An Unexpected Birthday Gift

#31 Manto Lives

Dear Yasser,

In the past, I have been criticised by others for dealing with you rather harshly and occasionally unfairly and also for not accentuating your positive virtues enough. Kindly allow me to address the last issue right now.

Dear Yasser, there is nothing wrong with your sense of humor! :)

#30 by rahul_capri on March 21, 2007 2:30am PT

“ I am puzzled by one thing. If the CJ had to be taken out, why the highhandedness?”

Though Feroz has taken a stab at this but here is how I think the whole drama was played out.

The Mush admin knew what the CJ was doing and they were getting ready to act against him. They were setting up the ground way before the confrontation.

I hope you have seen Naeem Bukharis’ letter. Naeem was an assistant to S M Zafar, a major Army Lawyer at par with Sharif Pirzada. Naeem was also Zafar’s BIL after marrying Zafar’s Sali Tahira Syed the famous Singer and Malika Pukhraj’s daughter. Btw, Naeem Bukhari’s Brother Salim Altaf is CEO of the Pakistan cricket board and played for Pakistan Cricket team in the 70s. Naeem became the conduit to create a case against the CJ. Naeem is not intelligent or political enough to get in to this. I think the letter was drafted by S M Zafar and Naeem just signed it.

The Mush admin also asked the Sindh govt and to make a case against the CJ. They also got a reference from the Peshawar high court. So they had the case ready all they had to do was send the reference to the Judicial Council quietly. If they had done so,the onus would have been on the CJ. The CJ would have had no choice but to step down until the case is resolved. Instead of taking this civilized road the Mush admin ended up making a spectacle out of this.

My read is that when Mush met CJ, and the CJ refused to resign, Mush got angry and in a typical army fit of anger decided to throw him out or cut him to size right away. There was no need for suspending the CJ or putting him under house arrest. Mush made a bad judgment call.
I would call that a typical army officer’s way of handling political issues when they act first and think later.

Without raising the parochial flag, I would also say that in the subcontinent Punjabi, Upian and Bengali have short tempers and often are not very good thinkers off their feet. A sindhi would have taken his time thinking through the whole thing and then would have stayed with the plan. Mushy in a typical show of power lost the whole game plan.

A word of caution here to Manto and Feroz. Don’t have high expectations about Rana Bhagwan Das. He is a consummate politician and will play his cards. There is a serious opposition to his becoming the CJ in the army. No doubt, he is a smart person but also full of himself.

``The problem with Pakistan`s judiciary has actually been in not removing civilian leaders......Had NS been removed by the Supreme Court, then the coup would never have happened.......Now that Musharraf could be seriously restricted and weakened by the Judiciary, it is imperative on the judiciary to take BB and Zardari to task also......Kick them out as well........``(bulleya)

Between the Judiciary and the Dictator -- what happened to the National Assembly called also the parliament -- in elitist Pakistan?

I wish the Judiciary could remove OUR George of the Jungle -- then the Judiciary could rule USA forever -- and we wouldn`t have to pay the insufferable congressmen and women -- but then again come to think of it the Judiciary did install George in 2000!

#6 by Urstruly,

I think scenario #2 is plausible.

Ferozek #34: ``Lastly; BB should come back and stand trial and this way show her respect for an independence judiciary and judicial system in Pakistan. If she comes back and pressures the courts to drop the cases against her, then you might as well kiss judicial independence in Pakistan a final good-bye.``

This is a very central point........if BB is allowed to come back, have all the charges dropped against her and become PM again, then Pakistan will never have an independent judiciary........It might as well continue with Musharraf then, if you ask me........Because, rest assured, BB`s rule will be back to the days of Bonnie and Clyde level corruption.......She and the PPP have ten years of corruption to make up for, and they will definitely make up for it......

The problem with Pakistan`s judiciary has actually been in not removing civilian leaders......Had NS been removed by the Supreme Court, then the coup would never have happened.......Now that Musharraf could be seriously restricted and weakened by the Judiciary, it is imperative on the judiciary to take BB and Zardari to task also......Kick them out as well........

