Please back off, Benazir!

Pakistan’s post-9/11 “u-turn” was dictated by the simple reality that whether or not the country’s heart was willing to be “with” the USA – it simply had no ability to be “against” the US interests! Size must always be kept in perspective – as seasoned individuals like you must be aware of (except when it comes to dealing with India, of course)!

Regarding Ms. Bhutto – you are trying to make the case that life is too difficult so she should not try to take charge!

My advice (I know – Ms. Bhutto is listening VERY carefully to my words (who would not?!) – just waiting most eagerly for my advice so she can promptly follow) is simple:

If not now, when?! (Ms. Bhutto, should you wait till you get to your seventies and accordingly double your energy level and stamina?)

If not you, Ms. Bhutto, then who?! (That autocratic Nawaz Sharif?)

If I were you, Ms. Bhutto – I would definitely take charge and do my best. In the past, the civilian leaders have been hampered from doing much good because of the khaki interference. This may be one time when the khakis are unsure of themselves – because they fear that US stick potentially coming down hard.

Go for it Ms. BB!! Before the Amrikkan interest wanes – as it invariably would! And this time, make sure to divide up the khakis (like the Indians did five decades ago) – so there NEVER will take place a coup! The khakis look best (and act best) when they remain inside the barracks.

Make sure they do your bidding! This whole “alliance” talk between khakis and the sherwanis (or churidaars) is just that old “alliance” between the tiger and the goat – it only lasts until the tiger gets hungry again and nobody is watching!

If they do not work under civilian control … FIRE THEM!!

(Also Ms. BB, here is a rule of thumb for future which is very well time tested – if HP recommends any particular course – do its exact opposite!)

I have been a supporter of Nawaz Sharif since the start. I also think he wants good relations with India based on economy rather than outside pressure.

It's all to do with ethinicity in Pakistani Politics now . I know most of you will not agree
but ground reality - tells us this - apart from ethinicity - caste / biradari system will play
a huge role.

a) Punjabis are Pro-Nawaz Sharif (on ground) - while against Mushraff because of him being a Urdu Speaking Man.
b) Most Punjabis are against Bibi because shes not from Punjab while Sindis are pro-bibi because of her being one.
c) Q-League agree or not - got big boys in it who happens to be elected 4-5 times through elections -

Now comming back to Bibi-Mushraff deal - whats wrong with it ? Mushraff happens to be the only
leader after Jinnah/Bhutto who did something for the country - and is still doing it. Bibi - happens
to be unlucky because of her husband - but she has learned a important lesson which she will use when
she is elected prime minister for the betterment of Pakistan.
Bhai loog, why is fighting against thugs who close girl schools ; ramp cars into our soldiers ;
enforce there brand of Islam - Americas War ? I agree with American Games but I am sure our boys
in control are good in playing a double a game - which suits us.
Ayub Khan said ' its bad to be America's enemy but fatal to be there ally' - from what I know of our
boys - we learned the lesson right after A.Q Khan incident.
Nawaz Sharif is in a catch 22 situation from the Supreme Court decision - he's now willing to
deal - and his so-called tough talk is only for the cameras.

{Pakistan is at a point where the civilians and the army will have to work together to make progress in the areas of vital national interests.}

what are these vital national interests?

Acha its intresting what Aitazaz Ahsan is up to in London - he bunked PPP's meeting to meet Nawaz Pai - plus rumours are that Bibi is ignoring him at a same time he's a candidate for president in the upcomming presidencial elections - whats going on ?

As for Bibi , I am concerned of her sercurity in Pakistan and when she arrives - shes will get a welcomed by a brain-washed sucide bomber for sure ! I just hope she gets a SSG / CID protocol.

He was given a long leash, accorded utmost respect and treated with kid gloves when he disagreed with some of the proposed US actions in the Tribal areas of Pakistan.


He was treated with kid gloves...the US just went in and did the needful itself...like it did yesterday...and has been doing since 2004...

this is a cocktail of paki self-delusion and wet dreams...

benazir or nawaz..it doesn't matter..a new leash doesn't make a dog a lion..

RE#4
Pakistan's vital national interests:

1 - Keep public primary education system as it is: full of lies, hate and bigotry tinged with religion
2 - Mulla-Army nexus must be kept intact
3 - While at it (#2): evolve an efficient filtering process that separates good, anti-India, Pak. Army supporting Jihadis like JI from bad Hafsa type/AlQaeda type jihadis. Sell bad jihadis' dead bodies to Americans and funnel the revenues to good jihadis.



HP: This kind of doodh-patti analysis sounds very cool in a Pathan Hotel besides railway phaatak. Thank you for bringing me the memories. My suggestion is bring in a Mulla character too in the conversation... He'd clue everyone on how End of Days are actually nearer than we think while sipping his doodh-patti.

"This kind of doodh-patti analysis sounds very cool in a Pathan Hotel besides railway phaatak. Thank you for bringing me the memories. My suggestion is bring in a Mulla character too in the conversation... He'd clue everyone on how End of Days are actually nearer than we think while sipping his doodh-patti."


