerics. “He’s like the circus magician who pulls the rabbit out of his hat and always knows exactly who is his audience.”
Some call it his “Disney touch.”
In many ways, this war is the moment that Sheik Nasrallah has been preparing for ever since he was first elected to run Hezbollah at age 32 in 1992, after an Israeli rocket incinerated his predecessor.
In his broadcasts he appears tranquil, assured, sincere and well informed, in command of both the facts and the situation, utterly dedicated to his cause and to his men. He is aloof yet tries to lend his secretive, heavily armed organization an air of transparency by sharing battlefield details.
On Thursday, he offered to stop firing missiles if Israel halted its attacks, saying Hezbollah preferred ground combat. Hezbollah’s position on any cease-fire, echoed by the Lebanese government, is that none is possible as long as Israeli
soldiers remain inside the country.
soldiers remain inside the country.
“He has all the power; the government has no cards in its hand,” said Jad al-Akhaoui, the media adviser to a Lebanese cabinet minister. “He keeps saying that he supports the prime minister, but there has been no translation in the field, nothing has stopped. The decision is still Hezbollah’s decision.”
It is not even clear how such decisions are formulated. Even though Hezbollah has two cabinet ministers, proposals are passed through Nabih Berri, the head of the Amal Party and Hezbollah’s onetime rival as the voice of the Shiite Muslim working class.
Lebanese officials said that once Mr. Berri passed on the proposals, nobody was quite sure what happened. Hezbollah officials are either unreachable or mum.
But Sheik Nasrallah is definitely in touch. He gloats over the evident confusion reflected in the Israeli news media about their military offensive. He is known to have read the
autobiographies of Israel’s prime ministers. He always calls Israel “the Zionist entity,” maintaining that all Jewish immigrants should return to their countries of origin and that there should be one Palestine with equality for Muslims, Jews and Christians.
autobiographies of Israel’s prime ministers. He always calls Israel “the Zionist entity,” maintaining that all Jewish immigrants should return to their countries of origin and that there should be one Palestine with equality for Muslims, Jews and Christians.
In the past, when Israel advanced into Lebanon against Palestinian fighters, the Palestinians would defend fixed positions, then retreat toward Beirut as each line fell.