The above, by the way, will be the best thing to have happened to PPP.......I talked with some of their senior leaders.......I was surprised to see, deep down inside, how much they dislike her.......They cannot ditch her, becasue the Bhutto name is still strong......and they are nothing without the Bhutto name.......But they do realize how much she has destroyed the PPP......

Expecting a lifetime president of a poltiical party to establish democracy is like expecting a military dictator to establish democracy........It is a philosophical contradiction, anomaly and impossibility........A BB/Musharraf deal of, ``excusing each other`` will dent Pakistan forever.....All of these recent events will, thus, be worth nothing if the judiciary is again pressurised to bring BB up again..........

PPP will get the most seats in the elections, in my opinion.....But not enough to form a govt......They will have to form alliances......PPP has some good people in it, if they can get BB to move aside.....She is now setting the stage for Bilawal to take over the party after her.....Not my words, but the words of a PPP leader.......

........Aitezaz Ahsan of PPP will make a very good PM..........As will Yusuf Raza Gillani of PPP(he was recently released after being in jail for four years, without a trial).......Imran Khan would make a good President, but he does not have the political backing.......All three are from Punjab though.......

Interestingly, I talked with politicians of different parties, and again and again, the above three names kept coming up in the category of, ``good`` politicians........Another name was that of Junejo......I was surprised to see how highly other politicians thought of him......

Majumdar...

A judge is removed under article 209 of the Constitution by the Supreme Judicial Council... after a reference is filed against the judge by the President of the Republic...

Clearly this is not an ideal situation for the SJC is susceptible to political pressure. I like the 2/3rds idea much better.

The current unrest in Pakistan is certainly a positive development and it is much to be hoped that this will end dictatorship in Pak ala Bdesh (1990) and Nepal (2006). Although personally I am not too sure of that. For three reasons:

One, the unrest seems to largely involve the media and legal professions, not the general public unlike Nepal/Bdesh.
Two, history. Military rule has been removed only on two occassions- 1971 (after a disastrous war against India) and in 1988 (after assassination of Zia). Given that both India and Pak are N-powers, that is hardly a very sobering reflection.
Thirdly, unlike the two other cases were USA had little interest, in Pak there may be vested interest on USA`s part in keeping Mush in power ``after us, the Al-Qaeda`` mentality.

Feroze,

In case free and fair elections are held in Pak, I would tend to agree with you and disagree with Manto mian on the outcome- there could be a hung parliament in Pak as you have suggested. Which is not necessarily a bad thing as India has had hung parliaments and coalition govts. since 1989 without anyone being worse off for that.

Manto mian,

Constitutionally waht is the procedure for removing a judge in Pak. Just for curiosity`s sake. Pretty difficult in India to remove someone like a judge (or Election Commissioner etc.) as it requires impeachment proceedings to be backed by 2/3 of both houses of Parliament. To the best of my knowledge no one has been impeached so far.

Regards

Feroz,

All the indications are that Bhutto has American backing... As for 1996... yes... she was in power but remember back then it had American blessing...

Please refer to her statements to the media from last week... regarding the taliban threat.

Re: Mantolives # 31

Very interesting and if I may add, plausible points.

Plausible in the following sense:

1. The restoration of the CJP by SJC is not so easy and if HP is correct in his thesis that nothing happens without the consent of the army, then CJP being restored to his former status is not an option. A more likely course would be a compromise; CJP resigns in the ``interest of the judiciary`` and the government hails the ``independence`` of the judiciary as an established fact of Pakistani politics. In that case, Justice Rana Bhagwan Das becomes the next CJP of Pakistan and the government milks this fact to repair the damage done to its image and re-state Pakistan`s credentials as a moderate nation along the lines of ``enligthened moderation``.

