An Unexpected Birthday Gift

This afternoon, I was watching the news and every news channel in Pakistan was trying to get a comment from Justice Bhagwan Das, but he refused to answer their questions. According to Aaj TV, his reasons were that since he was on a foreign soil, he would not comment on events in his nation lest his remarks be taken out of context.

This is how a judge is supposed to act! I respect for Justice Bhagwan Das for maintaining an impartiality of views and respecting his office and his responsibilities by not commenting on the matter.

In this case, it should be further noted that according to a newspaper, The Daily Times (I believe), the bar associations are requesting Justice Chaudhry to address them and this is wrong! The one area where I think that goverment has a solid point is that since the matter is sub judice, there should be no trial in the media or any attempts to make political capital out of this situation.

If the lawyers allow this constitutional question to become a political football, then they have only themselves to blame because the public opinion will see as another opportunistic ploy. The sight of PPP`s party flag flying on CJP`s car, on GEO, and the sight of PPP flags inside the premises of the Supreme Court in Islamabad were sickening.

The government had over reacted; the media has over reacted in thinking that since the president apologised to them, they are vindicated and now the lawyers are over reacting. What the crisis needs is moderation otherwise Mantolives` fear that the extremists would take over might well be the most prophetic statement on the crisis.

Ciao

Here is the chain of events I think would occur and should occur …

1. The Chief Justice will be restored by the SJC.

2. The election commission will become independent consequently.

3. Free and fair elections will happen at the end of this year.

4. PPP will win the elections and form the government. PML-N, PTI, ANP and MMA shall form the combined opposition.

5. Aitzaz Ahsan shall be the PM till Benazir comes back, is elected and is eligible through an amendment to be the Prime Minister.

6. New Assemblies will elect new civilian president.

7. Musharraf will hand over power to new civilian president but will not step down as Military chief till later.

8. Military will back the new dispensation. Musharraf will step down as COAS in 2008.

9. Fresh offensive against talibanisation by Benazir backed by the US.

Re: Mantolives # 31

Very interesting and if I may add, plausible points.

Plausible in the following sense:

1. The restoration of the CJP by SJC is not so easy and if HP is correct in his thesis that nothing happens without the consent of the army, then CJP being restored to his former status is not an option. A more likely course would be a compromise; CJP resigns in the ``interest of the judiciary`` and the government hails the ``independence`` of the judiciary as an established fact of Pakistani politics. In that case, Justice Rana Bhagwan Das becomes the next CJP of Pakistan and the government milks this fact to repair the damage done to its image and re-state Pakistan`s credentials as a moderate nation along the lines of ``enligthened moderation``.

2. Possible, but only if it has autonomous elections and its head is not appointed by the executive.

3. Elections will happen this year, but fair and free elections are not a certainity. Free and fair elections cannot be allowed till and unless Musharraf has managed his re-election to another presidential term. If Musharraf allows himself to be elected by the new assemblies, then that means PML-Q has to be in the majority in the next assembly and given its present political graph, that is not is not certainity.

4. PPP will carry Sindh and PML-Q will most likely carry Punjab. NWFP and Baluchistan are MMA favorites and even in Sindh, PPP will have to share power between MQM (urban areas) and itself (rural areas). Remember the demographics in NWFP and Baluchistan. PML-N might get into power because the next government might/could be a minority government and Pakistan would see another coalition government.

5. Possible, but BB might not allow this since her personality rule over PPP does not allow for anyone to shine in PPP or national politics that ends up diminishes BB`s own political star.

6. Yes; but not an independent civilian president as Musharraf cannot risk the consequences.

7. No. Not a strong possibility.

8. Musharraf will not step down as COAS in 2008 because his real power comes from his position as COAS; he might forego the presidency if pushed but not his hold over the military. Ayub Khan did the same, when he retained the presidency and made Yahya Khan the COAS and Yahya ened up forcing Ayub out.

9. Fresh offensive against Taliban with BB is a concern because it was her government and her own Minister of Defense that supported the Taliban when they first took power in 1996 and the US might be more interested in a military government than a civilian one as long as the war in Afghanistan continues.

Lastly; BB should come back and stand trial and this way show her respect for an independence judiciary and judicial system in Pakistan. If she comes back and pressures the courts to drop the cases against her, then you might as well kiss judicial independence in Pakistan a final good-bye.

Right now, Pakistan needs a respect for the process no matter how flawed it is than for short-cuts no matter how popular the short-cuts might be.

