An Unexpected Birthday Gift

``WASHINGTON, March 24: Chairman and three senior members of the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations have urged President Pervez Musharraf to ensure that the coming elections are open and free and the exiled leaders of the PPP and the PML-N are allowed to participate.

In a letter to President Musharraf, released to the media on Saturday, the four senators remind him that no democratic government can be credible without the protective check of a free press and urge him to order Pakistan’s security and intelligence agencies to stop harassing journalists.

The senators -– Joseph R. Biden, John F. Kerry, Patrick J. Leahy and Blanch L. Lincoln -– describe the coming year as “a crucial one” for Pakistan’s democratic development and for its relationship with the United States.

“Handled properly on both sides, the relationship has the potential for significant and sustained improvement,” say the senators, adding: “We believe that the US and Pakistan can and should be firm allies in the decades to come.”

But they warn that if this relationship “is handled improperly, the strides made by both our countries in recent years could well be imperilled.”

The senators say that they wrote this letter as supporters of the US-Pakistan relationship, adding that they understand “the complicated political pressures” to which the Musharraf government is subject but “given the enormous stakes” the US has in developments in Pakistan, “we feel it is appropriate to raise with you several issues of concern.”

The top on their list is the issue of “open elections and open government”.

As Pakistan prepares for upcoming elections, “we urge you to ensure that the Pakistan people can benefit from a robust democratic campaign and engage in open and vigorous debate about their political future,” the senators say.

They recall that the 2002 elections met “widespread international scepticism”, in particular concerning “the extensive involvement of the Pakistani military and intelligence agencies in the electoral process and in daily governance”.

They say that since those elections, they have received increasingly frequent reports of abuses such as arbitrary arrest and detention, mistreatment in custody and repression of journalist and political figures critical of the government.

The senators remind President Musharraf that he has often spoken publicly about Pakistan’s need for a vigorous, moderate democracy.

“The single most concrete measure of progress would be to allow all legitimate parties and candidates to contest the elections, including the senior leadership of the Pakistan People’s Party and the Pakistan Muslim League.

“Unless the leaders of Pakistan’s two oldest and most firmly established parties are free to return from exile and campaign for office, it will be difficult for the international community to regard the 2007 elections as a true expression of democracy.”(DAWN)

this is called Nuhlay pe Duhla -- poor Musharraf !

dost-mittar #64: ``But that is true of almost all Pakistani politicians starting with its founder; if Ayesha Jalal is to be believed, his brilliant tactics succeeded, but only in achieving something that he did not really want.``

......Most Pakistani politicians stay well ahead of the game......They are politicians after all....Look at the current crisis.....Not a single member of the ruling party has come out to support Musharraf.......Only the Law Minister and Information Minister are on TV, because they are being forced to........Where is the head of the party, Chaudhry Shujaat......Where are the remaining ministers.....etc........They are all ahead of the game, i.e. they have figured out the future and are now looking after their own interests......

.......The problem with Pakistani politicians is that they are corrupt and are only looking after the interests of certain cliques.......So they are not genuinely interested in progress in Pakistan......Hence, whether they stay ahead or behind the game, they will still do damage to Pakistan, if there isn`t a strong judiciary and press to keep a check on them......

......Musharraf`s case, in my opinion, was different.......I think he was sincere when he came on........And he was not corrupt........He still isn`t corrupt.......But he has lost his sincerity.......His personal career has become more important to him than the future of the country.........I suppose this is a different type of corruption from financial corruption.......Every move he is making is to ensure his own future at the expense of Pakistan.........I think he is in a state of full denial now.......I think he genuinely feels, like most Army generals, that he is the best thing for Pakistan.......This, along with his lack of political evolution will doom him.......

......While the remaining politicians will have, all, planned out a convenient exit for themselves.......They will dump Musharraf and leave him holding the bag......

As for the founder of Pakistan........He was the master strategician......Created a country out of nothing, but the sheer will of his character.......Took on the British, the Congress and the entrenched Pakistani feudals and maulvis single-handedly and defeated them.......The problem was he was too good at it and was way ahead of his time........No one could understand what he wanted.......However, in about fifty years or so, South Asians will realized that his idea of a lose federation of South Asia was the correct one.........

bulleya:

Yes, Musharraf does not stay ahead of the game. That requires vision and strategic thinking and he is primarily a tactician. But that is true of almost all Pakistani politicians starting with its founder; if Ayesha Jalal is to be believed, his brilliant tactics succeeded, but only in achieving something that he did not really want.

