The New Bedfellows

#16 ".......my guess is that musharraf takes off his uniform, gets his sins forgiven by the parliament....benazir becomes pm and within a few years, gives him a quite exit to boston........ "

Mian, wasn't it you who gave us all a history lesson on how no Pakistani leader has left in a smooth benign way? Why this turnaround now? I think that the chances of the Mush man making it to Boston are similar to the Saddam man making his escape to Jordan, before the current Iraq war. I think his goose will be cooked in the coming days....literally...He wont give up the uniform unless he first lands in Saudi Arabia and sublets the mian's summer home before making that announcement...

Re: # 16 Dost, Romair

Musharraf will neither take his uniform off nor he will ever quit, since he knows very well what Amaerica does to dictators when they lose power. The fact of the matter is that Bezamir will not come to pakistan at all, because that will end the leverage that Musharaf has over PPP. But on the other hand PPP is now going to replace the sirakri moulvis of MMA who have served their purpose well. So PPP is the new MMA. Mushraf will get himself "elected" through the existing assemblies, PP will support the vote in Parliament and if need be, will help ammend the so-called constitution so that the dicattor cannot be backstabbed by Supreme Court. Keep in mind that even though the SC is "independent" now but it is still subservient to 2/3rd vote in Paliament.

Bezamir, in turn will have all cases removed against her and her husband (which includes murder of her brother). Their wealth will be released and transferred to American banks from Swiss accounts.

But there will be consequnces for that. The existing civil war will intensify against military occupation. Na Pak fouj will try to crush opposition thru murders and kidnappings, as it has been happening for the past eight years. In the next year or so Mushsraf will have to prove his usefulness or otherwise he will be eliminated. At that point Bezamir will enter Pakistan "victoriously" as a replacement for Musharaf.

Nawaz Sharif does not have it in him to lead a popular revolt. Because he does not want to change the status quo of a ruling elite. He is just waiting to sell his mother to the right buyer as he comes along.

THere is no hope except the Iranian way.

{"Uniform is the thing of the past."}

Mufti Sahib,
I will agree with only this statement that you have made. Even Mushy is encouraging all those who should wear uniforms to discard them for security reasons - or rather personal safety reasons. :)

While DM Sahib thinks that Nawaz Besharif will benefit, I think that only the Mullahs can come out on top after this stupid and desperate act by Mushy. While going down, he is taking down Altaf Payee with him. The people of Karachi and Hyderabad support MQM not because it stands for secularism. They support MQM because it ostensibly represents them against the violent and murderous ways of Bezamir Bhutni of PPP and Nawaz Besharif of ML (N).

In the next elections, if MQM follows Altaph Payee or AH in endorsing the Mushy/BB pact, the people of Karachi and Hyderabad will abandon MQM and go for JI, which is the 2nd most powerful party in those cities.

Both BB and NS will not find any votes in NWFP and Baluchistan. Punjab will be split between BB and NS, while Sindh will be split between JI and PPP. Even if BB wins, even in a fair and honest election, people will say Mushy rigged the vote and the Mullahs will take to the streets. The Paki Army is by now fed up with Mushy and the unpleasant frequency of having to kill fellow Pakis all over the country. Mushy is gone, BB won't make a comeback, NS is considered a corrupt tyrant, leaving the Mullahs in charge of Pakistan.

Re: # 19

I think JI finally stands discredited among people of Pakistan at all levels. They have served their purpose for the empire as well. I do not think that they have a political future any more. Therefore, I do not think people of MQM of Karachi and Hyderabad have any choice but to stick with altaf, and altaf has no choice but to stick with dictator. Altaf also has to leave Britain before the muder cases of 5/12 against him get more complicated. Guess where is he gonna go?

