India, Pakistan and the Kashmir dispute

Re: # 187
I studied ng prices over years and find around 4.5 years period there are dips ( or peaks) in localised sense.( Local maximum or minimum in that range). The reasons can be many and they have definite logic for 60% and about 40% are unforseen situations ( When you look back you can ( in epilogue) understand why it happened. Intropolation is piece of cake extrapolation is impossible in equity markets its all speculation .
The equties indicated give dividend on average range of 15%. Almost all are at bottom range about 50% of yealy peak. In next 3x15 to 4x15 years one can pick up 45% to 60% dividend and Natural gas prices will rise ( as prise has gone down marginal fields are getting abandoned and use of NG will increase is prediction ). Also oil prise have dived down from 72 to around 60 dollars. Within few years price will go through normal cycle and prices will get around 65 to 68 or even more ( all speculations) NG will go up in price and Canadian Natural Gas stocks will go up and if one sells one can get good gains. ( if for good or bad political problems get flareup in saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Russia or Azebaijan , nigeria , sudan etc will be make energy prices pick up even better)I do not know tax implications for sure.

Re: # 187
I studied ng prices over years and find around 4.5 years period there are dips ( or peaks) in localised sense.( Local maximum or minimum in that range). The reasons can be many and they have definite logic for 60% and about 40% are unforseen situations ( When you look back you can ( in epilogue) understand why it happened. Intropolation is piece of cake extrapolation is impossible in equity markets its all speculation .
The equties indicated give dividend on average range of 15%. Almost all are at bottom range about 50% of yealy peak. In next 3x15 to 4x15 years one can pick up 45% to 60% dividend and Natural gas prices will rise ( as prise has gone down marginal fields are getting abandoned and use of NG will increase is prediction ). Also oil prise have dived down from 72 to around 60 dollars. Within few years price will go through normal cycle and prices will get around 65 to 68 or even more ( all speculations) NG will go up in price and Canadian Natural Gas stocks will go up and if one sells one can get good gains. ( if for good or bad political problems get flareup in saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Russia or Azebaijan , nigeria , sudan etc will be make energy prices pick up even better)I do not know tax implications for sure.

#176 by dost-mittar on December 22, 2006 3:41pm PT


I have seen many news items in Pakistan lambasting some draft report on Kashmir by a European Commisssion led by one Emma Nicholson. Strangely, there is very little mention of it in the Indian media.


Perhaps because Indians don`t give a pakis rear either way...Even if the report said something that pleased the pakis, it means squat...

PS: I do not mean to imply that Pakistan during the Zia rule was like Nazi Germany; the parallel I drew had only a restricted validity.

hamidm:

``dost, it might be hard to believe but pakistan was a pretty moderate place even in the late seventies - there were three liquor stors in sleepy pindi where you could buy fine murree brewery beer and horrible whiskey seven days a week without anyone asking questions .......... somewhere along the line, gabriel visited zia-ul-haq and islam was reborn in ghq and the mullah/military axis has existed ever since``

I have said this before that Pakistani liberals find Zia to be a convenient scapegoat and forget those who prepared the grounds which made it possible for Zia to deliver the final blow. Some time ago, someone posted the letter of resignation of one Joginder Mandal, from the Pakistan cabinet in early `50s. Mandal was a Hindu dalit who had thrown his lot with Jinnah despite being dubbed traitor by fellow Hindus but was forced to leave Pakistan and went to India. You would then find that the wrought had been pretty much set in during Liaqat Ali`s time itself and by him when the Objectives Resolution was developed. The problem is that that wrought did not affect the lives of nominal Muslims who could go on religously prohibited merrimaking to their heart`s content. They were not affected when Hindus and Sikhs were killed and ethnically cleansed from their homes, they were not affected when the Hindu-Sikh culture and identity was given takhlia from Pakistan; they were not affected when Muslim classical musicians were banned from practising their art (of course, the great artists of Hira Mandi patronised by the liberal Muslims were untouched!); they were not affected when Ahmadis were declared non-muslims. So, when Zia moved against them, there was nobody left to rise in protest on their behalf. Some parallels to a certain European country before the second world war come to mind.

Re: # 182

I think Bengalis should be mentioned before Ahmadis.