Looking forward to replies/feedbacks. :)

Ciao

#29HP I am puzzled by one thing. If the CJ had to be taken out, why the highhandedness? He was treated like an ordinary criminal. Then, the lawyers were subjected to lathi charge and the govt dint wait for the next most senior judge to come back.Then taking TV channels off the air.
It seems like the govt wanted to created a situation of unrest.Could not a lot of this had been avoided if the suspension was handled in a more astute manner? It almost seems to be staged.

Re: rahul_capri# 30

Rahul, the whole situation was badly judged by the government. According to a British newspaper, The Guardian, the CJP was called to the President`s Camp Office and confronted with the charges and told to resign. When the CJP did not; the process was started and in this, the government misjudged the reaction.

There were distinct phases to this crisis. From March 9, 2007 till the attack on GEO offices, the government was trying to get its point of view across, but the message muddled because there was coordination between the government officals representing the government of view. This was made worse by the detailed and logical questions of the press and the sequential manner in which the press was building a time-line of the crisis. After the attack on GEO, the government went into ``damage management and repair`` and that President Musharraf`s interview to GEO marked the start of this phase.

As to the police, never underestimate the capacity of the police in Pakistan to over react and be more loyal than the king. The lathi charge was a pure case of police over-reaction and of a bad command and control situation resulting from confusion and again, a lack of proper coodination. Under the new Devolution Plan of Musharraf government and the new Police Ordinance 2002, the heirarchy of police in Pakistan and its system of functioning has been changed. Prior to this change, a civilian District Magistrate used to be charge and only he could order a police response to a situation. Under the present scenrio, the police is under the control of local bodies representatives - nazims - and in the case of Lahore, the nazim of Lahore was apprently in Gulberg and not on the scene as he should have been.

The point is that Lahore police over reacted, because it did not have clear instructions and it did not have a final authority, present on the scene, who could have controlled it. As always happens in Pakistan, the police took this confused situation and tried to make its own bonus points with the administration and in order to prove itself more loyal than the king, went overboard in its responses.

Rahul, in Pakistan, when a policeman is confronted with a situation that he does not understand, he invaribly panics and in his panic, he does only thing that he understands and that is the use of force. Please do not read too much into the police actions, because they were reflective of panic, confusion, zeal, poor training, weak command and control and the basic semi-literate education of a policeman. They all conspired to create a deadly cocktail of stupidity in the police behavior.

The government did not want to create a situation, because with Pakistan in an election year, any governmental action that might cause unrest would be automatically tied to the delay in elections. The government`s concern in this matter would be the internationa press, which if it got a whiff of an engineered crisis, would crucify the government.

Yes; it could all be better handled, but then again, with amateurs running the show one should not expect professional results.

Ciao

#25 by fuzair

“which element in the Army was trying to stage the palace-coup? Presumably the pro-US faction?”

No Fuzair, it has to be the Jammat Islami group in the army. CJ Sajjad is a long story and I would refer you to the wiki link for more details but it was clear that Sajjad was someone’s proxy. Here is a little something for you “A 3 member bench headed by Chief Justice Sajjad Ali Shah suspended the operation of the Thirteenth Amendment restoring the powers of the president to dissolve the National Assembly, a verdict which was within minutes set aside by another 10-member bench.The 10-member bench headed by Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui granted stay against the chief justice`s order minutes after it was passed, even without receiving any formal petition or the copy of the order..”
Please read more details here. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sajjad_Ali_Shah

Why the army did not protect him? It was a little beyond the army after Nawaz henchmen had already taken him out from the SC. The question was how far the army could go and the way the situation was at that time, Army had no choice but to back down. Interesting part is that I don’t recall any major protests by the lying Lawyers after what took place in SC on that fateful day. If I am not wrong, Karamat too was dispatched out of the army house soon after by Nawaz, probably the only act of bravery by a Pakistani politician. Even the Grand Master Bhutto told his daughter to never confront the army and she is still faithfully following her father’s deathbed advice.

Pakistan politics is army’s politics and you underestimate the army if you are not able to grasp the iron grip army had over Pakistani politics. So expecting that a CJ was acting on his own in the interest of Justice is simplistic. All movers and shakers in Pakistan move and shake after they get cues from the army.

All pointers suggest that it was the Jammat/Taliban group in the army that was behind the CJ. First, the Jamaat went on protesting about the missing Jihadis and terrorists and then the CJ comes out and interferes in a political issue on behalf of Jamaat and in support of jihadis. Why? He could have possibly asked the law enforcement to help find the missing Jihadi but he tried to take over the whole process. He acted unconstitutionally.