Re: dost-mittar # 61

Dost, the problem in Pakistan is not necessarily one of evolving with the times, but as Bulleya rightly identified as one of leaving the seat of power. If Musharraf stays and learns from this mistake, there would be have been no evolution but only an adjustment. However, I will give credit to Musharraf in the sense that he is a rare Pakistani politican who seems to really respond to public opinion and though he may have been proven wrong in his judgements, he has the good sense to apologise for his errors.

Ciao

dost-mittar #61: `` believe that Musharraf has shown a capacity to evolve.`

If a politician is to evolve, they need to be ahead of the game......not behind it.......Musharraf has only evolved, when he was forced into it and had no other option......That can only work so much, for someone in a political position........It would be like saying that Bush has evolved on Iraq and is no longer looking for a military solution......Or that the US public has evolved on Iraq and has voted in the Democrats......

None of these are evolutions........There was no other option left, and hence the decisions were forced........

.......Politicians who only evolve when they are forced to, after the fact, will eventually lock themselves into a corner........They will lose goodwill and any exits.......The fact that Musharraf locked up the CJ of a country, actually, shows how little he has evolved.......He did so after seven years in a political position.......Had he evolved, he would not have made such a blunder........

.......This is an indication that he has actually not evolved, at all.......Now he is backtracking, once again, after facing opposition.........Not because of evolution.......Previously, he was able to get out of such situations, because he still had some goodwill in the people.......And was still the, ``better alternative``.......

........To evolve, he would need to get ahead of the game......i.e. realize that his goose is cooked......So he should not ask to be re-elected by this assembly.......He should give up his uniform, voluntarily, before he is forced to do so..........And then move on with life outside politics, after the coming elections........

.......I have a strange feeling he will only do the above, if he is forced to.........Not because he has evolved.........

bulleya#52:

I believe that Musharraf has shown a capacity to evolve. From an architect of Kargil, he has now come to understand that there is no military solution to the Kashmir problem. He learnt from the reaction to the fake referendum and used more clever manipulation of political parties rather than rigging the general elections later.

It would be great if the Pakistani judiciary can show its backbone but so far we have only a solitary example; and here, too, the bravery shown by the judge is to save his own position and not in the interest of safeguarding the constitution. But Musharraf`s retraction should have made them bolder and they might show some independence which would be all for the better.

majumdar51:

``But the alternative model often proposed- an authoritarian regime (military or otherwise) bringing about substantial economic growth and then an energised middle class forcing a change into democratic system- has not worked smoothly either``

Authoritarian model does not always work. In my opinion, it works only if the social structure is rigid and literacy levels are low. The other essential ingredient is that the people on the top must be themselves honest and intelligent. Tanzania had a honest leader in Julius Nyere but he followed wrong policies, so Tanzania remained poor.

It is true that Pakistan`s military leadership has benefitted from fortuitous external developments but this was also true of civilian leadership. They too had exploited Western fears of extremists and sought the US aid claiming that they were the only thing standing between stability and chaos of extremists.

#57 by bjkumar

Pakistan has had many who talk the talk (starting right at the very top in the form of the old TB-infected crook Jinnah), very few who walk the walk. Yasser is another one in the long, illustrious line of talkers.

But really, my heart goes out to those who are courageously taking on the Paki establishment. Only those people can make a difference, not the self-important and pompous Yassers.

#57 was in response to #56

#46 Harish

It IS rather funny how some people can actually put their necks on line - taking punishment from the khakis and their goons...

...while others head straight for .... wherever the limelight maybe!

With such dedicated ``saviors`` around, that country ought to have it all made!

If only...wishes were flying horses and not defecating donkeys!

#55 by bjkumar

Feel free to go bust your own head on the policewalla`s lathi instead of merely cheerleading others!

Yasser`s chances of going to jail are about as high as the chances of discovering that Jinnah spent some time in jail.