Dude, that's still a lot of fun!! I love discussing politics in railway compartments when travelling in India.

Though the subject is beaten to pulp by experts, HP came out with some good analysis, esp the conclusions sound very real.

Esp :

'The situation may require a high level of cooperation but the reality check would confirm that any future civilian administration in Pakistan which is headed by Benazir Bhutto will not have a complete support from the army and at some point and that may happen very quickly, the differences would reach an impasse.....'

AND the last paragraph sounds too prophetic.

The mercurial Mush and weak-footed Benazir as PM wud be pitted against each other no matter what the US want them to be like. The Sindhi-Mohajir angle sound 2 weigh in their minds even when they dont seem 2 play it up. Benazir wont act like Shaukat Aziz or Jamali nor Musharraf wud be like Farooq Leghari or Tarar.

The unwritten part of the whole article is that Pakistan is going through a transition from a COAS rule to a civilian rule which hopefully will become a democratic rule. The way things are, the civilians at this point cannot completely ignore the army and what the Generals have to offer. They are an important part of the equation. Over the coming years, the civilians will have to strengthen institutions to put either a complete halt to the military interference or set up some boundaries for the army to operate in.

I have made it a point to show that Benazir perhaps is the most popular leader in Pakistan but she lacks the ability to control the army. Her opinion is that she can use Musharaf w/o the wardi to work with the army. Her assessment is wrong. Once Musharaf gives up Wardi, he will be just another Ghulam Ishaq and after the constitutional amendment, he will be just another Chaudry Fazl Ilahi. That is precisely what Nawaz is thinking. He is ready to make deal with the army but he sees no reason to work with Musharaf.

As I have shown in the article, Benazir will be resisted by the army and eventually the situation would reach a point that, six months to one year later, Pakistan would again be hanging between the Army rule and a Bay-bus Prime Minister rule.

One item that I left out was the CJ’s role in the future government. This guy and the Supreme Court are now prisoners of their own activism. They are now a party to the power in Pakistan. They can save Benazir but imo, the SC would not help Benazir.

Nawaz Sharif is a better candidate who can deal with the army and the SC. Benazir should support the civilian government from the outside. She still has a long way to go and she could be the PM at some point in future.

#1
Since you are discussing with Benazir, I need not interfere.

#2 Posted by stuka

Benazir too wants good relations with India. But relations with India are not of critical value. It is like, yeah! We want good relations with neighbors but we only see them when we put the trash out.

#3 Posted by IB
“a) Punjabis are Pro-Nawaz Sharif (on ground) - while against Mushraff because of him being a Urdu Speaking Man.
b) Most Punjabis are against Bibi because shes not from Punjab while Sindis are pro-bibi because of her being one.”

There is some truth to it but it is not the whole truth. Benazir has strong support in Punjab. Though, the Punjabi intelligentsia is tired of her having no vision for the country. She offers no program, no reforms and makes no valuable contribution to state. She never confronted the army and instead found it convenient to cry in the face of Army’s opposition. Nawaz during his both terms as PM fought with the army bitterly and was able to remove one COAS and would have done that to Musharaf too but his timing was off.

In Sindh, You will be surprised how many people will join Nawaz as soon as gets there. I am Jiya Sindh guy myself.

#4 Posted by jang
“what are these vital national interests?”

Heheh…Delhi par qabza, Bollywood par qabza, Taj Mahal par qabza…..

#11
Good one!
But do you think I gave her sound advice, or not?!

#5 Posted by IB
“its intresting what Aitazaz Ahsan is up to in London”

I was just watching him on TV. He seems to have a message for Nawaz from some interested parties in Pakistan. The way he handled the CJ and kept him away from the mullah group was admirable. He probably will be a very strong person to keep the civilian govts in line in future.

#6

You are not worth anyone’s time….

#7 Posted by Raw_Dust
Badboodar dust.

I am glad you learned something in some pathan’s lap. Railway phaatak? Tells the company you kept….

#9 Posted by VRV

I think you got the hang of it. Benazir and army cannot coexist at this time. Maybe five years down the line things might change.

HP, the sad reality is:

(1) Mushy can NOT give up wardi – even if he wanted to. It is like getting down from a tiger (a very hungry one, too)!

(2) Irrespective of what Mushy does or does not – the khaki institution has no interest in giving up its comfy life-style. Where else one can enjoy such a cushy lifestyle for so little work (if you call occasional beating up of civilians work!)

(3) The only reason the khakis have allowed the civilians even this much latitude is because of pressure from the US – which would continue all the way to November 2008 – the next Presidential election. Uske baad…uske baad…phir wahee dhaak ke teen paat!

I do not expect the politicos to be able to kill off the khaki snake – which is the only way to stop it from its (sooner or later) poison bite to the democratic life!

#7 Raw_Dust

Note how quickly this HP character descended into name-calling when faced with your absolutely accurate hard-hitting observations on the (sad) state of what many Pakistanis consider their "vital interest"!

#6 Arjun

You have a point - although it must be a bitter pill for many Pakistanis to swallo - about the inconsequential state of Pakistani politicos in khaki eyes! :(