Pakistan – The Threat From Within

SHARIAH OR SHAHADAT (Martyrdom)

Students of Jamiah Hafsa protesting

hamidm mian:# ``the us trade deficit with india was over $10B ............. on top of that us companies like ibm, hp, gm and ge have hired tens of thousands of indian professionals at high salaries that continue to grow at an alarming rate (alarming for employers and customers)``

....This is true........

`` ........... the indian middle class continues to grow``

This is also true.......

``......and soon there will be a starbucks on every corner in bangalore....``

This is definitely not true.........As I told you earlier, Bangalore still has a long way to go to catch up with Islamabad.........In fact, it has a ways to go to catch up with Lahore.......Forget about any other city.......I am not sure why, since the first two factors would mean that the third should be true, but for some strange reason, it isn`t true..........Bangalore is, basically, a very large Rawalpindi..........with one corner, which looks (somewhat) like Silicon Valley........

#277 Masadi

``...recognize the trick of the US companies whose items, manufactured abroad but sent back home are shown as ``imports``, thus all the relocated manufacturing concerns of the US contribute to the fictional so-called ``trade deficit`` with the poor nation...

This seems like a very interesting point. Could you please further elaborate on this. As a layman I do understand that in an equation between US and any other country the net flow of wealth is always directed towards US. It has always been the case since the time US replaced the previous colonial powers after Atlantic Charter.

In the past, before the collapse of Soviet Union, the equation was easier to undertand when the modus operandi was the politics of `aid`. Suppose a third world country has a GDP of $1, US would offer that country to sell a capital good item fo $3 whose actual selling price should be $1. Now the 3rd world country can`t buy it but needs it to improve its manufacturing base; so it borrows $2 from US and buys that $3 item. So US sold the item for $1 (as it should have) but in the process will benefit from the interest on $2 plus the actual amount for many years to come. So the third world country will borrow more to pay the back debts.

This equation was easier to understand. But this ``trade deficit`` scam is a new one and I want to understand it. Interestingly enough, every US economist whines that there is trade dificit viz a viz China, however, they do not connect these dots with those that US borrows the same amount of money on monthly basis from China as much there the trade dificit is. God what a scam.

the big dog wants mushy to be around but any other pliant dictator willing to bomb the tribals and hand over pakis of the jihadi persuasion will do...

As TV Coverage Feeds Protests, Musharraf Reacts

By Griff Witte
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, June 4, 2007; Page A01

HARIPUR, Pakistan -- Every day, Taj Mohammed Abbasi wheels his cart through dusty streets, selling the oranges, guavas and litchis that are the pride of this rural outpost in the shadow of the Himalayan foothills.

But what he`s seen recently on television motivated him this weekend to take to the streets for a different reason: to join a movement with the audacious goal of ousting the military-led government and restoring democracy to Pakistan.

``Watching television, I have become very angry,`` said Abbasi, 33, swatting flies from his cart. ``I am not a political person. I have not been to a lot of rallies. But this time, definitely, I am going.``

Pakistan might be in the midst of its first televised revolution. For nearly three months, a handful of fledgling independent stations have been broadcasting minute-by-minute coverage of what at first seemed a relatively obscure issue: the suspension of Pakistan`s chief judge by the president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf.

Since then, Pakistanis nationwide have been transfixed by live coverage of police beating lawyers, pro-Musharraf groups firing assault rifles at demonstrators and the chief justice speaking to ever-larger and more boisterous audiences about the dangers of autocratic rule.

As the cameras have rolled, opposition to Musharraf has surged, and he is considered more vulnerable now than at any time in his eight years in office. Even in rural areas where poverty is high, residents have gathered in hotels and barbershops around the few television sets available and watched the brewing crisis play out live.

Here in Haripur -- an hour`s drive north of the capital, Islamabad, but a world away from its modern conveniences -- residents came out by the thousands on Saturday to demand that Musharraf step aside and allow elections to restore civilian rule.

Stung by the criticism, Musharraf has reacted by cracking down on what had been the government`s signature defense against charges of authoritarianism: the independent television news networks.