#179 Mohar

[So hamidm and other paki whiners should start doing something for the miserable kashmiris that they have, instead of lusting after the ones they don`t have, the ones who don`t need nothing from them... ]

But the mian is INDEED doing something for those miserable folks! No, not donating to charities for the earthquake-ravaged Kashmiris! That kinda stuff is for the wimps - and Pakistan is the land of the super virile!

He puts his money where his mouth is - i.e., into the Right Honorable Congressman Eatallofus Towns` rear pocket - the Congressman who is just da man about HIS town!

#177 ``exclusing non-kashmiris`` should read ``excluding non-natives``

#158 hamidm2
India is not even squatting on the land - unlike china in tibet and pak in kashmir & gilgit, india has a deliberate policy of exclusing non-kashmiris from settling in kashmir. If anything, hindu and buddhist kashmiris have largely been driven out of the valley and now they are squatting in places like dilli.

Re: # 177

Hamidm is just p!ssed that pakis have no testicular fortitude take the land they call ``in our blood``... so he is making up innuendos and hurling impotent threats...

India won kashmir in war, fair and square... india defeated the so-called ``lashkars`` aka pakis without uniforms and got the land... so india is NOT ``squatting`` on nothing... it`s our land, we won it by defeating advancing paki hordes of lashkars - end of story...

Now if a few thousand kashmiris have problems with that - then they have option to move to land that pakis occupied using the lashkars - the so called AJK... just face mecca and start walking...

From DM`s post below - it appears that after the earthquake, there is nothing left in AJK anyway... people there are more miserable than ever - people have no sustenance, no housing, no food, quake victim children are being trafficked with abandon... where as victims on indian side have been well-cared for...

So hamidm and other paki whiners should start doing something for the miserable kashmiris that they have, instead of lusting after the ones they don`t have, the ones who don`t need nothing from them...

Emma Nicholson Report:

I have seen many news items in Pakistan lambasting some draft report on Kashmir by a European Commisssion led by one Emma Nicholson. Strangely, there is very little mention of it in the Indian media. Pakistanis are up in arms against the report as it is accused to have anti-Pakistan bias but nowhere did I find a summary of the Report. So, I went to Mr. Google to find the report but had a hard time finding it. I did, however, find a comment on it by Shabir Chaudhry of JKLF who has summarised the main points. So, here is that summary, alongwith some of Dr. Chaudhry`s remarks:

[url:http://www.asiantribune.com/index.php?q=node/3652]


Before we analyse the report and see good and bad points in it, it is important to note that Emma Nicholson is European and will think like one with no personal and emotional ties with that region, especially with the Kashmir dispute. Also we need to note that her conclusions are based on the information she gained from Kashmiri and other sources. Moreover no report could be perfect- every report will have its critics and admirers.

Another point worth considering is that in the recent past three reports have been compiled by notable international bodies, and they all have criticised government of Pakistan. The government of Pakistan is annoyed with all three reports and is busy trying to refute them. First report is by Human Rights Watch, second is by Emma Nicholson on behalf of EU, and the third is by International Crises Group.

Does this mean that all these reports produced by prominent international bodies are wrong and government Pakistan is correct?Or there is some truth in these reports and government of Pakistan, as all undemocratic and corrupt governments do, is trying to hide facts; and divert attention from the real problems faced by the people on the Pakistani side of Kashmir. This is not to suggest that people on the Indian side of Jammu and Kashmir have no problems - they are the worst sufferers of militancy, counter militancy, terrorism and violence.
................

Some of the salient points of the report are reproduced for the readers that they can see for themselves merits of this report; and also see why Islamabad is annoyed:

C. `whereas the question of water resources is a factor underlying the dispute between Pakistan and India over Jammu and Kashmir and is central to any definitive resolution,`

2. `Notes that both countries are now members of the nuclear club; draws attention to the fact that India is the world`s largest democracy and has a functioning democracy at local level, whereas Pakistan still has to show that it is respecting democratic principles in a great many areas;`

8. `Is deeply saddened that the earthquake had a disproportionate impact on children, nearly wiping out a whole generation of Pakistani Kashmiris, which may well be the most devastating long-term impact of the earthquake; is highly concerned about reports of child trafficking in the aftermath of the disaster, given that even before the earthquake mechanisms for child protection were virtually non-existent;`