Nothing will change in Pakistan. Musharraf will remain a President supported by Benazir Bhutto and will be backstabbed as and when Benzair Bhutto thinks the time is ripe and approval from amreeka has been obtained. Then she will continue part-III of her rule of loot-khasoot. Till another dictator on a shiny tank will overthrow her to improve the lot of common man and promise to return to barracks in 90 days- 3 months- 3 years-or till fired by amreeca. So keep on philosophising about the future but that's how the cookie crumbles. Learn to live with corrupt RULERS of both civilian and army variety.

bulleya#16:

Thanks for correcting about Aitezaz Ahsan's name. My memory is becoming less dependable by the day. :(

"......nawaz sharif has lost 75% of his party.....and in pakistan, people vote for individuals and not for party ideologies......benazir, still, has around 75% of her party intact.....ppp will sweep if bb doesn't hobnob with musharraf......"

As you said, the proliferation of media, esp. electonic media, may have changed these things. In any case, individuals too can read which way the wind is blowing, that is why some of the PML leaders are coming back to Nawaz.

PPP is, of course, hobnobbing with Musharraf. The rider, of course, is that she can read the papers and may retract from any understanding she has reached with Musharraf. If she does that skilfully, she may be able to restore some of her credibility.

Urstruly#18:

There is merit in what you say. A civilian govt. may try Mush for treason, especially if Nawaz Sharif comes to power. Even if BB comes to power, there is no guarantee that she will keep her promise once he gives up his uniform. The best course for Musharraf would be to join his son in Boston before he hands over power to someone else.

Salim#19:

You are ignoring the fact that NS is aligning himself with the Mullas. He has never supported Mush's policies in the Frontier areas and can therefore win there with Mullas' support. I wouldn't be surprised if JI joins him as an ally. But if blood is thicker than water, than Karachi and Hyderabad will in all probability stick with Mush and MQM.

mushy, altaf and ppp ikk paasay
ganja, mullay te niksuk doojay paasay.

dullabhatti#24:

That would be a good slogan for Nawaz. :)

Seriously, if Nawaz has any smart people in his group, they will make sure that the next election is fought on a single agenda: "You are either with Musharraf or against him?"

the feudals of pakistan.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/archive/trial/open/aip/3797

Urstruly#18 : You have made more predictions than even nostroduamus would have dared to make, based on very little than one-line assumptions, and including 4 mutually contradictory predictions (i.e. your predictions #1 and #2 are contradicted by predictions #8 and #9 below). And based on this shabby "analysis and projections", you seek to replace musharraf rule with mullah rule in Pakistan (i.e. when you say at the end "THere is no hope except the Iranian way.")!! With intellectuals like you speaking out on behalf of maulvis, there is no reason to be concerned that we will have a uniformed dictator replaced by a bearded dictator. (Given your love for dictators, perhaps you should move to Cuba, where a Uniformed and Bearded dictator will be at your service).

1. Musharraf will neither take his uniform off nor he will ever quit.

2. Bezamir will not come to pakistan at all.

3. Mushraf will get himself "elected" through the existing assemblies, PP will support the vote in Parliament and...

4. ... if need be, will help ammend the so-called constitution so that the dicattor cannot be backstabbed by Supreme Court.

5. Bezamir, in turn will have all cases removed against her and her husband (which includes murder of her brother).

6. Their wealth will be released and transferred to American banks from Swiss accounts.

7. The existing civil war will intensify against military occupation.

8. In the next year or so Mushsraf will have to prove his usefulness or otherwise he will be eliminated.

9. At that point Bezamir will enter Pakistan "victoriously" as a replacement for Musharaf.

Romair

My money is still on Benazir (=PPP) and Musharaff (=Army) coalition (= power sharing). I also feel this will provide Pakistan stability to restore power to legislative arm of the democracy. Musharraff is a very smart cookie. As a leader, in my rankings, he is there with Indira Gandhi - fighter and survivor, with Pakistan in his heart. Obviously he wants power, which leader does not.

"Hau hai, general saab aap itney payaray insaan haiN, ayse baat mut karayN," Pinky whispered in Musharraf's ear as she gently slid her chin from behind his ear all the way down his shoulders, hugging her exhausted VIP client as she spread herself over him while he lay flat on his stomach.

The tired old soldier had poured his heart out to Pinky when their sweatbeads were mingling between two skins that pushed and slid against one another.