The country`s half-dozen networks all sprung up under his watch, and Musharraf has repeatedly bragged to the world about his efforts to free Pakistani television from state control and censorship for the first time in the country`s history. But with his government teetering, Musharraf, a key U.S. ally, is threatening the networks` very existence.

``He allowed the genie out of the bottle. But he didn`t realize how big it could become. Now he`s trying to put it back,`` said Talat Hussain, director of news and current affairs for one of the channels, Aaj Television.

Aaj, along with others, has come under intense pressure in recent days to pull programming off the air and to cancel live coverage of opposition rallies. Aaj has continued to broadcast, but its transmission is being blocked throughout much of the country.

``I have no illusions about it,`` Hussain said. ``They`re going to shut us down.``

Ayaz Amir, a political commentator who hosts a call-in program on rival channel ARY Oneworld, said his show was canceled this past week because of government pressure. ``I`ve been branded as a person who`s not favorably disposed to the government,`` he said.

Government officials deny they are censoring the news media. They say they are simply enforcing regulations that have been on the books for years but have often been ignored, including a requirement that stations get permission before they broadcast live.

``The independence of the media is something we take pride in,`` said Information Minister Mohammed Ali Durrani. ``We`ll take care of their independence.``

Musharraf has made no secret of his displeasure with the way the controversy over the chief justice has been covered, and his top aides have accused the news media of exploiting the issue for ratings gains.

Last week, Durrani warned journalists against criticizing the army, an institution that has historically been revered in Pakistan but is increasingly attacked for denying the country a chance at civilian rule eight years after a military-led coup elevated Musharraf to power.

Durrani`s remarks came after the independent channels broadcast marathon coverage of an anti-Musharraf rally at which demonstrators chanted slogans such as, ``The generals are traitors`` and ``Save the country -- take Musharraf`s skin off.``

Since that rally, several of the channels have toned down their coverage of the crisis, and there is widespread speculation that they made deals with the government in order to continue broadcasting.

Until recent months, Musharraf had displayed an adeptness at using the media to his advantage -- giving occasional interviews and staging elaborate press events to showcase government accomplishments. The tactics worked: The president enjoyed widespread popularity and was considered virtually invincible.

But the chief justice, Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, loomed as a potential obstacle because he was expected to rule on cases that could complicate Musharraf`s plans to get himself elected for another five-year term by a lame-duck parliament.

On March 9, Musharraf invited cameramen to a meeting at which he expected Chaudhry to resign under pressure for alleged abuses of office. Instead, Chaudhry refused. The image of the judge moments before he stood up to the uniformed president became the first icon of the controversy.

The next came days later, when police raided Geo television`s office in Islamabad as the station tried to film protesters demonstrating against Chaudhry`s suspension. Tear gas filled the office, and police began beating journalists with batons, but the cameras continued to roll.

Two months later, in Karachi, Aaj`s office came under attack as demonstrators clashed in the streets outside in violence that would ultimately claim more than 40 lives. During six hours of live coverage, Aaj`s anchors repeatedly called for help from the police, to no avail, on a day when government security forces were widely blamed for standing by as the city burned.

A note on the Geo Web site Sunday said: ``The government has blocked the transmission of the Geo News TV channel across the country due to the reasons best known to them. . . .

``The citizens, social and political circles have condemned the ban on transmission of Geo News and they have demanded of the government to immediately lift ban on the transmission of the Geo News and give complete freedom to media in the country,`` it said.

The chief justice and his supporters have used television to their advantage, staging exuberant, day-long parades from one city to the next, earning them hours of continuous coverage.

By contrast, political observers say, the government has tried to use force and intimidation to end the controversy, but has consistently misjudged how its efforts would play on television. As a result, Musharraf`s problems have only intensified.

``What they did not take into account was that the crisis was going live to every bloody Pakistani household,`` said Aamer Ahmed Khan, Pakistan editor of the BBC World Service and a journalist here for more than two decades. ``That is what is making them nervous now.``

comrade masadi...what would mills says about your government fooling your people by quoting a figure that has no meaning when the real figure makes them out to look real bad...

we all know you blame abdul`s inability to seek life liberty and the pursuit of a goat/camel on the US, but without US aid, you`d be much much further behind...