9. `Draws attention to the plight of three million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) created by the earthquake in AJK; in the absence of a convention on the rights of IDPs, welcomes the UN`s `Guiding Principles` which offer the basis for a humane response to the insidious assault of forced displacement on human rights; demands that Pakistan respect these principles supported by the international community and strongly recommends that the EU focus consistently on them, as well as on broader issues of democracy, justice and human rights in Pakistan; notes also that on both sides of the LoC long-standing `refugee` camps should be dismantled, and proper attention paid to their occupants` protection, needs and social integration;`

10. `Stresses that the disaster struck a region already weakened by 60 years of festering conflict, one which is in the eye of the storm of the war against terrorism, and where fundamental institutions have been constantly undermined by organized crime and terror networks exploiting Pakistan as a major base, using the rugged terrain and institutional deficiencies of that country to undermine regional stability;`

11. `Is appalled that the already minimal basic ``rights`` enjoyed by Pakistani Kashmiris before the earthquake (i.e. food, water, shelter, sanitation, schools, and barely adequate health-centres) have been decimated, compounding a situation notable for a lack of democracy and the existence of oppressive and unjust laws, especially those applicable to women;`

12. `Strongly emphasises that, in the context of the massive destruction and social upheaval wrought by the earthquake on an already weakened democratic base, and given the enormous seriousness of the humanitarian situation, continuing calls for a plebiscite on the final status of Jammu and Kashmir are wholly out of step with the needs of the local people and thus damaging
to their interests; urges those playing `big power` politics when millions are in basic need to redirect their energies to fighting the corruption that has wrongly diverted the flow of international funding away from the intended recipients; notes that, even without the earthquake, any plebiscite would have been meaningless without a change in policy from Islamabad, which maintains that all of Kashmir is an integral part of Pakistan`s territory; underlines furthermore that a plebiscite without such a policy change could be no more than a rubber stamp on the status quo;`

13. `Notes that Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir was less affected by the earthquake than its neighbour (tens of thousands made homeless, as opposed to millions on the Pakistani side) and has been better able to cope; applauds the competence with which the emergency was addressed by the government, the local population and the army; notes that, as a result, of the 30,000 who lost their homes, all now have housing due in large measure to an intelligent self-help policy instituted by the government;`

17. `Regrets, however, that Pakistan has consistently failed to fulfill its obligations to introduce meaningful and representative democratic structures in AJK; notes in particular the continuing absence of Kashmiri representation in the Pakistan National Assembly, the fact that AJK is governed through the Ministry of Kashmir Affairs in Islamabad, that Pakistan officials dominate the Kashmir Council and that the Chief Secretary, the Inspector-General of Police, the Accountant-General and the Finance Secretary are all from Pakistan; abhors the provision in the 1974 Interim Constitution which forbids any political activity that is not in accordance with the doctrine of Jammu and Kashmir as part of Pakistan and obliges any candidate for a parliamentary seat in AJK to sign a declaration of loyalty to that effect; is concerned that the Gilgit-Baltistan region enjoys no form of democratic representation whatsoever;`

19. `Urges the EU to take a firm stance against the abomination of the Hudood Ordinances and to revisit, critically, the 3rd Generation Cooperation Agreement it signed with Pakistan in 2004, Article 1 of which states very clearly that the Agreement must be based on a true respect for human rights and the upholding of true democratic principles, given that it is pre-eminently clear that Pakistan is not living up to its commitments, especially in AJK;`

20. `Urges Pakistan to revisit its concept of democratic accountability, minority and women`s rights in AJK, which as elsewhere are key to improving conditions for the people and tackling the menace of terrorism;`

21. `Deplores documented human rights violations by the armed forces of India and the all too frequent incidents of terror and violence perpetrated by armed militant groups based in Pakistan; strongly urges both sides to do all they can to address these violations; welcomes Pakistan`s public commitments to curb infiltration across the LoC by militants operating out of territory under its control, but believes it must take much stronger and more effective measures; welcomes the continued and determined commitment by President Musharraf to fighting terrorism, which, it is widely recognized, presents enormous challenges; approves and supports multilateral and bilateral EU Member State aid to assist Pakistan in fighting terrorism and in making determined efforts to improve the lives of the people of AJK;`