#48 Mantolives (add-on)

Before I forget...

Feel free to go bust your own head on the policewalla`s lathi instead of merely cheerleading others!

#48 by Mantolives

Ama Yasser, looks like that BBC spotlight proved too much for you and went straight to your head and it dazzled your eyes! And now that it has moved on – leaving you in pitch darkness again, you are getting miffed! So you bring in the names of third parties having nothing to do with this bored! (BTW: we won’t even mention Wikipedia’s well-substantiated charges of vandalism – for which a certain no-good lawyer-type was taken to task by those people!)

And talking of BBC, what stopped you from speaking out aloud on BBC – when the moment was just in your favor, when the whole world was listening, when you had the mike – what stopped you from saying:

“Hey BBC waalon, listen to me…

That Mahatma was no good! Listen to me – me the momentous Manto! Mahatma baad, Jinnah goooood!

These lawyers in the streets – they are following that path of the Jinnah….not the Mahatma!

Those people getting beaten up with lathis… hey, they are doing exactly what the Jinnah did….not what the Mahatma did!

Those ladies in black coats, yup, the ones being manhandled – and being dragged off to jail-carts, yeah- they are doing exactly what Jinnah did – on a day in and day out basis – like all those days Jinnah spent in the jail – oops, scratch that!”

Yasser, my dear, you missed out big time, because you chickened out big time, so now you are MIFFED big time!

Anyway, based on your #31, I stand by what I said earlier and reiterate it – this time in bold letters so even YOU can understand it.

#31 Manto Lives
Yasser, my dear, there is nothing wrong with your sense of humor!

Re: # 47

Makes no difference to me as long as the nation accepts the consequences for its actions and stops blaming the CIA-RAW-Zionist conspiracy for its problems.

Now whether, Benazir Bhutto or Nawaz Sharif also agree that institutions are more important than personalities is another matter. If the nation is willing to take the chance, I have no objections since I believe that democracy is the right to make the wrong choice and then, to have the opportunity to correct it.

However, the question still remains whether the choice will be allowed or will the choice mean that the army will once more step in and correct the mistake only to compound the mistake?

Ciao

Dost-Mittar #49: ``I also believe that he should be allowed to stay on for another 2-3 years so that he can navigate Pakistan through the really murky waters that lie ahead.``
When deciding between and/or amongst people, issues and ideas etc., the main criteria should always be: what are the alternatives.......If I can make 15% on a stock in one year, it would seem like a great deal.......However, if the alternative is a 25% gain, then it is actually a bad deal.......The opportunity cost is quite high on 15% in this case.......

Every idea, person, issue has a lifespan.....Ideas can be re-interpreted......However, individuals cannot......Similarly, as time passes, certain ideas and individuals age well with time......Others start decaying.......

Everyone in Pakistan fully supported Musharraf`s coup (including me).....After that they supported him for three years (including me).......Then the referendum occured, and people started noticing the decay (including me)......They still stuck with him, because the alternatives (BB and NS) were worse, and because the economy was improving.......
However, Musharraf has made one critical mistake in his analysis........He has assumed that people supported the coup, because they liked him.......When, in fact, people supported the coup, because they hated NS.......Even if a monkey had kicked out NS, they would have supported the monkey (I would have also)......

From that point onwards, I am afraid Musharraf has not been able to evolve........Much of it is due to his army upbringing......By the time a person becomes a general in the Pakistan army, he is convinced he is the cream of the crop........Not only the Army crop, but the national crop........This is still evident in Musharraf`s comments, when, again and again, he goes back to Army terminologies........I topped my courses in the military, and as a Lieutenant, I, not only thought I was the brightest guy in the military, I thought I was the brightest guy in all of Pakistan......More due to my lack of exposure than anything else.....Musharraf still thinks that and this is his biggest achilles heel......

After meeting a lot of Generals in various branches in the Pakistan military, I am convinced that none of them can evolve, at a core level, beyond their military training......If Musharraf cannot do it, then I doubt others can, because Musharraf, as a person, has a family background, which gave him more exposure than most military officers.......