Real income growth lags behind Asia

By Yousuf Nazar


Pakistan ranks as the seventh most dangerous country after Iraq, Sudan, Israel, Russia, Nigeria, and Columbia in a 121-nation study by the Economist Intelligence Unit.

While such rankings can be subjective (it may be the 10th or 11th), this is not good news for the government which claims that Pakistan has made unprecedented economic progress during its tenure, recording one of the highest GDP growth rates.

The reality is Pakistan’s per capita GDP growth has been one of the lowest in Asia and below the average of all low-income countries during 1999-2005, when measured in purchasing power parity terms as per the data in the World Bank’s Development Indicators released on April 15, 2007.

The government uses statistics to make claims that cannot stand simple logical test and independent validation. For example, it cites the rise in per capita GDP to $833 in 2006 to support its claim that incomes have doubled in the past 6-7 years and Pakistan will soon become a middle-income country. This is simply misleading. The analysis based on the World Bank’s statistics reveals the true picture of the economic growth in Pakistan relative to the other developing countries.

A widely recognised indicator of the level of prosperity is gross domestic product (GDP) on purchasing power parity (PPP) basis. Since nominal prices of different goods and services vary from country to country, this method of measurement neutralises those nominal differences by comparing what a similar basket of goods and services would cost in different countries. Hence, GDP measured on purchasing power parity basis is considered a more accurate measure of income level and standard of living.

As shown in the graph, Pakistan’s yearly per capita income growth rate was only 4.62 per cent during 1999-2005 and lagged behind not just India’s 7.3 per cent but also that of similar developing countries with large populations, like Indonesia, Turkey, and the Philippines. These growth rates were derived from GDP per capita data on purchasing power parity basis, as published by the World Bank.

While one-year data should not be used to comment on longer term trends, the above data for the six years belies government’s claims about one of the highest growth rates in the world and confirms the belief that the benefits of growth during the recent years have been somewhat eroded by a persistently high inflation. It is only logical that Pakistan with one of highest inflation rates in the developing world should see a slower growth in the real incomes and living standards when the rest of it is growing at 6-7 per cent with lower inflation averaging about 4-5 per cent compared to Pakistan’s 8-9 per cent. Hence these indicators are unlikely to change materially in one or two years.

Other important World Bank development indicators (2005) also confirm the view that Pakistan remains behind its peers as shown below:

Among this select group, Pakistan has the lowest per capita income in purchasing power terms, the lowest primary school enrolment rate, the highest infant mortality rate, the lowest electricity consumption per capita ( a measure of progress as well as industrialisation), and the highest level of military spending as a per cent of GDP. This is not surprising except for one indicator. Contrary to the widely held view among apologists and supporters of military dictatorships, the real per capita income is not only higher in India but the gap has increased since 1999. In that year, India’s per capita income was 25 per cent higher than Pakistan’s and in 2005 it was 46 per cent higher in purchasing power parity terms.

This is not to say that Pakistan has not made any progress but to put it in a more realistic perspective beyond a narrow set of indicators like GDP growth, bank lending, consumption, foreign investments, etc. Progress in GDP growth terms has been good for most periods when military ruled the country. Yet, after the end of every military regime, the so-called progress turned out to be a bonanza that benefited a few at the expense of critical national development priorities while exacerbating social and regional polarisation.

Assuming the elections will be held as per schedule even though the possibility of the imposition of emergency or even martial law cannot be completely ruled out, it is an appropriate time to judge the performance of this regime in the context of Pakistan history that has revolved around a debilitating cycle of military intervention, half-hearted reforms, failure, demoralisation and breakdown. We now appear to be passing through the disenchantment and demoralisation phase.

Hitherto friendly international media has turned negative and some leading American papers have commented editorially on the gravity of the crisis. The New York Times in its May 23 editorial commented, “A succession of uniformed dictators has misruled Pakistan for more than half of its 60-year history. All have advertised themselves as great friends of Washington, but all have fanned extremism while discrediting America`s reputation among ordinary Pakistanis. There is no security with General Musharraf. The United States belongs on the side of Pakistani democracy.”

Never mind the crisis, the prime minister’s statements about the state of the economy and its prospects appear to be oblivious of worsening macro economic indicators and of growing anxiety in the street and the ‘bazaar’. It is claimed this year’s GDP growth will touch seven per cent, but the credibility of the government’s statistics is seriously questionable.

