An Empowering Verdict!

Re: # 34

HP Sahib:

You indeed have the corniest way of looking at things. I know, I sued the word corniest - if you find it offensive, I appologize.

You can never see a silver lining, and therefore, must have been a marxist leftist in previous or current incarnation.

Too many forces are in place to reform and reengineer Pakistan. Get them into play, you will forget historical analysis after analysis. I will take bets with you to buy you the dinner in San Francisco, if Pakistan does not move toward its future as I am suggesting in previous posting to Romair.

dost-mittar #19: "Musharraf too is probably not too unhappy with the decision. He has no doubt realised that sacking the CJ was a mistake, which had to be corrected."

......musharraf and the rest of the army is probably in a state of shock, by what has happened......you need to understand the mindse of the coas in pakistan....

......the pakistani military, like all militaries, has a full-fledged judiciary internal to the military with its equivalent of a chief justice (JAG)....however, this whole judicial system is under the coas.....even though it is supposed to be independent.......hence to a coas, a judge is nothing much.....perhaps a colonel or brigadier, he can throw around......this is why the army always treats judges with contempt......

.......the judges never had the balls to stand up to the army....i am not sure why......this time, around, two things were different.....one the lawyers stuck together and two the media brought everything to the public......

musharraf and his corps commanders are in uncharted waters.....things have gone totally against standard procedures of a coup......rest assured they are not happy....

.......this could set into motin a series of steps that could result, theoretically, in musharraf getting hanged....a case is in the supreme court, already, against musharraf getting re-elected....it is an open and shut case.....then there will be one against his uniform......open and shut......he is nothing, politically, without his uniform........at which point, there may be one of treason against him, against the coup......again open and shut.......the punishment for a coup is death....

the reason no one ever got the death penalty is that every coup maker before he takes off his uniform gets the assembly to officially declare all his actions legal......that is also standard procedure of a coup......the judiciary is already intimidated and doesn't speak....

now musharraf is stuck......totally dependent on benazir.....if she works with him, he can get an amendment passed, forgiving his coup sins.......in return he forgives her corruption sins.......

.......if she doesn't work with him, musharraf can neither get re-elected, nor keep his uniform, nor fight a legal battle against his coup......

it will be interesting to see what the cj does now......he is, at the moment, hands down the most powerful man in the country.......not only does he have legal power (which he is supposed to have).......the political parties are all behind him (when was the last time they were all behind him)......and literally every pakistani (other than musharraf and ahmedmadani) are behind him........

i wonder if the cj will allow musharraf to drop the corruption cases against bb.......they were in nab courts and nab comes under a serving lt. gen!.....amazing but true.....however the cj could re-start them.......

totally uncharted waters for pakistan and the army.....

i am quite sure the corps commanders are meeting, desparately, to figure out what to do.......this decision has gone against the script, they were taught in military academies.....

musharraf totally underestimated the status of chief justice, within the civil society.......

hamidm2 mian#: "with the federal sharia court, the council for islamic ideology and the special terrorism courts in place it is not really clear - at least to me - how much weight the cj actually carries inspite of his fine moustache ......"

....all courts in pakistan are under the supreme court.....the federal shariah court just checks if laws are inline with islam.....appeals against its decisions to go to a bench of the supreme court.....it cannot do anything to the cj....council of islamic ideology is not a court.....i don't think there are any special terrorism courts operating now......only nab courts.....both these courts are two levels below the supreme court....i.e. one level below the high court.....

the chief justice sits above all of these courts......

rest assured if the chief of army staff has had to back down, then i doubt anyone else will be able to touch the cj or touch the supreme court.....the shariah courts and the councils of ideologies and nabs etc. are all created by the coas.......

tahmed,

.... sorry, i didn't quite say why this might be a phyrric victory ...

...... i think the mullahs, who have jumped on the cj's bandwagon, will gain the most from this 'victory' .... while the rest of the politicians squabble over what to do next, the mullahs will throw the rotten carcasses from the lal masjid and other fresh bodies from the daily suicide bommbings on to this bandwagon and run off with it ...... liaqat baloch was the only politician on join in the clebrations, and fazloo and qazi hussain ahmed were on the talk show circuit claiming it to be a victory for allah and his dead virgins .......

....... in any case, there is no reason not to celebrate - it is step in the right direction even though the future is still quite uncertain .........

Re: Post 24

Dear tahmed32:

I agree that change is not a sudden event it is a process that take time. Lets hope things will change and wait to see what survives the test of time. Good talking to you. Thanks a lot.

Regards.

tahmed mian,

....... i never said that this is not a good thing but that it might be a phyrric victory

Re: # 27 hamid braader: please dont use the word "pyrrhic" inappropriately. While 42 lives were lost on May 12 on the road to this Verdict, the term pyrrhic implies bloodshed at a much larger scale.

Perhaps you meant "ephemeral"?? (which you are permitted to do if you enjoy being pessimistic).

Tahir Qazi #18 (Please ignore my response #22 and #23 which I messed up, and replace it with this post)

Your post #18 implies the following sequence of cause and effect:

Verdict LEADS TO Socio-Economic Change LEADS TO Institutional Change.

