The Calculus of Miscalculated Human Misery

Re: # 64


hp,

........ in case you are wondering about my position on iraq after the elections, i would like to go on record and state that i am with john mccain on this one - we must do whatever it takes to win .........and winning means disarming all the militias, killing all the jihadists and if need be, having a us general (a la macarthur) run the country for the next twenty five years .......... if it takes a million men, so be it (i am willing to forgo my tax cut).........

as douglas macarthur said, ``it is fatal to enter any war without the will to win it`` and `` in war there is no substitute for victory``

.......... or as i would say, ``laton kay bhoot, baton say nahin mantey`` - you only have to look at urstruly`s post for validation of this postulate :)

Re: # 65

I think universal baniya is lot smarter than you. At 4 billion dollars a week expense any baniya would run with his dhotti on his head. White people call it `cut and run`; I call it, moula bux peer ay vigray tigriaN daa - and it is quite obvious what Arabs have done with the moula bux - they have shoved it where sun doesn`t rise.

Re: # 66

urstruly,

..... i am not a bania and am willing to pay whatever it takes to win this war - the alternatives are too unpredictable and scary .......... but it must be complete and total victory - none of this `phased redeployment` crap .........

Here is my plan that is under discussion on another forum right now.

The Baker-Hamilton group is looking for a new approach to forge a bipartisan consensus on Iraq. Bob Gates appointment is perhaps the first step in correcting the military disaster that has befallen the US due to that incompetent fool Rumsfeld, who wanted to be the military general and the civilian planner and ended up failing at both and led the US at the verge of a potentially humiliating situation. Now at least Bob Gates, a consummate bureaucrat, would let the Generals make the military decisions and his job would be to sell it to a restive and cynical US Congress and the US public.

The three ingredients needed for the new approach:

1. Make this arrogant administration eat the humble pie
2. Create a timetable for the US withdrawal
3. Negotiate with insurgents both local and foreigners and design some confidence building measures that can bring them to table to talk.

The Humble pie number 1:

Get the UN security council involved and let the security council members plus Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia find ways to:
1. a political solution.
2. Prod UN members for creating a 100,000 strong Iraq peace force that will be ready to replace the US army in phases. (The US must bear all expenses for this force.)
This administration has badmouthed the UN so many times that going to the UN would be the last thing it would accept. To soften this blow, create a focus group of the same countries above outside of the UN.

Humble pie number 2.

A) Announce a timetable for the US withdrawal. Cheney would probably resign before he allows el Presidente to sign on this but this must be shoved down the administration’s throat. Otherwise, the disaster in Iraq will continue and there is no way the US public or the new Congress will wait for two more years of inaction in Iraq.
Once the timetable is announced and the UN forces are being assembled, start talking with the insurgents through intermediaries.

Negotiations:
Drop bucket loads of money for compensation for the dead Iraqis. Give the Sunni tribal leaders the authority to distribute money as they please. Ask Saudi Arabia to announce amnesty for it citizens that are fighting in Iraq. This is a little known secret but 90% of foreign insurgents in Iraq are perhaps Saudi citizens who blend with the local Iraqis well. The Baathist would also like them to leave the country.

Start deploying the UN forces in different Iraqi Provinces and seek cooperation from the tribal and religious leaders. Once the UN deployment is complete, let all groups in Iraq start talking about the future.

I think it can work in less than three Friedman units.


#65 by hamidm2
Hamidm, You can start a tv war of your own to achieve your objectives.

hamidm,

The alternatives are very much predictable, and of course they are quite scary. It will get worst before it gets better.

Re: # 68

hp,

.................. i admire your faith in the ayrab`s ability to solve his own problem, but i think it is wishful thinking ............ the important questions are : how many insurgents are there ? 20 thousand ? 50 thousand ? ..... and what will it take to exterminate them ? half a million troops ? a million ? ......... i think that once the militias are disarmed and half the insurgents exterminated, the iraqis will be able to put things together with supervision from a us/un force - something like bosnia ........... but it will require a lot of patience on part of the american public and a gag order on the lunatic fringe of the democratic party .........

Okay Hamidm,

How much time do you need to finish them off?

Now I am not privy to the information abt the insurgents, but recently the US army concluded they are abt 30,000. Now 150,000 strong US army is trying to get to these 30 k for the 3 1/2 years. For you alone, it may take couple of hundred years. So go ahead and make their day!