Personally, if this whole drama results in the weakening of the army I am all for it. Any political movement in Pakistan that pushes the army back should be welcomed but until and unless smaller provinces take part in a political movement, Pakistan will not see democracy or constitutional rule. It is quiet obvious now that mushy has to go and temporarily, we may see some civilian take over but eventually it will again be the Army running the show.


It is show time in Pakistan. Faces and actors may change, the macabre drama never changes.

actually, i need to add one more thing.......

there have been two unprecendented events in the past 18 months.....the second was the current, ``uprising`` by the lawyers and journalists, with moral support from the general public.......the first was the, ``uprising`` by the general public during the earthquake, with moral support from the journalists and the lawyers......

and the economy is doing really well......(and the models are now wearing mini skirts in fashion shows!)

not bad!......but still a long long way to go.....

i think pakistan is at roughly 40% democracy at the moment......

in the present day world, there are four pillars of democracy: executive, legislature, judiciary, and (due to the information age) press.....the current situation, in my opinion, has one of these pillars completely free....that pillar is the press.....the fact that the president shut down a tv news show and then had to start it up again and apologize on it, is unprecendented.....previous govts. could shut down whole newspapers and tv channel(s) without blinking......i dont` think the media can be rolled back now in pakistan.....it will, in fact get even more bold.........so that is the 25% of democracy.....

.......the judiciary is half free.......it has two parts: the bar and the bench.....the bar is free.....it has taken on the legislative and executive (and army) and has defeated it on the streets of pakistan (with the help of the press)......the only question that remains is whether the benches free......theoretically, the benches have always been free, however they have never had the courage to take on the executive and legislature like the press and bar have done......if they rule in favor of their cj, the judiciary will be well on its way to freedom........so this is the remaining 15%, with ten percent left......

.....in a parliamentary system, the legislature and executive are tied at the hip......the head of the legislature becomes the executive........at least that is how it is supposed to work.......however, in pakistan, it works the other way around.....someone becomes the executive and then makes the legislature completely subordinate to him/her......doesn`t matter if the executive is from the military or the civilian side.....

.....the executive and legislature in pakistan are thus never interested in democracy.....they are interested in forwarding their own corrupt and opportunistic interests.....hence they are always ready to make a deal with each other to ensure they can loot the country......be it martial law or through elections......due to this, it is always in the interests of these two pillars, to ensure that the press and judiciary are never free....these two pillars will, thus, never be interested in democracy.........they will have to be forced to accept it, kicking and screaming.......bb is as much of a dictator as musharraf.....musharraf is financially honest but constitutionally corrupt......bb has been financially corrupt, but constitutionally (relatively) honest.......both can be prosecuted.......but in the end, both will bail each other out......bb will make a deal with musharraf who will excuse her financial corruption.......while bb will excuse musharraf`s constitutional corruption.......both these deals will be done at the expense of pakistan, as a country.....

........in such a scenario, the responsibilty lies with the judiciary and press to control the executive and legislature........perhaps at a later stage, voters will be able to control the legislature and thus the executive through free and fair elections......but that is a while away.........

the ideal scenario would be for the sjc to acquit the cj.......the cj to then take on musharraf and force him to be a civlian president, with no further terms.........the cj to then not allow bb to make a deal and to then prosecute her on corruption charges and to kick her out also (as well as any other politicians)............along with this elections to be held monitored by a free press and judiciary.......

so any pakistani hoping for the legislature (read political parties) and/or executive (read army) to bring in democracy will be disappointed......these two will do their best to ensure democracy does not come in, with or without elections......

the hope is with the other two pillars........and this current incidence(s) is a watershed point in pakistan`s history in that this is the first time the press and judiciary have taken on the executive and legislature and have actually won........

arjun writes <<< So sez the guy who was rejected for teaching in the land of the pure...and we all know what high standards(cough cough) they have there... >>>

Fool, you don`t have a clue about what you write. Nobody rejected me, I still teach at one of the largest public universities in the country. An MBA school, and there are dozens that have cropped up decided they didn`t need a sociologist to muddy the ``beautiful`` picture of America they were presenting to their students as they prepare them for peonship of the West...

Bulleya is correct, the top leadership of the Pak Army is firmly in the grip of the US. The divergent factions exist at lower levels and are easily defeated. Bulleya is wrong that the army has retreated faced by the lawyers and the press, the army has not retreated, it has stood down...

#9 HP Sain-munjho,

We`ve had our pronounced differences in the past and I don`t want to start that again; asking a genuine question. If, as you say, CJ Sajjad was doing the Army`s bidding in moving against Nawaz Sharif, why did Karamat refuse to provide him with security against the goondas of the PML? Didn`t he ask for protection, which the Army refused?