22. `Recognises and supports the aspiration of the Kashmiri people for a significantly reduced military presence in the area; points out, however, that meaningful demilitarisation can only take place alongside genuine action to neutralise the threat of infiltration of Jammu and Kashmir by militant outfits operating out of Pakistan;`

23. `Notes that while Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir enjoys a unique status under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, granting it greater autonomy than other states in the Union, there remain deficiencies in practice with regard to human rights and direct democracy; is pleased, therefore, to see recent moves in Jammu and Kashmir to strengthen democracy (as evidenced by the 75% turnout in recent local elections); urges India`s National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) to exercise its full mandate with
regard to any suspected or documented violations and, to lend it even greater credibility, urges the NHRC to make good the absence of any human rights professionals on its governing board; looks forward to enhanced progress in this area, and to positive outcomes from the new laws on child labour and on women and violence;`

29. `Notes that Pakistan established a Federal Relief Commission within days of the disaster to coordinate search and rescue and relief operations; regrets, however, that Pakistan declined Indian offers of helicopters, on the grounds of their pilots` nationalities, as well as cross-LoC joint relief operations, medical relief teams and repair of telecom infrastructure, all of which could have significantly contributed to reducing casualties;`

31. `Highlights the fact that the initially hesitant reaction to the disaster by the Pakistani military created a needs vacuum in the immediate aftermath, which was exploited by militant organisations on the ground, such as the Jamaat-i-Islami, and Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the renamed Lakshar-e-Tayyaba (declared a terrorist organisation and, as such, banned by the Musharraf government in 2002), who swiftly became de facto providers of food, lodging, schooling for children and welfare for widows; is very concerned that this has bolstered the credibility of such polarising groups in the eyes of the local population, further undermining any potential for genuine democratic representation;`

32. `Urges the international community to use its massive reconstruction pledges to, among other things, support Pakistan`s democratic transition; is deeply concerned about corruption and especially recurring reports that these funds may be being diverted to support armed jihadi groups; urges the international donor community to do all it can to implement safeguards and to monitor closely the use of funds delivered;`

33. `Urges the EU and its institutions not to let the plight of the people of Jammu and Kashmir disappear from the radar screen and to ensure that aid and other programmes are designed and implemented with long-term recovery and institution-building in mind;`

35. `Believes it is vital to increase the frequency of cross-LoC exchanges at all levels of civil society and across all walks of life; suggests that exchange programmes be created between professional associations, schools and academics, including a common University with a campus on either side of the divide; to help reduce levels of mutual suspicion between the armies on either side, suggests that military-to-military contacts be initiated through exchanges between National Defence Colleges;`

37. `Encourages EU multinationals to recognise the investment potential of Jammu and Kashmir, and in particular the existence of a skilled, educated workforce on the Indian side; suggests that European businesses might enter into joint ventures with local companies and that investment insurance schemes be created to boost investor confidence;`

39. `Stresses that tourism has considerable potential to bolster the local economy; therefore encourages EU Governments to keep a close eye on the security situation, with a view to ensuring up-to-date, coordinated travel advice to those wishing to travel to Jammu and Kashmir;`

40. `Underlines that, as the EU`s own experience demonstrates, one of the keys to improving relations between countries is through increasing bilateral trade flows; believes that, in the case of Jammu and Kashmir, cross-LoC trade is particularly vital to generating economic growth, development and the unlocking of its economic potential; recommends that road and infrastructure projects be made a priority;`

41. `Warmly welcomes the forthcoming initiative to open a road trade route between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad; strongly encourages both sides to move rapidly to significant volumes of trade; urges swift agreement on the modalities of road freight, with an emphasis on simplifying them as far as possible;`

42. `Strongly supports continuing initiatives by the political establishments on both sides and at all levels and urges them to give priority to the needs of the people of Kashmir, both materially and institutionally, so that their political, economic, social and cultural disadvantages can be redressed; recommends that the EU be available to respond to requests from either government;`.This report, or for that matter any report, is not divine, and is subject to criticism and changes. We should compliment the EU for good points in this report, and request them to take certain things out and include our inherent right of self determination in it. Kashmir dispute for India and Pakistan could be issue of territory, strategic interest or enormous natural resources; but for us it is right of self which has been hitherto denied.