Btw, where did I show any faith in arabs? All I said was, ``let all groups in Iraq start talking about the future.`` the talks could go on for years that wouldn’t bother me. I want my fellow citizens in the US army back home.

They don`t deserve to be with Arabs for an extended period of time. They might pick up bad habits and that might cause an increase in gay population in the US that is already hovering around 10%. Notice how gay population increased after the Vietnam war!

``but it will require a lot of patience on part of the american public and a gag order on the lunatic fringe of the democratic party ``

HAHAHA! They own the US now! It is time for the lunatic fringe of the republican party to hide in some sheep farm in the south and have sex there too. I hope you get an internet connection at the farm!

Let`s face it, the pullout is going to happen.

An exchange abt my post #68 on another forum.

HP

Who do you see serving up this humble pie? What makes you think the president will eat it? I guess the Rumsfeld firing might be one indication that he`s prepared to change direction in some way, but I cannot believe that there will be any substantive change.

The US has no relations with Iran and Syria. Iran and Syria have absolutely no incentive to do anything but wait and watch as the US armed forces are depleted. The UN just got a fresh snub this week with the lame duck Bolton appointment.

Woodward reported that Bush was staying the course no matter what. He may well agree to claim to be undertaking yet another approach--sending Condi around the world again, say. But there is no evidence I can see that would lead me to believe that there will substantial withdrawals any time soon.

In the spirit of hope, I can make a constructive suggestion to add to your list: make sure a substantial fraction of oil revenues goes directly to citizens. This will lessen the Sunnis fear of impoverishment and will create a disincentive for interfering with production.

Posted by: Jay Ackroyd at November 14, 2006 | Permalink to this comment

My response

Jay,

As I see it, we have prepared the humble pie already and now it is up to our new reps to serve it. I doubt that the elections were an exercise in futility. However, we will surely see a lot of resistance from the administration but the public opinion at this time is not on their side. Sending the armies out on a war is relatively easy but the task of bringing them back without a victory can get nasty. Since there is no hope for a victory in Iraq, the public opinion would continue to bear down on the admin and the Congress to bring the troops home.

Your pessimism is well founded but the events on the ground and the forces of change are stronger. I doubt that there is any sane American left out there who would relish the status quo in Iraq.

Once the administration accepts the notion of change, it is everyone’s job to keep them moving in the right direction. This admin will continue to slide downwards on a slippery slope and that will give plenty of opportunities to the right-minded people to press home the advantage.

I know the admin has a huge mental block about talking with Iran and Syria and that is why I think either the UN or a focus group consisting of the countries I mentioned, would perhaps help break the ice. I am sure you are aware of some rendition flights that took some terrorists to Syria and back. So, the US does have a channel open to talk to Syria.

There is no solution in Iraq that will take less than a year. So initially, a timetable for one year would probably get the ball rolling.

“Iran and Syria have absolutely no incentive to do anything but wait and watch as the US armed forces are depleted.”

I don’t subscribe to that. The situation in Iraq also creates problems for both countries. In a civil war like the one we have in Iraq, the warring groups seek new hideouts and the fights begin to spillover in the neighboring countries. The ongoing civil war in Iraq may create refugee situation for both countries too. Lastly, no country cherishes living next to a war zone.

The US withdrawal from Iraq would establish Iran as a regional power and I think Iran would prefer that the US armies leave the area.

Posted by: HP at November 14, 2006 | Permalink to this comment

``am willing to pay whatever it takes to win this war - the alternatives are too unpredictable and scary .......... but it must be complete and total victory - none of this `phased redeployment` crap .........``(hamidm)

let`s nuke them worthless Iraqis -- how dare they fight the Americans baRa sahibs -- fused-spined stupid bastards -- why can`t they bend and make a normal U turn like Musharraff did

let`s evapora them.......

.....especially after the American voters just gave their `thumping` mandate to that -- bushier than bush -- crazy macaca macane -- for a `complete and total victory`......

Re: # 61
MASADI when did you become this

jo bechtay thay daw-e dil voh dukaan apni buRhaa gaye haiN

this presidency is a dying presidency -- it is going to stink the place before its rotting carcass is removed from the premises and buried deep after 2008 -- and the place disinfected and sterilized once again....with myriads of about to begin court cases......the Bush war criminal cabal is going to be under `country arrest` for years to come...unable to travel abroad for fear of arrest at foreign airports for torture and crimes against humanity........