In keeping with your thesis, which I admit is the most interesting take on the situation I`ve seen so far, which element in the Army was trying to stage the palace-coup? Presumably the pro-US faction?

Maybe it`s time to ditch Mushy. Let a really powerful ``Sher da Puttar`` Pakistani Punjaibi Paindoo dictator, like Zia Ul Haque, take over. Mushy is too wishy washy and soft on the vandals roaming the streets, shitting bricks, and destroying property - the fact that the miscreants are mostly lawyers makes it worse.

Had Mushy thrown a necktie party for the PPP ``democratically-elected`` ex-PM Nawaz Besharif, like Zia did to ZAB, everyone would get in line. I am disgusted with Mushy.

A pox on the Paki military. Its a shame our tax dollars perpetuate its hold on power.

I have always stated the reason the mlitary is able to dominate the civil side, is not because of guns and its large size.....It is because its leadership remains united to its institution.......It never breaks up......In addition, it has internal traditions, which take precedence over everything else........

Quite a few civilians have tried to breakup the military........All have been unsucessful......Nawaz tried it against Musharraf and lost his job......When Musharraf was appointed COAS, an hour later Gen Ali Kuli (who was senior to him) resigned, as per tradition......

I have also always stated that if any civilian institution shows similar unity it will be able to dominate the military.....However, none has been able to do so........Due to which the military has conveniently broken them up and played one against the other........

That was, until now.......For the first time, I have seen two civilian groups fully internally united......The legal community and the press (sidenote: I have also always stated that these two are the only groups in Pakistan with some backbone)........They have not allowed themselves to be broken.........And look at the result.........The military, who everyone assumed ruled because it had guns, has retreated so fast, at the face of a few hundred journalists and a few thousand lawyers, it is hard to keep up with it......

.........Now the next phase is the bench, i.e. judiciary portion of the legal profession.....Judges are always very weak in keeping unity in their ranks...However, if they learn from the bar, and support the CJ, then Musharraf is finished......He will be hugely weakened.......

Unfortunately, the politicians are divided again......They must be the most opportunistic group around, with far too many skeletons in their closets.......PPP, primarily due to BB is not participating........Neither is MQM.......This is despite the fact, that PPP and MQM are the two parties which have always faced the brunt of miltiary rule (though MQM has joined the military this time).........BB wants the cases dropped against her, and has quickly ditched Nawaz Sharif sensing she can get back into power.......

There is something the politiicans need to learn.........First and foremost in any battle, one must shift the battle into one`s own arena.........into one`s own backyard, so to speak........in this case, from a military domain to a political domain......Only afterwards, should one fight one`s internal battles.........The army has maulvi generals, secular generals, generals who drink and generals who pray six times a day......However, when their institution is threatened, they unite........They don`t divide into secular or religious groups.........They first win the confrontation and then divide up.........I am sure journalists and lawyers have similar groups, however, they have stuck together......

Politicians need to do the same.........However, they are allowing the govt. to play the secular/religious card and divide them........They, should, firstly forget their differences........All of them, together, should take on the govt., regardless of secular or religious tendencies of political parties......Once the military is out, then they should fight out their internal ideological battles..........But firstly they need to, in a united fashion, move the fight into their political domain.........They will not be able to do so, if they continue to let the military dictate whether Pakistan should have a secular or religious govt, and who should be in power........

Its pretty simple......Quite easy to deal with the miltiary, if unity is maintained, as I have always stated.......And politicians are far more powerful than lawyers and journalists - provided politicians remain united........

Re: # 19

Interesting observations. Unity is the key but politicans in Pakistan cannot unify at the cost of their personal interests. Sadly, it is the over importance of the personal interest over a principle that has always led Pakistani to a disaster.

Ciao

#13 by masadi on March 20, 2007 1:26am PT


with sprinklings of worship of Western names and all things Western


So sez the guy who was rejected for teaching in the land of the pure...and we all know what high standards(cough cough) they have there...

when`re you getting back to publishing on lulu.com?

``A VERY GRATEFUL PAKISTANI NATION SALUTES ITS JUDGES WHO RESIGNED AS A MATTER OF PRINCIPLE:

Judge Rajesh Chandar Rajput - First Civil Judge-Sukkur

Judge Ashraf Yar - First Civil Judge - Karachi

Judge Pir Asad Rashdi - Fourth Civil Judge - Central

Judge Mustafa Safwan - senior Civil Judge

Judge Allah Bachaio Gabol - senior Civil Judge

Justice Jawad S Khawaja - Lahore High Court ``


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