We Kashmiris should look at things as they are and not see things through the lenses provided by Islamabad or New Delhi. To write anything positive on this report at this time is asking for trouble, and my friends and well wishers advised me to stay out of this as Pakistani and pro Pakistan Kashmiris have been influenced by massive propaganda campaign against this report.

But I am what I am, always write what I thing is correct, and do not worry to go against the tide. And I hope that my readers and well wishers will take this submission in that light.

Dr Shabir Choudhry : Writer is Chairman Diplomatic Committee of JKLF, Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs and author of many books on Kashmir.

#172 by anil

Your desires are understandable but let us be realistic.

(1) The Kashmiri war was imposed on India by the Pakistani khakis. The Pakistanis have NEVER admitted the truth, nor their role, nor shown any desire to reform their thinking which led to this fiasco in the first place – because their whole basis for existence as a separate country is founded on that (faulty) foundation. Instead, the Pakistanis train jihadis, harbor smugglers, and recruit ISI agents all over India to carry out all kinds of atrocities. Only the khaki rulers of the Pure can stop that crap – perhaps it is now too late even for them, because the monsters that they have already set in motion do not lend themselves well to being recalled.

(2) It has NEVER made economic sense for the Pakistanis to be antagonistic toward India – not for one minute during the sixty years. Guess what?! They have maintained the antagonism – every minute of the sixty years! It’s not the economy, smart-sir!

(3) Kashmiriyat – when it did exist – was not the creature that your memory tells you now, perhaps based on wishful thinking. There was always a real religion-based divide. If that were not so, the Kashmiri Muslims would not sit on their tails while the Hindus were driven off – when they were not outright killed off! So the Hindus are not going back to the valley – not if they value their lives, and certainly not as long as they are able to rebuild new lives in the rest of India.

It is not within India’s powers to “restore” Kashmiriyat. That decorative piece was not robust and is now broken into shards and pumping all the money into that blasted land is not going to change the mindset of its asinine residents any more than a single Pakistani on this site has EVER shown!

It is rather difficult to sympathize with the “frustrations” of Indian Kashmiri youths when they have the option of moving to other parts of India whereas the truly frustrated youths of (say) Bihar have no such privilege to move to Kashmir!

Re: # 175

BJ:

“……. NEVER admitted the truth …. “

The Kashmir was partitioned the way Brits wanted. Please research and find out what I am writing here, British Chief of Staff of Pakistani army refused to take any further orders from M. A. Jinnah to march into the valley and Srinagar. British Chief of Staff of Indian army refused to order action until Pakistani army reached the ceasefire line. This shows how the Brits wanted to divide Kashmir. Just as India got Independence the way Brits wanted. It would be delusional to think Jinnah with his typewritter, and Gandhi thru his yatras and fasts alone secured Independence of India. Besides all this is irrelevant today.

Pakistan never accepted this partition of Kashmir for almost 60 years, but is now coming around to accepting it. India accepted Kashmir`s partition and defended it too. The good news is that Pakistan is coming around to accepting it, and future certainly looks brighter.

In the meantime, really, the search for the truth can be limited to religious nuts, lawyers, or when we are ready to go to Himalayas on vanprasth ashram. Till then the best is to deal with the maya (=perception) we live in.

“….. has NEVER made economic sense for the Pakistanis to be antagonistic toward India … “

Why not worry about what makes economic sense for India?

Today, it has a unique position in its 5,000 years of history, that includes 1,000 years of foreign rule. Let us not forget this. To strengthen its position, old thinking needs to be put aside, old rivalries need to recalculate for cost-benefit. New game plans need to be developed and executed. There are newer players, knowledge and resources that were not there before.

India and China are revaluating their old rivalries based new cost-benefit analysis. It is safe to factor for India in its strategic calculations that there will always be people in Pakistan, while enjoy Bollywood etc., will look for a straw of hope from Islamic nations and economies, at India`s expense. This does not mean that India should not recalculate india Pakistan rivalry.