2. Possible, but only if it has autonomous elections and its head is not appointed by the executive.

3. Elections will happen this year, but fair and free elections are not a certainity. Free and fair elections cannot be allowed till and unless Musharraf has managed his re-election to another presidential term. If Musharraf allows himself to be elected by the new assemblies, then that means PML-Q has to be in the majority in the next assembly and given its present political graph, that is not is not certainity.

4. PPP will carry Sindh and PML-Q will most likely carry Punjab. NWFP and Baluchistan are MMA favorites and even in Sindh, PPP will have to share power between MQM (urban areas) and itself (rural areas). Remember the demographics in NWFP and Baluchistan. PML-N might get into power because the next government might/could be a minority government and Pakistan would see another coalition government.

5. Possible, but BB might not allow this since her personality rule over PPP does not allow for anyone to shine in PPP or national politics that ends up diminishes BB`s own political star.

6. Yes; but not an independent civilian president as Musharraf cannot risk the consequences.

7. No. Not a strong possibility.

8. Musharraf will not step down as COAS in 2008 because his real power comes from his position as COAS; he might forego the presidency if pushed but not his hold over the military. Ayub Khan did the same, when he retained the presidency and made Yahya Khan the COAS and Yahya ened up forcing Ayub out.

9. Fresh offensive against Taliban with BB is a concern because it was her government and her own Minister of Defense that supported the Taliban when they first took power in 1996 and the US might be more interested in a military government than a civilian one as long as the war in Afghanistan continues.

Lastly; BB should come back and stand trial and this way show her respect for an independence judiciary and judicial system in Pakistan. If she comes back and pressures the courts to drop the cases against her, then you might as well kiss judicial independence in Pakistan a final good-bye.

Right now, Pakistan needs a respect for the process no matter how flawed it is than for short-cuts no matter how popular the short-cuts might be.

Looking forward to replies/feedbacks. :)

Ciao

This afternoon, I was watching the news and every news channel in Pakistan was trying to get a comment from Justice Bhagwan Das, but he refused to answer their questions. According to Aaj TV, his reasons were that since he was on a foreign soil, he would not comment on events in his nation lest his remarks be taken out of context.

This is how a judge is supposed to act! I respect for Justice Bhagwan Das for maintaining an impartiality of views and respecting his office and his responsibilities by not commenting on the matter.

In this case, it should be further noted that according to a newspaper, The Daily Times (I believe), the bar associations are requesting Justice Chaudhry to address them and this is wrong! The one area where I think that goverment has a solid point is that since the matter is sub judice, there should be no trial in the media or any attempts to make political capital out of this situation.

If the lawyers allow this constitutional question to become a political football, then they have only themselves to blame because the public opinion will see as another opportunistic ploy. The sight of PPP`s party flag flying on CJP`s car, on GEO, and the sight of PPP flags inside the premises of the Supreme Court in Islamabad were sickening.

The government had over reacted; the media has over reacted in thinking that since the president apologised to them, they are vindicated and now the lawyers are over reacting. What the crisis needs is moderation otherwise Mantolives` fear that the extremists would take over might well be the most prophetic statement on the crisis.

Ciao

Re: rahul_capri# 30

Rahul, the whole situation was badly judged by the government. According to a British newspaper, The Guardian, the CJP was called to the President`s Camp Office and confronted with the charges and told to resign. When the CJP did not; the process was started and in this, the government misjudged the reaction.

There were distinct phases to this crisis. From March 9, 2007 till the attack on GEO offices, the government was trying to get its point of view across, but the message muddled because there was coordination between the government officals representing the government of view. This was made worse by the detailed and logical questions of the press and the sequential manner in which the press was building a time-line of the crisis. After the attack on GEO, the government went into ``damage management and repair`` and that President Musharraf`s interview to GEO marked the start of this phase.

As to the police, never underestimate the capacity of the police in Pakistan to over react and be more loyal than the king. The lathi charge was a pure case of police over-reaction and of a bad command and control situation resulting from confusion and again, a lack of proper coodination. Under the new Devolution Plan of Musharraf government and the new Police Ordinance 2002, the heirarchy of police in Pakistan and its system of functioning has been changed. Prior to this change, a civilian District Magistrate used to be charge and only he could order a police response to a situation. Under the present scenrio, the police is under the control of local bodies representatives - nazims - and in the case of Lahore, the nazim of Lahore was apprently in Gulberg and not on the scene as he should have been.