Pinky was not her real name, of course. No one knew her real identity. His dear old friend, Arifa Lazeez, had brought the girl over from Dubai and told him that she had caught him a real prize, a "Behtareen Bitch" as she called the poor tramp. She boosted his sagging vigor which he loved and he wanted to hold on to. It is such a delicious joy. Life is worthless if the vigor is gone.

The general wanted to heed good advice and wished that he could work out a deal where:

1) He would get a three year extension on the term of his military service, and a simultaneous secure tenure as army chief.

2) Nominate a caretaker government and have it approved by parliamentary vote. After that:

3) He agreed to dissolve Parliament and relinquish the office of President himself, giving the new interim government to get a new census and then hold elections.

4) The deal was also to include Judiciary approval.

This would give ALL the players at least something and it would still keep him safe, if only he could keep his mouth shut and his paws out of other women's skirts.

...SR

Re: # 28

anil: "Obviously he wants power, which leader does not. "

No real leader wants power indefinitely, as Musharraf wants.
History is full of examples: After winning the Revolutionary War, e.g., George Washington refused offers to become life President from the US Congress, realizing this would set a bad precedent. Same for Sherman after the Civil War who famously said "if nominated I will not run, if elected I will not serve" when he was being pressured to become US President. In India, Gandhi refused any official position, preferring to apply moral pressure. And these are leaders in politics.

The real leaders of humanity are not even in politics - these are indivduals who have made the real contributions (i.e. scientists, engineers, doctors, thinkers, everyday law abiding citizens who set an example for the next generation by facing life in a courageous manner).

Mush and BB are midgets compared to the real leaders of Pakistan - people like Edhi, Asma Jehangir, and of course the Chief Justice and the counteless journalists (some "disappeared) who are standing up for the rights of the Pakistani people. These are the true patriots who will be long remembered after the midgets are forgotten.

Re: # 28
The compare India Gandhi with General is to call Tigress with goat.Though the grand daughter of man of peace mr. M K Gandhi aka mohamta she had no genes of peace. General is smarter than her he thinks and thinks very cautious to fault. He was about give Kashmir to NS but NS got jittery when general started aiming his nuclear missiles to obliterate india.He lost his courage at last moment and did things he did not wanted to and concede to NS. By nature there are two types he is very cautious and reactive. When he was forced he kicked NS but Kagil Battle was already gone and Kashmir slipped. He could have just kisked NS at war time as at that time he was hero of ALL pakistanies and as general how snatched Kashmir. Same way he said he will not allow BB and NS to come back. He is still army boss and army boss is pakistan he has lost is all "IJJAT" by going to see BB against whom he was always saying bad thing. It is liking man claiming moral behaviour and then hiding under burkha to vist bad vice trading place. It would have been fine he could have acted as a "Man" and gone to see openly former primeminister. By his denial of meeting by both sides is low level drama to obvious. The general is far intelligent than Mrs. Gandhi but too much thinking make him weak.
He was talking against Gazi Brother co. for long time but all talk and no action. When they kidnapped chinese comfort women when leader od china called he lost courage at 11th hour. Again too much thinking what china will do ? China will do nothing , China has more interest in Pakistan than 6 chinese professional expert women. They last year hanged 100,000 people for crimes. Again too much thinking made him weak.
Indira though granddaughter of big man and daughter of great man was NOT EDUCATED. THIS WAS ADVANTAGE OVER BRITISH ARMY TRAINED Y.Khan. She always thought but he was not "rethinking person" to make her weak. Once she made up mind it was easy as she was not rethink and was like tigress. Tigress does not think when she feels her babies are threatened. general is democracy minded she was dictetor typenot thinking type. She told her general to bring plan to cut y.khan to size. First general came he said it can not be done. She said I have not asked your opinion and dismissed him. She asked other general and said I sit here to listen to get answer say it was done, not listening to excuses. One general said USA and China will attack us what we will do, then she said general if do not know what to do find other job.
It is wrong to consider thoughtful general with Gandhi who was not intelluctual type.