War Clouds Over Iran

An attack against Iran will be catostrophic for Iran, USA and for the rest of the world......Iran is quite a bit different than Iraq......It is far larger, in size and population.......It is has a more homogenous and united population......It has institutions in place........And it has a standing Army.......

.......The first thing Iran will do if it is bombed by the USA is to close the Straits of Hormuz.......It will target any ship, carrying oil, which has anything to do with the USA......This will raise the price of oil through the roof........It will, then, use its proxies in Iraq to massively increase attacks against the USA.......It will also use its Air Force to bomb US targets in Iraq............

In any case, an attack on Iran will be orders of magnitude bigger event, with much bigger consequences, for everyone, than an attack on Iraq...........Other than Israel, no country will support the USA.......It would be an extremely stupid thing to do............

Which is why I think that Bush and Cheney may actually go ahead and do it...........Or get the Israelis to do it...........

<<< In any case, an attack on Iran will be orders of magnitude bigger event, with much bigger consequences, for everyone, than an attack on Iraq........... >>>

Why should the US elite care, they will be laughing all the way to the bank. Talks about unipolar and bipolar and multipolar worlds are smokescreens, the objective reality has been, even during the cold war of a unipolar, US dominated world.

The US elite don`t want this secret to be let out, their cultural apparatus kicks in whenever an old image (of the US versus the Communists) is shattered. The image the US wants to project is of an ``equal opportunity`` world where rivals can threaten the US. Now when the world no longer buys the ``Al_Qaeda as foe`` slogan and when the agenda calls for a new front, the old foe is slayed (Zarkawi) and Iraq is more linked with Iranian interference than Al-Qaeda. Hmmm I wonder how that happened!

Iran has to be worked upon as the new foe, and the author`s point about Khatami and the new conservatives that have arisen in Iran as a result of US posturing reveals just that. All out war, I doubt it, but keeping the flames of war alive, yes. It is good for both the US elite and the mullahs in Iran, long time bed fellows with many bastard children....

There is a strong suspicion that if not stopped by the Congress


I`m torn..should I mock your ignorance or laugh at your naivete. You`re assuming congressional dems want to stop the war or are antiwar or something...


link

Read it and weep:

``Top House Democrats retreated Monday from an attempt to limit President Bush`s authority for taking military action against Iran as the leadership concentrated on a looming confrontation with the White House over Iraq. Officials said Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other members of the leadership had decided to strip from a major military spending bill a requirement for Bush to gain approval from Congress before moving against Iran. Conservative Democrats as well as lawmakers concerned about the possible impact on Israel had argued for the change in strategy.``

This settles at least three matters once and for all: To begin with, the president has been given the green light to attack Iran. Withdrawing this provision from the spending bill is an act not just of complicity, but of open collaboration with the Bush administration`s war plans. When the bombs begin to fall, and the Democrats rise up in a yowl of righteous indignation, the president will be quite justified in doing this.

Secondly, the Democrats are either being dishonest or they lack fundamental knowledge of geography, because Pelosi is attacking the president for his Iraq ``surge`` even as she gives him the go-ahead for a super-surge right across the border in Iran.

#1 by bulleya on April 9, 2007 0:28am PT



.......The first thing Iran will do if it is bombed by the USA is to close the Straits of Hormuz......It will also use its Air Force to bomb US targets in Iraq............



You greatly overestimate the ability of Iran to throttle the straits of hormuz or get it`s AF off the ground. A war on Iran, which I think is unfortunately inevitable, will be like the one launched on Serbia...

looks like there is some new sectarian strife being fermented in pakistan..

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6534473.stm

last time westerners were kidnapped by iran, sadma was unleashed on it. this time iran did the right thing, otherwise, there are always pakistani JF-17s at ready.

The US is now likely to restrict itself to air/missile attacks and carpet bomb selected areas in Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan & maybe NW Pakistan. It is extremely unlikely that ground forces will be used to ``win, occupy and clear`` the territory by the USA anywhere in the near future.

This is a good article worthy of discussion, but guess it got obscured in the historical riot going-on on Shandana`s board.

Re war on Iran, there is a window between April and July in which it can be launched. Not beyond that because the election circus in USA will begin by then and Bush will be a complete lame-duck. April is said to be the mosts critical and Israeli intelligence reports (as per Reuters) even gave a date of 6 April. It hasn`t happened though.

In my opinion, the time has passed to launch a war. Iran had correctly been brink-walking and playing for time, which it has done successfully. The last coup` de grace was humiliation of the British. Captured 15 armed marines without firing a short, then feeding them on TV, then dressing them in made-in Iran suits instead of their uniforms and shipping them back home on the combined Eid Milad and Easter. All moral justification for war has disappeared after that.

So, nothing will happen. Iran will go ahead and get a nuke in 3-5 years. Bush/Cheney will be out of office and on on lecture tours. Ces`t La Vie.

the article and #1 and #7 below remind me of the following I had seen sometime back

Iranian leadership knows if the bombings start on them then it is a matter of time before Iran will lose its infrastructure and the regime my lose it control over the country. So the Iranians will try to bring the pain upfront on their enemy. They will first try to disrupt the oil supply from the gulf. They will first start ground to ground missle attack on oil wells in countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, etc. In parallel to this they will also try to disrupt the Hormouz Channel. They can silpmy do it by hitting one or two super oil tankers. This will cause an oil spill that will probabaly stop the traffic flow from the strait. They can also start dumping oil from Kharg island in the strait. 2 million barral a day will cause quite a slick in the channel making oil supply through the channel almost impossible. There is also a chance that they might put it on file by using white phosphorus igniters.

Oil prices, with this type of disruption, will reach around $300 per barrel practically bringing the rest of the world into recession including USA.

This is just a begining. What they can do in Iraq and Israel through itheir proxies is also a disaster picture.

Asfand