The point is that Lahore police over reacted, because it did not have clear instructions and it did not have a final authority, present on the scene, who could have controlled it. As always happens in Pakistan, the police took this confused situation and tried to make its own bonus points with the administration and in order to prove itself more loyal than the king, went overboard in its responses.

Rahul, in Pakistan, when a policeman is confronted with a situation that he does not understand, he invaribly panics and in his panic, he does only thing that he understands and that is the use of force. Please do not read too much into the police actions, because they were reflective of panic, confusion, zeal, poor training, weak command and control and the basic semi-literate education of a policeman. They all conspired to create a deadly cocktail of stupidity in the police behavior.

The government did not want to create a situation, because with Pakistan in an election year, any governmental action that might cause unrest would be automatically tied to the delay in elections. The government`s concern in this matter would be the internationa press, which if it got a whiff of an engineered crisis, would crucify the government.

Yes; it could all be better handled, but then again, with amateurs running the show one should not expect professional results.

Ciao

Here is the chain of events I think would occur and should occur …

1. The Chief Justice will be restored by the SJC.

2. The election commission will become independent consequently.

3. Free and fair elections will happen at the end of this year.

4. PPP will win the elections and form the government. PML-N, PTI, ANP and MMA shall form the combined opposition.

5. Aitzaz Ahsan shall be the PM till Benazir comes back, is elected and is eligible through an amendment to be the Prime Minister.

6. New Assemblies will elect new civilian president.

7. Musharraf will hand over power to new civilian president but will not step down as Military chief till later.

8. Military will back the new dispensation. Musharraf will step down as COAS in 2008.

9. Fresh offensive against talibanisation by Benazir backed by the US.

#29HP I am puzzled by one thing. If the CJ had to be taken out, why the highhandedness? He was treated like an ordinary criminal. Then, the lawyers were subjected to lathi charge and the govt dint wait for the next most senior judge to come back.Then taking TV channels off the air.
It seems like the govt wanted to created a situation of unrest.Could not a lot of this had been avoided if the suspension was handled in a more astute manner? It almost seems to be staged.

#25 by fuzair

“which element in the Army was trying to stage the palace-coup? Presumably the pro-US faction?”

No Fuzair, it has to be the Jammat Islami group in the army. CJ Sajjad is a long story and I would refer you to the wiki link for more details but it was clear that Sajjad was someone’s proxy. Here is a little something for you “A 3 member bench headed by Chief Justice Sajjad Ali Shah suspended the operation of the Thirteenth Amendment restoring the powers of the president to dissolve the National Assembly, a verdict which was within minutes set aside by another 10-member bench.The 10-member bench headed by Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui granted stay against the chief justice`s order minutes after it was passed, even without receiving any formal petition or the copy of the order..”
Please read more details here. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sajjad_Ali_Shah

Why the army did not protect him? It was a little beyond the army after Nawaz henchmen had already taken him out from the SC. The question was how far the army could go and the way the situation was at that time, Army had no choice but to back down. Interesting part is that I don’t recall any major protests by the lying Lawyers after what took place in SC on that fateful day. If I am not wrong, Karamat too was dispatched out of the army house soon after by Nawaz, probably the only act of bravery by a Pakistani politician. Even the Grand Master Bhutto told his daughter to never confront the army and she is still faithfully following her father’s deathbed advice.

Pakistan politics is army’s politics and you underestimate the army if you are not able to grasp the iron grip army had over Pakistani politics. So expecting that a CJ was acting on his own in the interest of Justice is simplistic. All movers and shakers in Pakistan move and shake after they get cues from the army.