#68 by HP on November 14, 2006 12:13pm PT


Here is my plan that is under discussion on another forum right now.


Goatbrain...why don`t you offer up a plan to get the CIA to stop whacking pakis on paki soil..and your army from pathetically firing on mountains to take the blame...

Let this be the Humble Pie that these Paki Islamists require on their face regarding Iraq-


1. Start hundreds of civilian multi parties without religious agendas.
2. Conduct elections where parties cannot compete on religious and non-secular agendas.
3. Do not give any credence to militant groups. Outright ban them as out laws.
4. Promulgate a secular constitution with no reference to Islamic laws.
5. Arrest all the mullahs and send them to gitmos without worrying about anything else.

the moment Islamists find themselves debarred from sharing the power they would run and hide in their rat holes and blow themselves up to heavens............

At least for all who live in America the beautiful, the land of the free and the home of the brave, the bastion of human happiness, there is even more good news. There is no CONSTITUTIONAL provision nor ANY STATUTE of federal law that LEGALLY REQUIRES any wage earner or salaried employee to file his/her federal income tax return. No kidding. (More below, just in a minute.)

This may not appear as a relevent point in this particular discussion, but if one examines the deeper roots of these ``clash of civilizations`` type issues, then the connections are discernable, but with some diligence. It becomes possible to see the present day ``religious`` and ``national`` conflicts as mere symptoms of a greater struggle between individual liberty and centralized control. This ``centralized control`` could be of any flavor. Ideologies, particularly religions, attempt to promote a mind-set that is subservient to some (real or imagined) authority and discourage the exercise of individual liberty. Centralized control of individual conduct is thus sought through indoctrination of the particular ideology. But religious fundamantalists or militants are a spent cartridge. They don`t have any real power in this world, except the power of cause minor disruptions here or there. The more dangerous form of centralized control that threatens individual liberty around the world, including inside America, is the immense force and invisible global control of money power. Actually, the threat is most grave inside America simply because Americans have more to loose. The poor Somalis or Rawandans, by comparison, have already a lot less to loose. The American government is merely the instrument.


Click here to see a video documentary that starts by telling about the money stealing frauds that the US establishment has perpetuated. The first issue addressed in that income tax filing is not required under the law. ``Rubbish`` is what I said when I first heard it. The IRS is a real monster that no one can deny. But the documentary shows (besides much else) interviews of former IRS agents who confirm this. There is also an interview of a former jurors in a tax case. The jury aquitted the defendent because of the absence of any statutory requirement to file a 1040... There were IRS regulations, but the defendent successfully argued, based on supreme court rulings that he had not broken the law.

But this is not all.

This video documentary (the same video as above) also details the role of a private banking cartel that most believe is only a government agency and is subject to the normal checks and balances by the peoples representatives.

Unfortunately, its a long video. The size of a full length feature film. But I think it will be well worth the time. It has good entertainment and information value. Turn your speaker volume up.

God bless America.

...SR

Good News.

In Pakistan RAPE of a woman is `NOW` (baRee der kee mehrebaaN atay atay) a Penal offence -- like most of the civilized world -- not any more a Religious Porn to be watched by 4 voyeur Mullahs.

That God`s refuse Fazulu-rahman did not take kindly to his being deprived of his Islamic right to watch the ``Sex Act`` -- of a Pakistani woman being brutally raped -- with three of his MMA colleagues -- Qazi Ahmed -- Maulana Samiulhaque -- and that shame of a Baloch, Liaquet Baloch -- Fazulu walked out in a huff from the National Assembly during the passage of the Bill.

one only hopes Fazulu hangs himself by the nearest neem tree out of dire disappointment and depression!

my compliments to that (andhoN maiN Kaana raja) Musharraf -- for introducing the long overdue Bill and Benazir for supporting it wholeheartedly.

and for that bill-opposing idiot -- the mullawannabe -- the shariati (ghair) Sharif ......the less said the better.

``ISLAMABAD: President Pervez Musharraf commuted on Thursday the death sentence of British national Mirza Tahir Hussain, officials said, paving the way for his likely release from jail after 18 years awaiting the hangman’s noose.

Mirza Tahir Hussain, 36, will instead be given a life sentence for the 1988 murder of a taxi driver, meaning the 36-year-old could be eligible to go free from jail because of the time he has already served in prison.``

yet another feather in `Kulah-e Musharraf`.....the MAN is on the roll.