The proper sequence in my view is as follows:

Socio-Economic Change LEADS TO Institutional Change.

And the Verdict itself is the first and most fundamental institutional change (i.e. the all important change in Governance) that has already taken place. And the mere fact that even this verdict would not have meant anything without the outpouring of popular support for the Chief Justice, indicates that the Socio-Economic milieu (reflecting a large middle class, an increasingly pluralistic society, a population used to earning its living through honest work and possessing many admirable qualities like hospitality, no real problems of alcoholism that afflict many troubled societies like Russia or many third world countries like Mexico as I have seen first hand) of Pakistan is in fact much healthier than many people give it credit.

No longer can Musharraf hope to issue orders at will without being challenged by a constitutional co-equal body that has the additional strength of legitimacy and political support from the people !!

The question therefore is: Will this change prove lasting? there is every reason to hope that it will. And if it does, then this will prove to be Pakistan's equivalent of the Glorious Revolution of 1688 in England (when the autocrat was forced to accept the Bill of Rights, thus paving the way for UK to become a society ruled by laws rather than by autocrats).

It is now universally recognized that a proper Governance framework is key to further institutional development. So, if this verdict proves lasting, there is indeed reason to celebrate. Even if it takes many more years before the ill effects of dictatorships (religious extremism, dysfunctional ordinances, political uncertainty) as well as the on-going task of modernizing the public sector.

ERRR.....

it has given MUSHARRAF the much needed breathing space, in which he can re-collect his forces.

as inspite of the VICTORY, people have lost a much needed rallying point.

Re: # 21 what forces? what breathing space?

Re: # 25


This CJ Issue was the rallying point, the only rallying point , where most of the politial parties were in agreement.

... on the Karachi Massacres, and Jamia Hafsa , the two OTHER current HOT issues , there is all but lip service.

Musharraf was under increasing pressure , from all around, since this CJ Issue, One after One, event were mounting pressure on him.

One this CJ issue has reached its logical conclusion, and Musharraf , conceding defeat..... it has taken the STEAM off...
...the Pro Musharraff and anti-Musharraff forces, that were at logger heads now, do not have any other battle grounds Now....
except the 'Uniform Issue '

....and with conceding defeat of this CJ front, Musharraff is now out of pressure, at least for the time being.

IMO real change will be brought by the mulla. the "civil" society is too entreched in the corruption to undergo any real change.

All the celebrations and congratulations are justified. This is indeed the first time in Pakistan's history that the judiciary has passed a judgement effectively against the highest authority in the country, and that too a military dictator. So, what's next?

1. The civil society has tasted blood and it is not going to stay quiet now. If Musharraf insists upon getting elected by the Assembly before dissolution or insists upon wearing the uniform, someone is bound to raise the issue in the Court.

2. Musharraf too is probably not too unhappy with the decision. He has no doubt realised that sacking the CJ was a mistake, which had to be corrected. The way in which the govt. withdrew the most serious charges against the CJ even before the court decided shows that it was pretty much prepared for this outcome.

3. Musharraf is probably now putting most, if not all, of his eggs in the Benazir basket. The word on the street is that she has agreed to his remaining President, whether before or after the elections.

So, this phase of military rule is over. But does it mean an end to the cycles of army rule followed by civilians followed by army and so on? I am not so sure. I think that nothing happens in Pakistan without the acquiescence of the public opinion led by the civilian elite. The Court was able to take the decision it did because the successful lawyers' rallies had demonstrated that the army had lost its support. But if the politicians muck up again and another knight in shining arm emerges in the next round, will the court not again comply with the "doctrine of necessity"? Only time will tell!

Re: # 19 "Only time will tell"

Inshallah!! :-)

Post 16 – tahmaed32:

Dear tahmed32:

Yes. You make fair points in your post. Thank you.

But the real focus of my post that you might have overlooked was the last line:

I am not sure how CJ’s protests have fundamentally altered any of the socioeconomic dynamics of the country that forms the bedrock for tradition, law and institutions.

Would you kindly elaborate how current events impact or are indicators of socio-economic dynamics of the country? I think (and studies support it) that it is the socioeconomic underpinning that drives cultural and attitudinal changes in a society.

If such indicators of sustainable change are there that I am not much aware of, it will be a pleasant surprise and a much desired reason for optimism.

Kind regards.

Institutional Change, with the Verdict itself the first and most fundamental institutional change (i.e. the all important change in Governance) that has already taken place.

No longer can Musharraf hope to issue orders at will without being challenged by a constitutional co-equal body that has the additional strength of legitimacy and political support from the people !!

The question therefore is: Will this change prove lasting? there is every reason to hope that it will. And if it does, then this will prove to be Pakistan's equivalent of the Glorious Revolution of 1688 in England (when the autocrat was forced to accept the Bill of Rights, thus paving the way for UK to become a society ruled by laws rather than by autocrats).

It is now universally recognized that a proper Governance framework is key to further institutional development. So, if this verdict proves lasting, there is indeed reason to celebrate. Even if it takes many more years before the ill effects of dictatorships (religious extremism, dysfunctional ordinances, political uncertainty) as well as the on-going task of modernizing the public sector.