Indian reliance on IPI can be no more than economic risks limited to investments and benefits from that pipeline. India cannot and I am sure will not allow the risks to be beyond it. So if India makes $3B investment, for example, in $9B project, only returns on it can be affected and not the rest of the economy. Alternate sources can be developed to ensure it, and cost of this alternate investment factored in the negotiating prices. Probably that is what is happening right now anyway. I certainly write an esaay pr more about this economic aspect.

Right now, if every 5 – 10 years India spends $600 per Indian-Kashmiri in Kashmir to have fireworks up someone’s ally. In additions numerous lives of others, including Indian-Biharis are also sacrificed. All this does not make sense in the present and future scenarios. Realistic solution may not be possible. Although I believe is no longer the case, Musharraff and Man Mohan are visionary enough to bring a closer. They know otherwise it will be another 50 years. In case, impossibility becomes the possibility, I have suggested the alternative.

…. “(3) Kashmiriyat – when it did exist –“

Yes, religious divides are here, and will remain here as long as we keep religion out of our personal mind space. This does not mean Kashmiriyat did not exist.

“It is not within India’s powers to “restore” Kashmiriyat. That decorative piece was not robust and is now broken into shards and pumping all the money into that blasted land …. “

India and Pakistan are pumping money and lives blasting that land, that I refuse to not call Indian-Kashmir. It is sad that it is “that blasted land for you.” Redirecting this investment, and building infrastructure to access to markets in rest of India, will bring “Kashmiriyat” back not only in “that blasted land”, but in you as well. This to me is India.

“It is rather difficult to sympathize with the “frustrations” of Indian Kashmiri youths when they have the option of moving to other parts of India whereas the truly frustrated youths of (say) Bihar have no such privilege to move to Kashmir!”

BJ, believe me no one is looking for sympathy, neither a Bihari youth nor a Kashmiri youth. Your difficulties notwithstanding. Youth, like any other Indian, including Indian-Kashmiri youth, want their fair share.

Implicit in such statements and “that blasted land” are your prejudices and concedes that Kashmir is really not India. This is sad, very sad for me to accept from a modern generation.

anil: dont take these ``debates`` so seriously. At best, it is a bunch of individuals chatting about politics. At worst, it is some half-brain writing the same rubbish for the millionth time on chowk.

Re: # 173

Happy holidays... Tahmed sahib

Anil

Hamidm Sahib:

In Kargil war, a very senior army officer, with knowledge of financing the war, told me that it was costing India $110 million a day to fight this war, besides the human casualties. I guess the number on the Pakistani side must be similar. If this war of attrition continues, and let us say that cost to India increases to $200 m per day, and such non-winnable wars last 30 days. It is $6B every five or ten years is blow up someone`s rear ally. Population of Indian Kashmir is 10 m. This is $600 per capita being blow up the rear ally, each time the war will be fought. I believe per capita expenditure on Pakistan Kashmir will be higher, due to lesser population, and say $1,000 per capita.

That is better than the per capita income of each country, Hamidm Sahib. If this money instead is invested as peace dividends in these parts, the tourisim and Kashmiri industries will provide greater prosperity without killing fields.

I am all for giving a chance to Kashmiriyat, and common sense to prevail among Indians and Pakistanis. Very few will doubt that Paksitanis with the present track record inside Pakistan, can be delivered the diversity of Indian Kashmir to run it better than however defective Indian democracy.

If the solution comes out from Pervez and Man-Mohan that is great, else India should fence the border and close for at least four or five generations, and get on with business. No doubt portion of spending will go toward maintaining closed border, and diverting Pakistani military`s attention toward Afghan and Balochistan.

India`s must restore Kashmiriyat, and make investments to develop Kashmiri economy. $600 per capita investment, sustained over five years will start the process. Many clean air IT industries, and IT enabled service industres, carpets, and woodwork can be marketed more aggressively in India and elsewhere. Indian market for carpets and woodwork will dwarf anything that can be exported.

This is the only way to counter frustrations of Indian Kashmiri youths. India cannot ignore them or let them be killed by their own troops under any circumstances. Hoping the clean will happen, in such scenario first, and development will follow, is a pipe-dream also.