All pointers suggest that it was the Jammat/Taliban group in the army that was behind the CJ. First, the Jamaat went on protesting about the missing Jihadis and terrorists and then the CJ comes out and interferes in a political issue on behalf of Jamaat and in support of jihadis. Why? He could have possibly asked the law enforcement to help find the missing Jihadi but he tried to take over the whole process. He acted unconstitutionally.

Personally, if this whole drama results in the weakening of the army I am all for it. Any political movement in Pakistan that pushes the army back should be welcomed but until and unless smaller provinces take part in a political movement, Pakistan will not see democracy or constitutional rule. It is quiet obvious now that mushy has to go and temporarily, we may see some civilian take over but eventually it will again be the Army running the show.


It is show time in Pakistan. Faces and actors may change, the macabre drama never changes.

actually, i need to add one more thing.......

there have been two unprecendented events in the past 18 months.....the second was the current, ``uprising`` by the lawyers and journalists, with moral support from the general public.......the first was the, ``uprising`` by the general public during the earthquake, with moral support from the journalists and the lawyers......

and the economy is doing really well......(and the models are now wearing mini skirts in fashion shows!)

not bad!......but still a long long way to go.....

i think pakistan is at roughly 40% democracy at the moment......

in the present day world, there are four pillars of democracy: executive, legislature, judiciary, and (due to the information age) press.....the current situation, in my opinion, has one of these pillars completely free....that pillar is the press.....the fact that the president shut down a tv news show and then had to start it up again and apologize on it, is unprecendented.....previous govts. could shut down whole newspapers and tv channel(s) without blinking......i dont` think the media can be rolled back now in pakistan.....it will, in fact get even more bold.........so that is the 25% of democracy.....

.......the judiciary is half free.......it has two parts: the bar and the bench.....the bar is free.....it has taken on the legislative and executive (and army) and has defeated it on the streets of pakistan (with the help of the press)......the only question that remains is whether the benches free......theoretically, the benches have always been free, however they have never had the courage to take on the executive and legislature like the press and bar have done......if they rule in favor of their cj, the judiciary will be well on its way to freedom........so this is the remaining 15%, with ten percent left......

.....in a parliamentary system, the legislature and executive are tied at the hip......the head of the legislature becomes the executive........at least that is how it is supposed to work.......however, in pakistan, it works the other way around.....someone becomes the executive and then makes the legislature completely subordinate to him/her......doesn`t matter if the executive is from the military or the civilian side.....

.....the executive and legislature in pakistan are thus never interested in democracy.....they are interested in forwarding their own corrupt and opportunistic interests.....hence they are always ready to make a deal with each other to ensure they can loot the country......be it martial law or through elections......due to this, it is always in the interests of these two pillars, to ensure that the press and judiciary are never free....these two pillars will, thus, never be interested in democracy.........they will have to be forced to accept it, kicking and screaming.......bb is as much of a dictator as musharraf.....musharraf is financially honest but constitutionally corrupt......bb has been financially corrupt, but constitutionally (relatively) honest.......both can be prosecuted.......but in the end, both will bail each other out......bb will make a deal with musharraf who will excuse her financial corruption.......while bb will excuse musharraf`s constitutional corruption.......both these deals will be done at the expense of pakistan, as a country.....

........in such a scenario, the responsibilty lies with the judiciary and press to control the executive and legislature........perhaps at a later stage, voters will be able to control the legislature and thus the executive through free and fair elections......but that is a while away.........

the ideal scenario would be for the sjc to acquit the cj.......the cj to then take on musharraf and force him to be a civlian president, with no further terms.........the cj to then not allow bb to make a deal and to then prosecute her on corruption charges and to kick her out also (as well as any other politicians)............along with this elections to be held monitored by a free press and judiciary.......

so any pakistani hoping for the legislature (read political parties) and/or executive (read army) to bring in democracy will be disappointed......these two will do their best to ensure democracy does not come in, with or without elections......

the hope is with the other two pillars........and this current incidence(s) is a watershed point in pakistan`s history in that this is the first time the press and judiciary have taken on the executive and legislature and have actually won........