According to its own data, inflation and exports target are going to be missed, development spending level is way short of target, current account deficit is forecast to reach 5.5-6 per cent of the GDP, and large scale industrial production growth has slowed down to eight per cent compared to 10 per cent in 2006, notwithstanding the fact the Federal Bureau of Statistics has not released quarterly manufacturing data after the first quarter of the current fiscal year as it did in the past.

The stock market continues to rise, charges about manipulation notwithstanding, but the foreign investors’ buying has reduced to a trickle (about $5 million during May) after hitting a peak of $112 million during March 2007 and dropping to $52 million in April. Government borrowings have almost trebled to Rs212 billion during the current fiscal year from Rs73.5 billion last year. The crowding out of the funds to the private sector, accompanied by a more than 100 basis points increase in the average lending rate during the past year, cannot but negatively affect the growth in the next twelve months.

Given the below average growth in rural areas and the concentration of 50 per cent of the urban population in the six largest cities to which bulk of the so-called ‘trickle down” seems to have been taken place; the high food inflation, growing income inequality and ostentatious consumption have only served to alienate the lower and lower middle income groups from the current regime.

According to a public opinion poll conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI) in March 2007, the economic issues received a much higher intensity of responses than did the non-economic issues with 92 per cent of Pakistanis terming inflation as the most important issue followed by unemployment (85 per cent). The country needs to face more fundamental questions of far reaching implications in the coming months in what is supposed to be an election year. The opposition parties should offer concrete and comprehensive programmes to address core economic issues instead of merely criticising the government for its failures.

With the growing political uncertainty, the economic growth in Pakistan faces greater risks compared to its Asian competitors given its much higher dependency on foreign exchange flows including remittances, investments and aid in that order. The foreign investors’ buying of stocks has slowed, the privatisation programme is in trouble and the property market in Karachi is quiet. The biggest risk is the General will use the spreading disorder and the actions of an increasingly assertive judiciary and lawyers` community as justification to tighten the autocratic grip on power. This may cause the foreign capital flows to dry up, trigger a fall in stock and property markets, exacerbate the current account position, and increase pressure on an over-valued rupee to depreciate.

A beleaguered administration is not in a position to impose new taxes and may find it difficult to contain the budget deficit at the current level. Neither it can afford to make big cuts in the development expenditure and is therefore likely to borrow more or print money. This will keep the upward pressure on interest rates to the detriment of the overall economy.

Even if the General manages to come out of this crisis, it may come at a cost of sharing increased power with the politicians with his authority considerably weakened in the process. In this scenario, although the overall direction of the economic policies is unlikely to change, the uncertainty will not disappear as any alliance between the generals and the ‘liberal’ parties may serve to unite the rest of the opposition and provoke them into challenging the government with even greater force. In any event, a greater period of uncertainty seems to lie ahead and will continue to cast its long shadow on the economy until the current crisis resolves.

yousufnazar@yahoo.com

#283 by aslam644 on June 3, 2007 2:56pm PT


The Pakistani invasion of Europe has started


yeah...they`re really looking forward to that...

Europe`s invisible illegals
Pakistanis are coming to Europe in big numbers; authorities worry they`re bringing terror with them.

Terror Threats?: Would-be illegal Pakistani immigrants at the Canary Islands

By Christopher Dickey
Newsweek International

June 11, 2007 issue - When Italian police arrested 28 illegal Pakistani immigrants in Naples four years ago, authorities claimed they`d broken up a Qaeda cell plotting to attack nearby NATO installations. After all, the raid had turned up a Pakistani newspaper with a picture of a visiting British officer. The cops also found explosives, detonators, maps, false identity papers and dozens of mobile phones. But less than two weeks later, all the suspects had been freed for lack of solid-enough evidence. Prosecutors, who`d had little experience with such new immigrants, just couldn`t make the charges stick.