Pakistan is, now, once again in a situation, where everything is being done for one person, where the liabilities outweight the benefits........The public did not react, on the calls of the politicians against this, because they calculated that the politicians were equally bad and would do the same thing........However, they have reacted when the CJ and judiciary are involved.......They have, now, seen an alternative which is better than Musharraf.........In this case, it is a 180 degree turnaround......It is not, as such, a hatred of Musharraf, as much as an appearance of a better alternative, i.e. an independent judiciary..........

Some people will always remain addicted to Musharraf because their vision of progress is limited to saris and fashion models and secularism.........Much like some people will remain addicted to MMA because their vision of progress will always be limited to hijabs and beards and religious politics........However, these items are superficial.......Real progress is something else.......

Real progress is an independent media and an independent judiciary........This is the next step in the evolution of Pakistan........Which is now occuring.......And people have responded.......Had Musharraf jailed BB again, I doubt the lawyers or too many others would be in the streets........The CJ is a different story......

This CJ is going to be around till 2014 or so......Assuming he gets acquitted.......The future of the country will thus be in his hands........If he takes on everyone like he has taken on Musharraf, then it doesn`t matter if Pakistan gets BB or NS or anyone else........The judiciary will keep them in check........However, if he starts thinking that he is a hero and not just the, ``better alternative,`` then Pakistan will be back to square one.........

I had always stated that Musharraf should have cleaned house and left after three years......He would have been hailed as a hero in Pakistan.....I knew if he did not leave, he would go down in disgrace........And he is well on his way for that........Even now, the average guy doesn`t, ``hate`` him, like many hated Zia (or BB or NS)..........But another year or so, and he will reach that stage........

So he needs to plan a graceful exit........He should give up his uniform........Finish off his term.........And then move on.........He may want to move to Boston, because there are a lot of Al-Qaeda who are after him......And after what he has done to various politicians (threatening and jailing them etc.), there will be some politicians after his head also........He needs to get ahead of the situation........He has lost this battle, and based on this cannot win any more (even if he allows every girl in Pakistan to wear a bikini or changes his name to Mustapha Kamal Musharraf).......

As they say, one should always leave, when others are asking, ``Why did he leave?`` Not when others are saying, ``Why doesn`t he leave?``..........

Pakistan`s biggest need is not for the right person to get into power........It`s biggest need is for someone to leave power gracefully and voluntarily, thereby setting an example.......Musharraf has lost the opportunity of a graceful exit....He still has about six months to a year for a voluntary one.......

DM sahib,

(I do not believe in democracy as a virtue in itself but try to judge its effectiveness as a form of governance; it`s good if it delivers on that front and not so good if it does not deliver. )

That is a fair point. Democracies don’t always deliver or deliver enuff, India is a good example in point where 50 + years of democracy hasn’t solved substantial social or economic problems. But the alternative model often proposed- an authoritarian regime (military or otherwise) bringing about substantial economic growth and then an energised middle class forcing a change into democratic system- has not worked smoothly either. For every successful example- Chile, S Korea- you would have less successful examples like Phillipines, Pakistan.

( it seems to me that Pakistan has done better for itself during military rules than during rules by populous leaders.)

In economic terms, yes. But Pakistan has also entered into and lost two disastrous wars and had itself cut into two during military rule. Besides, while military regimes- Ayub, Zia, Mush have brought in substantially better economic growth it is by no means certain that it was entirely because of the regimes own efforts or because of fortuitious circumstances. The regimes of all three rulers have coincided with periods of rapid growth internationally too. Zia benefited from Cold War and jehad (although it was to have substantial negative effects which was not clear then) and Mush benefited from 9/11 (Western assitance, Arab money searching safe havens.

(But Musharraf is, after all, a dictator and his first job is to keep himself in power)

Precisely. And in the process may end up doing long-term damages. And the problem with dictatorships are that what happens if he is removed. The whole system may collapse.

(I also believe that he should be allowed to stay on for another 2-3 years so that he can navigate Pakistan through the really murky waters that lie ahead. )

Pakistan would face murky waters for years, maybe decades. Partly because of its own misdeeds, partly for no faults of its own. With the result, that that day when Mush can leave his uniform may never come.

(Pakistani civil society is very fickle.)

So are most others. At least for once it should be given an extended chance.

Regards