``They were all innocent,`` says Ejaz Ahmad, the editor of an Urdu-language monthly in Rome who acted as translator at the court hearing. Most of the Pakistanis were street vendors. The explosives were more like fireworks, he says. ``And now,`` he adds, ``all 28 are working in Italy.``

The case may have been a failure for the local cops, but it did establish one thing: just how nervous European authorities are becoming about burgeoning Pakistani populations in places—such as Italy, Spain and France—where there were few or none at all just a few years ago. Now numbering in the hundreds of thousands, many of these Pakistanis have sneaked onto the Continent via Iran, Turkey and the Balkans. They`ve also begun taking a circuitous route across Africa and then by ship to Spain`s Canary Islands or the Mediterranean coasts of Europe. Almost overnight, Pakistani neighborhoods have sprung up in Barcelona and Bologna.

Re: # 274

Massaddi Mian:

``It is not about you or I or your sprinkler guy who is well known to all here thanks to your over generalized (and thus BS) Horatio Alger story about him,....``

Stop taking Religio-Social opium, so that your mind can get out of the hang over to think, and open your eyes. This is not an isolated example, Reliance, Infosys among many in the Sub continent, and many examples are in Silicon Valley.

``...you`d be very selfish to ignore such a system`s effect short term and a fool to think you`re or your kids are immune from the effects of such a disastrous system, long term...``

Follow my above advise and try to read and understand phenomenon of upward mobility. I truly feel for the kids you are corrupting and spoiling their ability to dream. If you are unable to read, accept someone as your guru to teach you.

Re: # 277

Massaddi Mian:

``....neither does he recognize the trick of the US companies whose items, manufactured abroad but sent back home are shown as ``imports``, thus all the relocated manufacturing concerns of the US contribute to the fictional so-called ``trade deficit`` with the poor nation... ``

Is this all you have learned and now teaching in Pakistan? What did they do to deserve, they honestly went their to get education, and parents think their sons and daughters are getting. Pathetic split toungue talker, faking as a teacher.

Echoboom #284

Thanx brother for condolences. May Allah bless you for that.

aslam #283 The good thing is that the average Pakistani is better than those leading the nation or seeking to lead it. So, they contribute in a positive way to wherever they go (with the bus bombers of UK being the exception that proves the rule).

btw, I read your posts on the other board addressed to me on the subject of the UK labor party. That was quite educational for me, and no doubt the labor party deserves credit for helping UK get back on its feet after WWII and also to adjust in a smooth and realistic manner to the end of the British Empire. If only the duds we have as leaders had half the commitment to their nation as the british (or indeed any other country, including India - where a succession of prime ministers has propelled that nation forward while we are still struggling to have these generals get the hell out of the positions of political power they arrogated to themselves through force).

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hamidm: Do not argue with a fool, they say, since people may not be able to tell the difference between the two.

PS: Sorry, I could not resist the above seeing that every post you address to masadi starts with the honorific ``fool`` the same way every post from him starts with something similar.

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The Pakistani invasion of Europe has started

In Spain, a Pakistani like Usman Yasar, a 29-year-old construction worker, can settle comfortably into a regional capital like Logroño in La Rioja. He plays cricket and eats curries served from shop windows. He gets help if there`s a problem with his documents at the Asociación Pakistaní de la Rioja. In a region of 300,000 people, Yasar`s countrymen now number more than 6,000. Official statistics place the total number of Pakistanis in Spain at more than 40,000, where 15 years ago their numbers were negligible. And the real count could be much higher. ``We may have the biggest population of Pakistanis in Europe after Great Britain,`` says a top law-enforcement official in Madrid.``
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19000112/site/newsweek/page/2/

Govt blocks transmission of Geo News
Updated at 2250 PST
KARACHI: The government has blocked the transmission of the Geo News TV channel across the country due to the reasons best known to them.

The viewers’ calls flooded the Geo office to ask that why the transmission of Geo News TV channel was suddenly suspended when the famous programme, “Meray Mutabik” was going on.

The calls of the viewers were received from various parts of the country. According to Geo News sources the government has blocked the transmission of the Geo News across the country.

Geo transmission was blocked in various parts of Islamabad, Lahore, Hyderabad, Karachi and other areas.

The citizens, social and political circles have condemned the ban on transmission of Geo News and they have demanded of the government to immediately lift ban on the transmission of the Geo News and give complete freedom to media in the country.